ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheAustinMan]

If Invest 91L develops into the first tropical cyclone of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, it will continue an odd pattern (or interesting coincidence) which began in 1997 of first-storm-of-season cyclogenesis off the United States Southeast Coast. It's a far fetched pattern, but starting in 1997 it's worked every single time, and is probably helped by the fact that this area is a good one for harboring tropical cyclones early in a hurricane season.

1997 - The first TC of the season (Unnamed Subtropical Storm) develops of the US SE coast, and then for good measure Tropical Storm Ana also does it too.
+2 years
1999 - The first TC of the season (Tropical Storm Arlene) develops a bit southeast of Bermuda, but still on the same latitude as about Melborune, FL
+3 years
2002 -The first TC of the season (Tropical Storm Arthur) develops right off the US SE coast
+2 years
2004 - The first TC of the season (Hurricane Alex) develops off the US SE coast
+3 years
2007 - The first TC of the season (Subtropical Storm Andrea) develops off the US SE coast
+ 2 years
2009 - The first TC of the season (Tropical Depression One) develops off the US SE coast
+ 3 years
2012 - The first TC of the season (Tropical Storm Beryl) develops off the US SE coast
+ 2 years
2014 - There is a good chance that it'll happen again.

[Aric Dunn]

The low level cloud deck on the immediate east and south east side are thickening could be looking at a increase in convection over the next couple hours closer to if not right around the center.. north side likely to stay convection less longer.

[supercane4867]

Recon data looks more than sufficient for an upgrade to high-end TD status

[hurricanefloyd5]

Recon reported 38mph winds

[cycloneye]

Recon data looks more than sufficient for an upgrade to high-end TD status

Yep,close circulation and some decent flight level winds between 30-33kts.

[artist]

West Palm pressure at 9 this morning 1016.0
At 2 pm 1014.3
At 3 pm 1014.0

[Aric Dunn]

Recon data looks more than sufficient for an upgrade to high-end TD status

Im pretty sure given the forecast and currently organization that they will likely at 5 make it a td. the forecast is pretty straight forward.

[tolakram]

Live sat loop for those that missed it. Convection does look to be increasing.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&map=latlon

[gatorcane]

I agree, an upgrade to a T.D. at 5pm EST makes sense.

Question will be what watches and warnings will we see for the East Coast and NE Coast of Florida?

[Frank2]

If you look at the VIS 1/2 mi loop the small center has begun to make a counter-clockwise loop in the past 2 hours, so perhaps its SSW motion has ended now that the northerly influence is weakening and that would be consistent with some models that keep it east of Florida...

[Weatherboy1]

I would think TS Watch goes up from Jupiter Inlet north to Daytona or maybe Jax area if they upgrade this to a TD at 5 or a bit later today. Could extend it a bit further south just in case but not very far in my opinion.

[tolakram]

The latest GFS run has the low meandering on and off shore so it might be prudent to issue a TSW for the Florida east coast if you're going with a blend of the euro and GFS solutions, which would bring this darn close to shore.

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[tolakram]

Disclaimer reminder: If you are making predictions make sure to include the disclaimer. It IS ok to place it in your signature.

[Aric Dunn]

If you look at the VIS 1/2 mi loop the small center has begun to make a counter-clockwise loop in the past 2 hours, so perhaps its SSW motion has ended now that the northerly influence is weakening...

typical center motion like that due mostly to convection pulling on it.. being that just before the center does a loop convection begins or is about to begin causing a lowering of pressure in that general direction.. so being that the low level cloud deck is thickening to the east and SE side convection may be about to increase and thus causing small wobbles. have to wait and see. radar is quite helpful at this point being that its more real time than sat..

[TheAustinMan]

We will see how quickly the center tries to meet up with convection, or vice versa. Zoomed in loop provided below.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 301445.GIF

[hurricanefloyd5]

Will there be inland watches and warning here in central Florida?

[eastcoastFL]

Its been dark and on and off rain here in the port st lucie area today. Our local forecast for the next 48 hours is squalls heavy rain windy gusts up to 25mph. Nothing big but at least a practice run for later on this summer

[tolakram]

Saved radar loop

[tallywx]

System is doing an outstanding job maintaining convection offshore even at the typical diurnal peak of inland FL peninsular convection. Not much popping over land today, w/ storms remaining offshore. The envelope is well established.

[SouthFLTropics]

That's a great radar loop Mark and it shows the motion pretty good and also it shows the new convection popping around the center. I'd say it's getting its act together and feeding off of those very warm GS waters.