ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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SunnyThoughts
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Re:

#441 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:03 pm

Alyono wrote:HORRENDOUS decision by NHC



I'm assuming the fact that its a holiday weekend coming up and you think NHC should have upgraded and put out watches/warnings in order to give the public/tourists a heads up as to whats coming their way up in the carolinas?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#442 Postby Frank2 » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:03 pm

Alyono, I'd have to agree with the NHC this time - James Franklin is very good at what he does and probably because of the 5 mph forward speed, dry air and confidence that the system will be turning to the W and then N or NE the decision was made to hold off, but he left the door open to a quick upgrade if things suddenly change...
Last edited by Frank2 on Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#443 Postby Alyono » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:03 pm

This clearly meets the TD criteria. Well defined circ, organized convection, winds of 25-30 KT
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Re: Re:

#444 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:05 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:
Alyono wrote:HORRENDOUS decision by NHC



I'm assuming the fact that its a holiday weekend coming up and you think NHC should have upgraded and put out watches/warnings in order to give the public/tourists a heads up as to whats coming their way up in the carolinas?

nhc has criteria for their products and holidays arent part of the criteria
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#445 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:06 pm

Alyono wrote:This clearly meets the TD criteria. Well defined circ, organized convection, winds of 25-30 KT


I thought they would have at least given it a TD status. :roll:
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Re: Re:

#446 Postby robbielyn » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:06 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:
Alyono wrote:HORRENDOUS decision by NHC



I'm assuming the fact that its a holiday weekend coming up and you think NHC should have upgraded and put out watches/warnings in order to give the public/tourists a heads up as to whats coming their way up in the carolinas?

It's only Monday. If people watch twc or local weather they can hear about it. People usually see what the weather is going to be like. It's not yet a td. It's almost there.. there will be plenty of time to alert people.
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Re:

#447 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:06 pm

Alyono wrote:HORRENDOUS decision by NHC


I think HORRENDOUS might be a slight overstatement.
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#448 Postby hurricanekid416 » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:08 pm

It looks to be wrapping up a little
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Re: Re:

#449 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:08 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:
Alyono wrote:HORRENDOUS decision by NHC



I'm assuming the fact that its a holiday weekend coming up and you think NHC should have upgraded and put out watches/warnings in order to give the public/tourists a heads up as to whats coming their way up in the carolinas?

nhc has criteria for their products and holidays arent part of the criteria


Well I know a holiday weekend isnt part of NHC's criteria, but taking into account how many folks are on vacation this week...there are more folks along the coast than normal therefore more folks to inform about whats going on.
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#450 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:09 pm

Convection really get going on the south side and it is diurnal minimum right now so that is a good sign for this system as far as development chances:

Saved loop:
Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#451 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:09 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:
Alyono wrote:HORRENDOUS decision by NHC



I'm assuming the fact that its a holiday weekend coming up and you think NHC should have upgraded and put out watches/warnings in order to give the public/tourists a heads up as to whats coming their way up in the carolinas?

nhc has criteria for their products and holidays arent part of the criteria

That's really sad when you think about it. :eek:
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#452 Postby Frank2 » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:10 pm

I think the reason for the NHC decision is current push of hot dry air off the SE that has once again ended any convection to the north of the small LLC, so perhaps this 1/2 of a system doesn't meet the Dvorak criteria...
Last edited by Frank2 on Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#453 Postby Nimbus » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:10 pm

Alyono wrote:This clearly meets the TD criteria. Well defined circ, organized convection, winds of 25-30 KT


Its had a closed circulation for a couple days, and we have seen naked circulations dissipate.

Forecasting for the east coast of Florida is a challenge because of the mandatory prep machinery that has been implemented since, well "the big one".

People panic and get chased up and down the coast for nothing during any landfall window longer than about 24 hours.
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Re:

#454 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:11 pm

gatorcane wrote:Convection really get going on the south side and it is diurnal minimum right now so that is a good sign for this system as far as development chances:

Saved loop:
Image

The convection needs to wrap around and not look like two blobs in order to be classified.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#455 Postby maxx9512 » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:15 pm

Maybe it's just an illusion but looking at this radar from SFWMD it seems to be moving faster south/southwest than it has been.
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_mlb2_anim.gif
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#456 Postby SeGaBob » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:16 pm

I think the models may have to rethink the whole NE motion idea (at least for a while) if this keeps going SW for much longer.




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#457 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:18 pm

I just got here and I have a question.

If this storm keeps moving south, does it change where it might go?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#458 Postby capepoint » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:18 pm

fci wrote:
capepoint wrote:that didn't take long lol. An eastern NC tv met just posted on the stations facebook page that recon found 50 kt tropical cyclone winds and we would have a TS at 5, along with watches. Pulling the ratings trigger a little soon???? :roll:


The Facebook page that was linked DID NOT say that recon found 50 KT winds!
It said that people could expect POSSIBLE 50 KT winds!



I didn't want to list the station, but since you called me out, it was wcti weather center 12, meteorologist Johnathan. The Chief Met there has since refined the statement by the newer met.
And I didn't link a page. I do enough to get myself in trouble, please don't help me.. :)

WCTI StormTrack 12
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BREAKING: RECON Hurricane hunters found 50kt winds (58mph) this is tropical storm winds. TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR to be named shortly. ----Jonathan
Last edited by capepoint on Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#459 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:20 pm

galaxy401 wrote:I just got here and I have a question.

If this storm keeps moving south, does it change where it might go?


it sure would.. must go quite off track though.. the north and ne motion going to happen regardless but when and how sharp is key
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#460 Postby Frank2 » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:22 pm

Weak systems are hard to track and forecast technology or no - but looking at the loops a push of hot dry air is moving south and has dried out the atmosphere to the north of the system, and right now as another poster said two blobs are the main feature, but two blobs this hour can weaken to CB cirrus in another 3 hours, so good decision by the NHC (just my guess)...
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