ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

That blow up of convection right over the center did it for the NHC. They had to go with it after that. Fine call imho, not too early, not too late. Carolinas certainly get the worst of this the way it looks right now, especially North Carolina.

Reporting for duty.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Tropical Storm Warning
AMZ111-011530-
ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W-
1004 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...

.OVERNIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SE WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT N OF 29N W OF 79W...AND 8 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.TUE...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N
OF 29N W OF 79W...AND SE TO S 30 TO 35 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS 8 TO
11 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.TUE NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. N OF 29N W OF
79W...E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...INCREASING TO 30 TO 35 KT
LATE. ELSEWHERE...SE TO S WINDS 35 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10
FT...BUILDING TO 13 FT LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS.
.WED...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. N OF 29N W OF 79W...E
TO SE WINDS 35 TO 40 KT...INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KT LATE.
ELSEWHERE...S WINDS 35 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. N OF 29N W OF
79W...S WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. ELSEWHERE...S WINDS 35 TO 40 KT...
INCREASING TO 45 TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.THU...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE N OF 29N W OF 79W.
ELSEWHERE N OF 30N S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. S
OF 30N S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N PART.
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT N OF 29N E OF
79W AND 3 TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS NE PART.
.FRI...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT...S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

$$
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[Aric Dunn]

the nhc position is dead center in between the 2 vorts.. depending one where it consolidates will determine if it goes over land tomorrow.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

And the 2014 season has officially kicked off! Who needs the World Cup eh?


Convection is looking good tonight. I expect a slightly more organized storm tomorrow.

Last Minute Goal!! June 2014 Atlantic Ocean Basin gets at least a T.D. !!!!!

Hope the worst stays off shore for everyone....looks like the track is a clipper-wise one.. thoughts/corrections?

Won't matter either way for me. July 4th plans are ruined. Gonna be an indoor day. Maybe I'll cook up some shrimp and Mahi Mahi.

Yeah, I am sure the Battleship Blast and the Southport fireworks are going to have to be postponed.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

That blow up of convection right over the center did it for the NHC. They had to go with it after that. Fine call imho, not too early, not too late. Carolinas certainly get the worst of this the way it looks right now, especially North Carolina.

Reporting for duty.

That makes 3 of us from the Wilmington region.

[Aric Dunn]

That northern vort clearly on a westward motion heading right to melbourne area.. though it should begin to bend to the wsw and sw as the 2 vorts rotate around..

[SouthernBreeze]

That makes 3 of us from the Wilmington region.

Count me #4, at the NC/SC Line... Little River, SC

Thankfully we just get the remnants of what you folks in NC get though!

[Frank2]

It appears the entire system is now heading northward though the individual swirls are rotating westward...

I'm sorry if the July 4th plans of some might be cancelled further north, though glad that I can be at ease if I need to go in the hospital tomorrow - stressful enough without have a potential storm just offshore had that happened...

Frank

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Well between the 4 of us and our buddies up in the Outer Banks, we should have pretty good coverage of conditions as this thing comes ashore if it goes as models runs have been showing.

[Aric Dunn]

It appears the entire system is now heading northward though the individual swirls are rotating westward...

I'm sorry if the July 4th plans of some might be cancelled further north, though glad that I can be at ease if I need to go in the hospital tomorrow - stressful enough without have a potential storm just offshore had that happened...

Frank

both vorts cant be rotating the same direction.. also dont forget expanding building convection often leads to systems looking like they are going a certain direction. .. its pretty much drifting right now. likely doing cyclonic loops.


I also would not be surprised if yet another vort developed farther to the south in the convection.. looking at velocities the low to mid level circ appears to be ene of palm beach while the "mean" center between the vorts is east vero beach..

[ozonepete]

Won't matter either way for me. July 4th plans are ruined. Gonna be an indoor day. Maybe I'll cook up some shrimp and Mahi Mahi.

Yeah, I am sure the Battleship Blast and the Southport fireworks are going to have to be postponed.

According to the path forecast you should be on the backside of this storm on Friday with clearing skies, drier air and breezy conditions. You should be able to get it all in. Thursday will be your bad day. So you can be cautiously optimistic.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Won't matter either way for me. July 4th plans are ruined. Gonna be an indoor day. Maybe I'll cook up some shrimp and Mahi Mahi.

Yeah, I am sure the Battleship Blast and the Southport fireworks are going to have to be postponed.

According to the path forecast you should be on the backside of this storm on Friday with clearing skies, drier air and breezy conditions. You should be able to get it all in. Thursday will be your bad day. So you can be cautiously optimistic.

