ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ozonepete]

The last few 1/2 VIS showed the LLC moving west or slightly north so we'll see - this comes at a delicate time for me because I may need to go into the hospital in the next day or two - please say a prayer for me - thanks.

I may disagree sometimes with folks here but we all love weather and that's a good thing we all have in common, and if I disagree its only because I'm defending the meteorologists I worked for many years ago, some who were pioneers in tropical meteorology...

Again, thanks for your prayers - I need them, especially at this time...

Frank

Just saw this. Frank we've disagreed at times but that's been the fun of it. My sincere wishes everything goes ok. Keep us informed when you can.

[floridasun78]

The last few 1/2 VIS showed the LLC moving west or slightly north so we'll see - this comes at a delicate time for me because I may need to go into the hospital in the next day or two - please say a prayer for me - thanks.

I may disagree sometimes with folks here but we all love weather and that's a good thing we all have in common, and if I disagree its only because I'm defending the meteorologists I worked for many years ago, some who were pioneers in tropical meteorology...

Again, thanks for your prayers - I need them, especially at this time...

Frank

get better we see in here soon

['CaneFreak]

If you go back through the thread, one of the other Mets on here checked the CMAN observations and it showed little or no support for the placement of the front at the time it was analyzed to be there by HPC.

Yes! Me too. That was confusing me. I knew it didn't look right but I wanted someone else who had looked at the obs more closely to confirm. Very rare for them to make such a big error.

I'm just glad they finally corrected the earlier image from this morning that it was attached to a cold front lol.

[img][/img]

I don't think it was an error at all. I have not looked at obs in that much detail, but there is a front there, and it was attached when it developed a day or two ago. Up until last night, the local NWS analyses had the front attached.

[ozonepete]

From what I can see on the visible satellite the LLC that we've all been following appears to be stretching out east to west and dissipating. Looks like a new LLC is forming further south under the convection. This makes sense since the shear is much lower only a little further south. You can see that on the visible or RGB satellite images. Obviously the further south the MLC (and its developing LLC) goes the faster it will develop. Its only other obstacle is the mid-level dry air and that is all pretty far north of it, so even that is becoming less of an issue. Surely that's why most of the models, and in turn the NHC, expect this to become a TS eventually. Since it's still dropping southward slowly and you can see a pretty considerable blow-up of convection over the center right now (with DMAX still coming) it looks pretty sure to be a TD by tomorrow. I'm guessing the models don't develop it very quickly because they expect it to remain weak for a few days and thus it would get carried by low level winds over Florida and then slowly up northward just inside the coast. But oh what a difference a hundred miles makes! Since it hasn't drifted SW at all so far today, and if it doesn't before it stalls tomorrow, it could deepen pretty quickly and the steering winds will let it drift and then take it more northward. In that case, as often happens with these June southeast coast systems, the models will be late to catch that it won't move over land.

[OuterBanker]

Just got back from working and renovating a rental home here on the obx. This morning I told my wife that it appeared that the possible tropical storm onJuly 4 was probably not going to happen. I thought it was headed toward dissapation and no longer a threat. As of very early this am not even JB had mentioned it. I just got online and checked the models and JB's twitter postings. Looks like I wrote it off a bit early.

I hate crow!

[ozonepete]

If you go back through the thread, one of the other Mets on here checked the CMAN observations and it showed little or no support for the placement of the front at the time it was analyzed to be there by HPC.

Hi CaneFreak.

I followed that whole discussion but it's moot now, right? This is completely tropical now.

[ozonepete]

Just got back from working and renovating a rental home here on the obx. This morning I told my wife that it appeared that the possible tropical storm onJuly 4 was probably not going to happen. I thought it was headed toward dissapation and no longer a threat. As of very early this am not even JB had mentioned it. I just got online and checked the models and JB's twitter postings. Looks like I wrote it off a bit early.

I hate crow!

Hi OB!
Make it a big plate! IMHO you are the most likely to get this.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 91, 2014063000, , BEST, 0, 296N, 776W, 25, 1014, LO

['CaneFreak]

Of course . Just wondering when it will get rid of the low and mid level dry air. Any thoughts on that? Thanks in advance.

If you go back through the thread, one of the other Mets on here checked the CMAN observations and it showed little or no support for the placement of the front at the time it was analyzed to be there by HPC.

Hi CaneFreak.

I followed that whole discussion but it's moot now, right? This is completely tropical now.

[CrazyC83]

It is definitely fully tropical, but too little convection/spin for a TD right now.

[ozonepete]

Of course . Just wondering when it will get rid of the low and mid level dry air. Any thoughts on that? Thanks in advance.

If you go back through the thread, one of the other Mets on here checked the CMAN observations and it showed little or no support for the placement of the front at the time it was analyzed to be there by HPC.

