ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

blp · #221 Postby **blp** » Sun Jun 29, 2014 11:36 pm

SFLcane wrote:Ouch! exposed llc here heading W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif[/img]

Looks SW to me.

#222 Postby **psyclone** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 12:06 am

blp wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Ouch! exposed llc here heading W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif[/img]

Looks SW to me.

Indeed...actually SSW. The system looks to be in terrible shape...basically a naked swirl. I'm not buying the bullish assessments but I'm no pro either...It just looks like early season lameness to me.

Aric Dunn · #223 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 12:09 am

psyclone wrote:
blp wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Ouch! exposed llc here heading W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif[/img]

Looks SW to me.

Indeed...actually SSW. The system looks to be in terrible shape...basically a naked swirl. I'm not buying the bullish assessments but I'm no pro either...It just looks like early season lameness to me.

Read multiple previous posts

#224 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 12:38 am

Finally the Canadian indicates development, though not until Wednesday.

Probably wont see a TD today. Maybe not even tomorrow, but likely on Wed or Thursday

HurricaneTracker2031 · #225 Postby **HurricaneTracker2031** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 12:43 am

It appears to that 91L is weakening. I dont know if DMAX will help it tomorrow but we will see. If development was to occur, it would be by Wednesday or later.

Analysis for 91L and other areas in Pacific: http://goo.gl/t3wjKU

Aric Dunn · #226 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:22 am

Read prevous posts.. this has been anticipated

Aric Dunn · #227 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:29 am

Alyono wrote:Finally the Canadian indicates development, though not until Wednesday.

Probably wont see a TD today. Maybe not even tomorrow, but likely on Wed or Thursday

Not to be rude. But cyclogenisis is not a models best trait ..nor is it wise to even try to use one on a day to day basis ( mostly hour to hour..) we have all see them develop despite all our models.

#228 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:35 am

What are the odds that the it degenerates before Wednesday?

supercane4867 · #229 Postby **supercane4867** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 2:17 am

91L is definitely struggling with convection but circulation still holds

TXNT23 KNES 300008
TCSNTL
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91L)
B. 29/2345Z
C. 29.7N
D. 77.5W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T1.0/1.5/W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...91L IS STRUGGLING. WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION THERE IS IS
ABOUT 1 DEGREE S OF WELL DEFINED..SYMMETRIC LLCC. SHEAR MATRIX USED FOR
WITH CIRCULAR DEFINED CLOUD LINES..CONVECTION LESS THAN 75NM FROM CENTER
AND VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION FOR DT=1.0. MET=1.0 BASED ON 6 HOUR
WEAKENING TREND. PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL

...RUMINSKI

hurricaneCW · #230 Postby **hurricaneCW** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:05 am

It's got a well defined LLC which is huge. We often see strong convective systems that can't get it together because they aren't able to develop a LLC. This one just needs some time to develop , don't underestimate these kinds of storms even if they look like nothing now.

#231 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:43 am

91L resumed a more southwesterly heading over the past few hours and picked up some speed as well. What people who are dismissing the Euro is that so far is doing everything that it has been forecasting which is to remain weak until Tuesday when it starts gaining strength over the loop current and gain even more strength as it starts heading into the Carolinas. The Euro has been very consistent in track and strength for at least 3 runs in a row, so why dismissed it?

#232 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:04 am

I take back about a heading, now that I look closer the heading that 91L has taken is more SSW if not due south, I place it near 28.8N and 78.2W, just east of Bouy 41010 which is reporting north winds and a pressure of 1012 mb, pressure of 91L is lower than what it was estimated at 06z.

#233 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:17 am

its rotating around the broad center

TheStormExpert · #234 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:23 am

Some convection is starting to fire just east and south of the center/llc. It's still moving almost due south (maybe ssw) and is almost due east of Cape Canaveral, FL by the looks of it.

#235 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:40 am

Alyono wrote:its rotating around the broad center

The NHC has not been tracking a broad center which I do not see, they have been plotting the naked LLC.

#236 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:52 am

Saved radar loop, image centered where I estimate the LLC to be, east of Cape Canaveral.

#237 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 5:02 am

there still is a broad center. The well defined LLC is merely rotating around it. Normal for developing systems

Shear remains quite strong, but should decrease tomorrow

#238 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 5:21 am

Alyono wrote:there still is a broad center. The well defined LLC is merely rotating around it. Normal for developing systems

Shear remains quite strong, but should decrease tomorrow

I still don't agree about a broad center but I agree about the shear, doubt that it will get much if any deep convection close to the LLC today to send out the recon this afternoon, better chances late tomorrow. IMO.

#239 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 6:07 am

It looks like the intensity down the road will depend if it spends time in the spine of Florida or it stays in the warm gulfstream waters.

#240 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 6:16 am

First visible pix, naked LLC very well defined.

ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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