ozonepete wrote:From what I can see on the visible satellite the LLC that we've all been following appears to be stretching out east to west and dissipating. Looks like a new LLC is forming further south under the convection. This makes sense since the shear is much lower only a little further south. You can see that on the visible or RGB satellite images. Obviously the further south the MLC (and its developing LLC) goes the faster it will develop. Its only other obstacle is the mid-level dry air and that is all pretty far north of it, so even that is becoming less of an issue. Surely that's why most of the models, and in turn the NHC, expect this to become a TS eventually. Since it's still dropping southward slowly and you can see a pretty considerable blow-up of convection over the center right now (with DMAX still coming) it looks pretty sure to be a TD by tomorrow. I'm guessing the models don't develop it very quickly because they expect it to remain weak for a few days and thus it would get carried by low level winds over Florida and then slowly up northward just inside the coast. But oh what a difference a hundred miles makes! Since it hasn't drifted SW at all so far today, and if it doesn't before it stalls tomorrow, it could deepen pretty quickly and the steering winds will let it drift and then take it more northward. In that case, as often happens with these June southeast coast systems, the models will be late to catch that it won't move over land.
I agree. Though it needs time to mix out all the dry air it has entrained. its taking all the circ to draw in enough moist air to develop that little convection that periodically develops around the center.. another 24 hr it should look a lot different and well on its way to TS. It definitely can blow a blow quite rapidly.. the gulf stream area is notorious for that. and the sooner it can become vertically developed the better chance it has to come into florida/ the carolina.. if it meanders longer then develop the steering will have changed and a sharp north to ne motion would likely happen.
Instability may in fact be a problem after all. With it recently going below normal again. 
It's still too much in the formative stages to figure out where the LLC will gel but I'll go with whatever expert formation man Aric says lol.
