ATL: ARTHUR - Models

[capepoint]

CMC is pretty far right but the rest are still fairly well clustered, maybe shifted a little right but it was the 18z run and some wobble is to be anticipated, especially until a center actually forms and gives the models something to lock onto. Intensity is about the same, strong
TS/ minimal H at NC

[USTropics]

Am I reading the models wrong or did the 18z runs drastically change the forecast path and strength of this storm? It seems like most of them have it now doing a big ole "right turn Clyde".

[USTropics]

What is the shear like ahead of the storm? With no land interaction, hurricane status may not be all out of the question...

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      INVEST  AL912014  07/01/14  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    33    37    41    44    51    56    61    67    72    72    71    63
V (KT) LAND       30    33    37    41    44    51    56    61    67    72    72    71    63
V (KT) LGE mod    30    33    35    38    40    45    50    55    60    64    64    59    52
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  EXTP  EXTP

SHEAR (KT)         9    11     9    11    10    13    12    13    15    13    36    48    58
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -6    -1    -1    -4    -4    -3    -4    -1    -4    -4    -4    -3    -5
SHEAR DIR        345     3    11    12    14   355   347     5   327   281   241   234   232
SST (C)         28.1  28.2  28.3  28.3  28.3  28.1  27.9  27.5  27.5  26.4  24.4  20.8  16.2
POT. INT. (KT)   135   135   137   137   138   136   134   129   131   120   104    85    73
ADJ. POT. INT.   113   112   113   113   115   115   114   110   112   105    92    77    69
200 MB T (C)   -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -53.6 -54.1 -53.5 -54.2 -53.8
TH_E DEV (C)      10    10    10    12    13    11    14    10    11     4     5     1     1
700-500 MB RH     56    51    51    52    49    50    53    53    54    47    43    43    43
GFS VTEX (KT)     10    10    11    11    11    11    10    10    11    13    15    20    20
850 MB ENV VOR   -14   -32   -45   -32   -39   -51   -44   -26    -1    -2   -15     0    12
200 MB DIV        -3     7    20     8     4     6    12    26    34    37    26    40    15
700-850 TADV       0     0     0     0    -1    -2     1    -5     7    -5   -19   -34   -32
LAND (KM)        124   104    84    75    67    81   133   153    91    21   231   236   168
LAT (DEG N)     27.6  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x
LONG(DEG W)     79.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)     3     2     2     2     3     6     7     8    12    16    19    19    18
HEAT CONTENT      31    31    29    26    24    19    18    23     8     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):205/  5      CX,CY:  -1/ -4
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  474  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  27.3 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  56.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   1.   2.   4.   8.  12.  16.  19.  19.  19.  18.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.   9.   8.   8.   5.   0.  -7.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   2.   4.   6.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   5.   6.   6.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.  -1.  -4.  -6.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   1.   3.   6.   6.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -6.  -5.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   1.   2.   3.   2.   2.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   7.  11.  14.  21.  26.  31.  37.  42.  42.  41.  33.

   ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014     INVEST 07/01/14  00 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-49.5 to  33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.9
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  10.2 Range: 28.8 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.8
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  27.3 Range: 37.5 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.4
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  60.6 Range: 43.2 to  93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  83.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.3
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  28.2 Range:  0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :   7.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  51.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    16% is   1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     9% is   1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     5% is   1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     4% is   1.5 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912014     INVEST 07/01/14  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014     INVEST 07/01/2014  00 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED

[Alyono]

GFS and CMC are indicating winds near or at hurricane intensity with the 0Z runs. Impressive for global models

[supercane4867]

00Z HWRF how awful

[Alyono]

borderline cat 1/cat 2 for HWRF

[Alyono]

GFS and EC have shifted a good bit east in the latest runs

[TheStormExpert]

GFS and CMC are indicating winds near or at hurricane intensity with the 0Z runs. Impressive for global models

May be giving credit to the Euro when this is all said and done.

[tolakram]

Euro has gone a tad right and looks to just miss the outer banks now. Hopefully that trend will continue. 988mb at 72 hours, 978 at 96 hours and racing NE away from the coast.

Lower rez animation: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2014070100&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[tolakram]

6Z GFS, on the other hand, now has a 984mb storm bullseye over Hatteras at 78 hours. Nice of the GFS to wake up and see the storm now.

Of course with all the globals intensity is sketchy, but I think what Alyono meant was it's impressive how deep the GFS and Canadian make this storm.

[NDG]

GFS and CMC are indicating winds near or at hurricane intensity with the 0Z runs. Impressive for global models

May be giving credit to the Euro when this is all said and done.

No doubt about it if anything we should be already giving credits to the Euro, the GFS never wanted to develop it and the CMC/GEM not only was not doing much with it but it was sending it out to Sea since the low pressure formed off the SC coast 3 days ago.
Looks like the King is back this year for the Atlantic.

[OuterBanker]

Remarkable, Euro and GFS in agreement in 0z run. Simular track and intensity. GFS now appraching minimum hurricane gusts on the OBX. Euro still a bit stronger.

[OuterBanker]

GFS and CMC are indicating winds near or at hurricane intensity with the 0Z runs. Impressive for global models

May be giving credit to the Euro when this is all said and done.

No doubt about it if anything we should be already giving credits to the Euro, the GFS never wanted to develop it and the CMC/GEM not only was not doing much with it but it was sending it out to Sea since the low pressure formed off the SC coast 3 days ago.
Looks like the King is back this year for the Atlantic.

Agreed, GFS has really been bad. Made ghost storms in the Gulf out of something tha didn't exist then didn't make anything from something that did.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS and CMC are indicating winds near or at hurricane intensity with the 0Z runs. Impressive for global models

May be giving credit to the Euro when this is all said and done.

No doubt about it if anything we should be already giving credits to the Euro, the GFS never wanted to develop it and the CMC/GEM not only was not doing much with it but it was sending it out to Sea since the low pressure formed off the SC coast 3 days ago.
Looks like the King is back this year for the Atlantic.

After the GFS earlier this month had done poorly with 90L and the W. Caribbean phantom storm I assumed the Euro might be onto something.

[OuterBanker]

Maybe instead of spending millions of dollars to upgrade the GFS the past couple of years they should have spent millions of Euros.

[tropicwatch]

Maybe instead of spending millions of dollars to upgrade the GFS the past couple of years they should have spent millions of Euros.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Where can I find the Euro model runs? I have been able to find the GFS, but obviously it isn't doing such a good job this year.

[tolakram]

Where can I find the Euro model runs? I have been able to find the GFS, but obviously it isn't doing such a good job this year.

I linked to one a few posts up. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

I use WeatherBell Premium for the higher rez versions.

The tropical Atlantic EWALL has them: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewalltropatl.html

Instant weather maps has a version: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/ecmwf.php

and tcgen has it as well: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Where can I find the Euro model runs? I have been able to find the GFS, but obviously it isn't doing such a good job this year.

I linked to one a few posts up. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

I use WeatherBell Premium for the higher rez versions.

The tropical Atlantic EWALL has them: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewalltropatl.html

Instant weather maps has a version: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/ecmwf.php

and tcgen has it as well: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

Thanks Tolakram

[Jevo]

Hey Gang.. Didn't expect to see ya'll here so soon. I really need to update my bookmarks.

GFS Ensembles