ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ncbird]

Well guess now that we have our 1st named system, I'll go into storm prep mode for the season, check in and be counted, and say hi to all my old friends here.

NCBird

[kunosoura]

Most recent AVN frame shows a nice spot of increased convection off Grand Bahama, due east of appx. Stuart.

This morning's radar images show the center of the circulation farther to the north, and quite broad. However just a couple of recent frames make it look like a tighter center is trying to form where this increased convection spot is.

I'm no expert but could it be trying to reform a tighter center, and possibly disconnecting from the northern circulation?

Unfortunately I'm not in a position to post images right now, as they'd be sure handy to help make my point. But maybe this description is enough...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SeGaBob]

So there's not really much of a chance for the track to shift westward anymore is there?

(No I'm not wishing it on anyone.)

[NDG]

Ok I'll give my humble opinion

Up here in Daytona Beach, the air is fairly dry and Arthur is still pulling that dry air in. On top of that, all I have to do and go outside and look up at the CB getting sheared off to know the conditions are not perfect but damn he's a fighter.

Not a forecast, just an opinion of a weather junkie

Yeap, there is some low level dry air that has pulled in from the mid Atlantic into NE FL, quite noticeable on vis satellite loop and the TPW image loop below, but Arthur is starting to pull in moisture from the SE GOM so I am sure it will not matter much for it to keep steadily strengthening since especially it is right over the very warm gulf stream current it has plenty of fuel to get going.

[Bocadude85]

Most recent AVN frame shows a nice spot of increased convection off Grand Bahama, due east of appx. Stuart.

This morning's radar images show the center of the circulation farther to the north, and quite broad. However just a couple of recent frames make it look like a tighter center is trying to form where this increased convection spot is.

I'm no expert but could it be trying to reform a tighter center, and possibly disconnecting from the northern circulation?

Unfortunately I'm not in a position to post images right now, as they'd be sure handy to help make my point. But maybe this description is enough...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I just noticed that same feature on the radar out of Melbourne.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=MLB&loop=yes

[ronjon]

Looks like the convection completely covers the COC now and dry air has finally mixed out. Steady intensification looks likely now. Appears on RAD that the center is due east of St Lucie now.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=mlb&loop=yes

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Storm Arthur

[viberama]

Sure looks to me like the broad center is moving almost due west from the obs of the mlb radar.

[xironman]

That cirrus expanding north makes you think its shear problems are basically over.

[ronjon]

We may see the center relocate to the deepest convection now and should tighten up. Its not moving much so not sure if upwelling will keep intensity under wraps over the next 24 hrs.

[Dave C]

The waters of the gulf stream are always in motion so don't think upwelling would be an issue.

[BobHarlem]

Is the center trying to relocate to the southwest near the convection, or it just radar playing optical illusion tricks? It would be about 40 miles closer to land than the NHC's center if so.

[UpTheCreek]

Well guess now that we have our 1st named system, I'll go into storm prep mode for the season, check in and be counted, and say hi to all my old friends here.

NCBird

Hi, old friend! Hope you are well, just completed my chores. I guess I'll have plenty of mower fuel after Arthur passes. At least I hope to!

[Bocadude85]

I wonder why parts of the Northwestern Bahamas are not under a TS Warning. I know that they are feeling the same effects as they were yesterday while this was a depression.. just seems to me that Grand Bahama is taking the brunt of the storm right now.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Is the llcc east of palm beach/west palm beach under all that convection?

[nativefloridian]

I wonder why parts of the Northwestern Bahamas are not under a TS Warning. I know that they are feeling the same effects as they were yesterday while this was a depression.. just seems to me that Grand Bahama is taking the brunt of the storm right now.

Agreed.

[Bocadude85]

Is the llcc east of palm beach/west palm beach under all that convection?

Perhaps a center relocation going on? The LLC the NHC is tracking seems to be slowly heading west towards the Florida east coast.

[psyclone]

This thing is really looking impressive. I was a skeptic and referred a couple of days back to it being "early season lameness"...but at this point that looks very wrong. a few of these types of events could easily allow this season to vault over what is a very low bar. Good luck to everyone and remember that even if the weather is fair at your east coast location dangerous rip currents and swells will present a significant danger, especially with all the holiday vactioners on the beaches. be super careful out there.

[Frank2]

Serves me right for posting comments without checking the loops first (guess I was loopy : ) but earlier today pre-Arthur wasn't very impressive looking at all, but now it does look better organized and even looks like a viable TS at this time, though glad that it does appear to be showing a more northward motion (hopefully it'll take the right side of the cone and remain offshore the Carolinas)...

Oh, well - that's what happens when I'm not entirely focused on the weather : )

Frank

[hurricanefloyd5]

Is the llcc east of palm beach/west palm beach under all that convection?

Perhaps a center relocation going on? The LLC the NHC is tracking seems to be slowly heading west towards the Florida east coast.

You think so? I think so