ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

Squall lines have been steady moving through here on the Treasure Coast since lunch time. Rain has been relatively steady and heavy at times.

[jlauderdal]

Looks like West Palm Beach might get a pretty good band of showers from 91L this afternoon.

i can see it coming from the north, odd to see thunderstorms coming at us from due north..interesting system for so early at least for the very very small percentage of people on this board it will actually affect

[tgenius]

I doubt that Miami/Kendall will get much from that system as it stands now, but apparently the POP for this area for this afternoon/evening is pretty high so who knows..

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like West Palm Beach might get a pretty good band of showers from 91L this afternoon.

Sure does. They've been passing through with quick down pours in Stuart today.

[adam0983]

The further southwest the center moves the more rain West Palm Beach and South Florida will get.

[ronjon]

That's a great radar loop Mark and it shows the motion pretty good and also it shows the new convection popping around the center. I'd say it's getting its act together and feeding off of those very warm GS waters.

Yes, clearly still maintaining SSW motion. Too many people are already saying it's stalled or changed direction.....

Actually both the EC and GFS bring the low very close to WPB-St Lucie by tomorrow morning..So based on the models, I'd expect a SW motion to continue at least the next 12 hours. Appears from RAD returns that it might be accerlerating a little now to the SW. Actual center location really makes not much difference for the weather expected along the FL east coast. I'd expect something weak, a TD perhaps that slowly moves north along the coast after tomorrow morning. There is still alot of dry air entrained in the system and that will take a few days most likely to work its way out.

[TheAustinMan]

Composite of radar base reflectivity with RGB enhanced visible satellite image. Courtesy GOES East satellite.

[eastcoastFL]

So in this scenario I live in Palm City work in Stuart and if it gets south as far as west palm we would get rained on heading south and then again when it heads back north? Gonna be a crappy next couple of days for driving.

That's a great radar loop Mark and it shows the motion pretty good and also it shows the new convection popping around the center. I'd say it's getting its act together and feeding off of those very warm GS waters.

Yes, clearly still maintaining SSW motion. Too many people are already saying it's stalled or changed direction.....

Actually both the EC and GFS bring the low very close to WPB-St Lucie by tomorrow morning..So based on the models, I'd expect a SW motion to continue at least the next 12 hours. Appears from RAD returns that it might be accerlerating a little now to the SW. Actual center location really makes not much difference for the weather expected along the FL east coast. I'd expect something weak, a TD perhaps that slowly moves north along the coast after tomorrow morning. There is still alot of dry air entrained in the system and that will take a few days most likely to work its way out.

[tropicwatch]

Large blow up of showers on the west side.

[tolakram]

Based on the rapid SW movement (this loop is just 30 minutes of images) I would say the LLC is being pulled under that convection.

Live Loop:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&map=latlon

[jaxfladude]

that didn't take long lol. An eastern NC tv met just posted on the stations facebook page that recon found 50 kt tropical cyclone winds and we would have a TS at 5, along with watches. Pulling the ratings trigger a little soon????

It may be it being the July 4th week and all, lots of people on the beaches this week up down the E.C. Hope the met is thinking forward for safety sake and not "ratings".

edit: Read down the thread that the 50kt is not official....

[capepoint]

I'll trade you my next couple of days for yours......... Cape Lookout lighthouse is 10 miles from my house.....

So in this scenario I live in Palm City work in Stuart and if it gets south as far as west palm we would get rained on heading south and then again when it heads back north? Gonna be a crappy next couple of days for driving.




Actually both the EC and GFS bring the low very close to WPB-St Lucie by tomorrow morning..So based on the models, I'd expect a SW motion to continue at least the next 12 hours. Appears from RAD returns that it might be accerlerating a little now to the SW. Actual center location really makes not much difference for the weather expected along the FL east coast. I'd expect something weak, a TD perhaps that slowly moves north along the coast after tomorrow morning. There is still alot of dry air entrained in the system and that will take a few days most likely to work its way out.

[/quote]

[Aric Dunn]

Based on the rapid SW movement (this loop is just 30 minutes of images) I would say the LLC is being pulled under that convection.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&map=latlon

yeah, however Its likely a cyclonic loop.. the convection the east is also increasing... it will follow any lowering of pressure.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the composite radar loop out of Melbourne, still looking like it is moving SW. Not seeing any stalling yet:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... B&loop=yes

[Frank2]

My earlier guesss was wrong and the latest image shows the LLC still moving SW - right now the center appears to be at 28N 78.8W (unofficial)...

[eastcoastFL]

No thanks. It looks like its going to be all clear for us come Friday for the 4th!

[quote="capepoint"]I'll trade you my next couple of days for yours......... Cape Lookout lighthouse is 10 miles from my house.....

[TheAustinMan]

Surface analysis is indicating that the pressure gradient on the western side of Invest 91L is a bit steeper than on the eastern side, which may indicate that if convection wraps around, sustained winds may be strongest on that western side. Correct me if I'm wrong -


Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/

[SunnyThoughts]

Headed out Thursday afternoon to Orlando area...and coming back Friday...gotta pick up the hubby down there, looks like we are in for a rainy trip. Wish it would push on out to the north before mid to late week. There isn't any chance this continues its SW movement and ends up in the GOM is there?

[Aric Dunn]

latest sat and radar showing a turn more southerly even recon looks to be south of last pass. though again it very likely a cyclonic loop as the center is following the developing convection the east and se.

[Aric Dunn]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

you can see the turn more southerly.