ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

Wow,look at the flight level winds.

Yeap, but I am sure is rain contaminated from the deep convection SE of the LLC. Interesting that they mentioned about a possible eyewall forming.

Flight level winds rain contaminated?

[Aric Dunn]

Wow,look at the flight level winds.

Yeap, but I am sure is rain contaminated from the deep convection SE of the LLC. Interesting that they mentioned about a possible eyewall forming.

Flight level winds rain contaminated?

besides the obvious.. finally there are minobs coming in from recon.. there are plenty of winds in the upper 40s to 50s knot range. still being sheared in the mid levels though and dry air .. but slowly working it out.

[OuterBanker]

I just realized how good Arthur looks. Considering it's only July 1. Conditions in area more like August than July.

[tailgater]

To my eyes we have a MLC over the northern edge of GBI and a LLC east Fort Pierce, and the LLC is is in sadshape on the eastern end. It Could open up. just saying it could

[Blown Away]

If the center is east of Ft. Pierce then Arthur will be making landfall in Florida sometime tonight... you can see the center E of Ft Pierce heading westward. Just my opinion.

I'm at the Ft Pierce inlet... Squally with light winds from the N @10-15 mph... Seas choppy, but not angry like you would expect... Uneventful considering Arthur is just east of me...

[artist]

recon is updating again

[cycloneye]

Here is where plane found the 1003 mb center.

[eastcoastFL]

More red and dark oranges are starting to pop on the radar west of the center.

[northjaxpro]

Beginning to see to first few far outer rain bands from Arthur about to come ashore from St. Augustine southwest to the Palm Coast area. This confirms tht Arthur is finally beginning to moisten the atmosphere to its north.

[Frank2]

the center they fixed that on... has little to no rain around it... lol cant be a eyewall that has to be a typo.

Might be a green airman, but you never know - could be fragments of one but the wind is still in the low TS range (not counting the Flight Level wind observation at 2,000 feet) so it'd be hard to imagine...

"Rookies!" - Radar O'Reilly, MASH

[Aric Dunn]

the red dot is recon center fix.. far removed from the convection.. the mid level circ down there very likely helping to bring yet another vort to track..



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[TheAustinMan]

Even longer NEXRAD animation, courtesy Wunderground NEXRAD radar applet and GIMP for compiling all the individual frames, showing what appears to be multiple incipient vorticies within Arthur.

[northjaxpro]

Based on the latest Recon fix, and where the COC was at earlier, it seems that Arthur is on a slow drift NW if I am not mistaken.

[Aric Dunn]

Even longer NEXRAD animation, courtesy Wunderground NEXRAD radar applet and GIMP for compiling all the individual frames, showing what appears to be multiple incipient vorticies within Arthur.

thats a good loop thank you for posting.. shows the present vort recon flew through coming in from the ese now rotating west to sw.. once the mid shear and dry air lessen then it should deepen pretty quick.

[Frank2]

When you look at the above radar loop you can see the very broad LLC east of Brevard County (discounting the numerous eddies to the south) - per the NHC it's on a 325 heading (earlier I said 330 or 340 - not bad for old eyes : )

[ronjon]

While the pressure is dropping, the MLC is decoupled from LLC. And the LLC is broad lacking convection. Seems to be still struggling to organize. Very poorly organized storm at present.

[AdamFirst]

Is the distinct swirl on radar north of Grand Bahama the MLC?

[Aric Dunn]

I bet recon finds that vort more to the west or even sw from the last pass.. and likely to find a new once they fly through the se quad again.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I bet recon finds that vort more to the west or even sw from the last pass.. and likely to find a new once they fly through the se quad again.

What would that mean Aric

[chaser1]

Anyone else not buying the NW motion NHC is selling?

Yeah Jonathan, I cant help but feel the same way.

I'm convinced that Arthur is still a bit "structurally challanged" and is seemingly tilted SSE to NNW, with the core structure of Arthur still anchored near the western tip of Grand Bahama Island. This doesnt change the fact that upper air conditions are improving and Arthur's over-all structure is looking more impressive with time. Since I dont see any evidence of the mid level core moving closer to the coast (expanding perhaps, but not "moving"), it is only a matter of time for its mid level to begin reacting to the increase southerly steering flow, and then some distinct northward motion of the entire envelope should occur (by sometime tomm.)... and here I am guessing we will see more significant deepening by a more vertically stacked system. I am guessing the motion at some point late tonight or early tomm. will be resolved by NHC indicating a temporary stall, and where in which the mid level circulation begins to catch up with the lower pressure COC.