ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Important section of the 11 PM discussion.

Data from the Melbourne WSR-88D radar indicates that Arthur has a
complex structure this evening. A mid-level cyclonic circulation
accompanied by a possible eye feature is clearly evident near 27.8N
78.8W. However, the motions of the light showers/low clouds seen in
the radar data suggest that the low-level center is about 25-30 n mi
west of the mid-level center. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Arthur early Wednesday
morning to see if the center has re-formed to the east. Pending the
arrival of the aircraft, the initial intensity remains 45 kt.

very interesting.. we will find out.. lol

[UpTheCreek]

This storm worries me because it is very impressive looking and it did not look like that just 24 hours ago. I am not a meteorologist as mentioned but I think this thing has the potential to get extremely powerful just from my experience being in NC and watching hurricanes form over the years. I have seen weaker looking storms get to 80 or 90 in just a few days.

All you can do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Although it is good news for us in NC (and elsewhere of course) that the NHC has shifted the track a bit eastward.

[NDG]

Important section of the 11 PM discussion.

Data from the Melbourne WSR-88D radar indicates that Arthur has a
complex structure this evening. A mid-level cyclonic circulation
accompanied by a possible eye feature is clearly evident near 27.8N
78.8W. However, the motions of the light showers/low clouds seen in
the radar data suggest that the low-level center is about 25-30 n mi
west of the mid-level center. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Arthur early Wednesday
morning to see if the center has re-formed to the east. Pending the
arrival of the aircraft, the initial intensity remains 45 kt.

Exactly what I noticed 20 minutes ago:

The more I look at the last few frames of the radar loop the more I am starting to see the Arthur is still not vertically stacked, the LLC appears to be just west of the MLC, you can see some light showers heading west on the radar loop just north of where I placed the LLC.
But is getting there little by little.

[Frank2]

The NHC comment about it possibly reforming a center more to the east confirms what some of us were seeing this evening - on the WV loop it appeared to be trending eastward perhaps in a torquing motion or perhaps due to a weakness to the east that could affect the overall track in my opinion...

Frank

[Aric Dunn]

Important section of the 11 PM discussion.

Data from the Melbourne WSR-88D radar indicates that Arthur has a
complex structure this evening. A mid-level cyclonic circulation
accompanied by a possible eye feature is clearly evident near 27.8N
78.8W. However, the motions of the light showers/low clouds seen in
the radar data suggest that the low-level center is about 25-30 n mi
west of the mid-level center. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Arthur early Wednesday
morning to see if the center has re-formed to the east. Pending the
arrival of the aircraft, the initial intensity remains 45 kt.

Exactly what I noticed 20 minutes ago:

The more I look at the last few frames of the radar loop the more I am starting to see the Arthur is still not vertically stacked, the LLC appears to be just west of the MLC, you can see some light showers heading west on the radar loop just north of where I placed the LLC.
But is getting there little by little.

its not that far off were talking 10 to maybe 20 mile there are bands going right through you x for the llc.. clearly a little mid shear hit it this afternoon.. and evening.. but last hour it has improved once again..

[hurricanefloyd5]

@WFTVWeather: Clear circulation 35mi East of 11pm NHC center bears watching. I think we'll have a stronger #TSArthur by AM. http://t.co/PghIMm5eDW

[viberama]

Still a lot of dry air to the Northwest but it's starting to get juicy. That's been slowing down the rapid intensification of this storm.

[NDG]

Click here for a 4 hour radar loop of Arthur, make sure you speed it up all the way to get the best effect. If the mid level circulation has moved 10 miles north overall in 4 hrs is a lot.

[CarolinaNBANFL]

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displ ... duration=4

That is an eye.

[TheAustinMan]

Just about a 36 hour long loop that I compiled (extended from previous editions of the same loop), documenting Invest 91L, subsequent classification, and the supposed MLC swinging about southward, then eastward then northward and later stationary at its present position. See for yourself whether that clear slot is really an eye or not.

[ozonepete]

Someone said microwave?

Thanks, Luis! Still the fastest man on the draw, lol.

[bahamaswx]

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KMLB&prod=bref1&bkgr=black&endDate=20140702&endTime=-1&duration=4

That is an eye.

50mph tropical storms don't have eyes.

[CarolinaNBANFL]

This thing is not a TS it is a hurricane right now. I'll leave it up to the experts but it sure does look like a classic eye to me.

[MGC]

Clearly looks like an eye type feature. I think the MCL is boring down to the surface currently. Would not be suprised if recon discovers this later tonight. If this does occur, I think it will result in an even futher shift to the east of Authur's eventual track, which might be good news for North Carolina's Outer Banks........MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[SFLcane]

Folks Arthur still far from developing a well defind eye.

[CarolinaNBANFL]

We shall see.

[Frank2]

Looking at the radar loop above the center appears to be at the same latitude as the Indian River/Brevard County line...

[Alyono]

This thing is not a TS it is a hurricane right now. I'll leave it up to the experts but it sure does look like a classic eye to me.

Just STOP. Please don't say it is a hurricane without sound data to back it up. Misinfo is spread otherwise

[MaineWeatherNut]

Folks Arthur still far from developing a well defind eye.

The NHC is unsure what the exact Structure of Arthur is. They are waiting until Recon gets in there and can figure it out for sure before increasing winds and decreasing Pressure. From Radar though it certainly appears their position right now is off 30 or so miles to the west. What Radar is showing certainly appears to be at the very least an eye like feature and the NHC even said so... Everything is rotating around that eye like feature and as Aric pointed out there are bands going right through where the NHC has the current position.

[Aric Dunn]

Folks Arthur still far from developing a well defind eye.

we shall see.. though that position pointed out was the last dropsonde and the 5pm and 8pm advisory position. however their last pass found nothing there... but they found a circ under the convection.. continuity is the game.. they completely avoided the area of most concern earlier..