I will maintain your cautious optimism OzonePete, but we both know that if is wobbles west just the slightest bit from the NHC projections, Friday will be spent in cleanup mode and possible damage assessment. I don't know how that would go with being in a festive mood for the city officials.

[ozonepete]

That blow up of convection right over the center did it for the NHC. They had to go with it after that. Fine call imho, not too early, not too late. Carolinas certainly get the worst of this the way it looks right now, especially North Carolina.

Reporting for duty.

No surprise here. You are in one of the main hurricane centers on the east coast.

[ozonepete]

According to the path forecast you should be on the backside of this storm on Friday with clearing skies, drier air and breezy conditions. You should be able to get it all in. Thursday will be your bad day. So you can be cautiously optimistic.

I will maintain your cautious optimism OzonePete, but we both know that if is wobbles west just the slightest bit from the NHC projections, Friday will be spent in cleanup mode and possible damage assessment. I don't know how that would go with being in a festive mood for the city officials.

Yeah I hear you. And that's a good point. I'm counting on you staying on the weaker side of this one but just stay safe and good luck.

[Old-TimeCane]

That makes 3 of us from the Wilmington region.

Count me #4, at the NC/SC Line... Little River, SC

Make that 5. I don't post much, but I'm hanging around here and reading all the time. I'm in Conway. I work up in North Myrtle.

[Aric Dunn]

Notice the wind direction from the ship taken 24 min ago.. and look at the wind direction at the 2 buoys to the north.. also if you look at the radar loop you can clearly see the north vort .. and the wind direction from the ship points out the location ( in general) of the other.. nhc posistion pretty much right on the "mean" location a couple hour ago they rotated beyond that.. .




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[NC George]

Well between the 4 of us and our buddies up in the Outer Banks, we should have pretty good coverage of conditions as this thing comes ashore if it goes as models runs have been showing.

I'll always provide the slightly interior NC report from Greenville, NC; we're just inland of the tip of the northern branch of the Pamlico Sound. As an added bonus, I have a real barometer this year!

[USTropics]

Looking good this morning. Surface/Ship reports indicating the LLC is tucked underneath the northern side of the recent convective blowup.

[USTropics]

Jeff Masters early morning thoughts:

The Atlantic's first tropical depression of 2014 is here, as Tropical Depression One finally formed at 11 pm EDT Monday evening from disturbance 91L. TD 1 was drifting southwest at 2 mph towards the east coast of Central Florida early Tuesday morning. Long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida on Tuesday morning showed that bands of heavy rain from TD 1 were affecting the Northwest Bahamas, and sustained winds of 33 mph gusting to 36 mph were observed at Settlement Point in the Northwest Bahama Islands at 2 am EDT. Satellite loops showed heavy thunderstorms were limited to the south side of TD 1's center of circulation, and were slowly increasing in intensity and areal coverage. The counter-clockwise circulation of an upper level high pressure over Florida was bringing northerly winds over TD 1 at high altitude, and these winds were creating moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots. Water vapor satellite loops showed very dry air to the north of TD 1, and the northerly winds were driving this dry air in the heart of the storm, interfering with development, and keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the north side of the circulation. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will investigate TD 1 on Tuesday morning, and the NOAA jet is scheduled to fly Tuesday afternoon.

Forecast for TD 1
Steering currents are weak off of the Southeast U.S. coast, but the models are in good agreement on the track. The disturbance should continue a slow southwesterly motion through Tuesday morning, then turn northwards or north-northwestwards on Tuesday afternoon, and move parallel to the Florida coast without making landfall in Florida, as the storm responds to a trough of low pressure passing to the north. Heavy rains of 2 - 4" will likely affect the Northwest Bahamas and eastern coast of Florida Tuesday through Wednesday. By Wednesday, the models are in agreement that TD 1 will turn northeast without hitting the coast of South Carolina, but potentially pass very near the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday morning. The 6Z Tuesday run of the SHIPS model showed the atmosphere surrounding TD 1 will stay dry this week, with the wind shear staying light to moderate, near 10 knots. This dry air, in combination with potentially moderate wind shear, should keep development slow. The storm will be over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, so the extra heat energy available to the storm will help counteract to dry air and wind shear, though. The official NHC forecast of a high-end 70 mph Tropical Storm Arthur on Friday, as the storm makes its closest approach to North Carolina, is a reasonable one. A much weaker storm is also possible, if dry air and wind shear continue to interfere with development this week.

[supercane4867]

Buoy observation near Freeport shows lowering pressure and increasing wind with a peak gust of 37kt recorded in the past hour