Hi CaneFreak.

I followed that whole discussion but it's moot now, right? This is completely tropical now.

RUC and other models including GFS have the 700mb and 500mb dry air almost gone by 18Z tomorrow so that should not be an issue really soon. That's why I think it will intensify more rapidly than currently forecast IF it stays at least as far offshore as it is now. Really, if that mid-level moisture forecast holds, this should be able to get to TS easily by tomorrow night or Tuesday at the latest.

[northjaxpro]

From what I can see on the visible satellite the LLC that we've all been following appears to be stretching out east to west and dissipating. Looks like a new LLC is forming further south under the convection. This makes sense since the shear is much lower only a little further south. You can see that on the visible or RGB satellite images. Obviously the further south the MLC (and its developing LLC) goes the faster it will develop. Its only other obstacle is the mid-level dry air and that is all pretty far north of it, so even that is becoming less of an issue. Surely that's why most of the models, and in turn the NHC, expect this to become a TS eventually. Since it's still dropping southward slowly and you can see a pretty considerable blow-up of convection over the center right now (with DMAX still coming) it looks pretty sure to be a TD by tomorrow. I'm guessing the models don't develop it very quickly because they expect it to remain weak for a few days and thus it would get carried by low level winds over Florida and then slowly up northward just inside the coast. But oh what a difference a hundred miles makes! Since it hasn't drifted SW at all so far today, and if it doesn't before it stalls tomorrow, it could deepen pretty quickly and the steering winds will let it drift and then take it more northward. In that case, as often happens with these June southeast coast systems, the models will be late to catch that it won't move over land.

Hey ozonepete! I think this is pretty much a spot on analysis.

[ozonepete]

It is definitely fully tropical, but too little convection/spin for a TD right now.

Hi Craze! But see the hot towers popping now?

[ozonepete]

From what I can see on the visible satellite the LLC that we've all been following appears to be stretching out east to west and dissipating. Looks like a new LLC is forming further south under the convection. This makes sense since the shear is much lower only a little further south. You can see that on the visible or RGB satellite images. Obviously the further south the MLC (and its developing LLC) goes the faster it will develop. Its only other obstacle is the mid-level dry air and that is all pretty far north of it, so even that is becoming less of an issue. Surely that's why most of the models, and in turn the NHC, expect this to become a TS eventually. Since it's still dropping southward slowly and you can see a pretty considerable blow-up of convection over the center right now (with DMAX still coming) it looks pretty sure to be a TD by tomorrow. I'm guessing the models don't develop it very quickly because they expect it to remain weak for a few days and thus it would get carried by low level winds over Florida and then slowly up northward just inside the coast. But oh what a difference a hundred miles makes! Since it hasn't drifted SW at all so far today, and if it doesn't before it stalls tomorrow, it could deepen pretty quickly and the steering winds will let it drift and then take it more northward. In that case, as often happens with these June southeast coast systems, the models will be late to catch that it won't move over land.

Hey ozonepete! I think this is pretty much a spot on analysis.

Hi Jax! thanks. And one other thing: it has pretty good symmetry (don't wanna say great yet) and we know symmetry is really important. If there's no jagged interruptions to the flow inward towards the center there's no obstruction to all of that high theta-e air to spiral inward and upward.

[Frank2]

Thanks to all for their kind comments and prayers - I appreciate them more than I can type, and to ozonepete for his professional anaylsis. As you wrote, the weak LLC has dissipated and a new one has formed to the south, and 100 miles can make a difference, for certain, though one of the retired mets I spoke to today mentioned the models still have it meandering before being picked up to the NE, and as you said that's typical for the models trying to pick up on a June system. As others mentioned 91L seemed to develop an ouflow boundary line of thunderstorms that moved through here about 2 hours ago, and at first it caused a wind shift to the west and everything got very smoky for about 30 minutes from the glades fires, but then the rains came and the wind switched back so now we are in the clear again...

[CrazyC83]

It is definitely fully tropical, but too little convection/spin for a TD right now.

Hi Craze! But see the hot towers popping now?

Yeah so maybe it will make a run at it!

I've been soooooo busy lately...studying towards pro met!

[cycloneye]

studying towards pro met!

Keep it going my friend.

[ozonepete]

studying towards pro met!

Keep it going my friend.

Ooh yeah I echo Luis. I'm very proud of you.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Just got back from working and renovating a rental home here on the obx. This morning I told my wife that it appeared that the possible tropical storm onJuly 4 was probably not going to happen. I thought it was headed toward dissapation and no longer a threat. As of very early this am not even JB had mentioned it. I just got online and checked the models and JB's twitter postings. Looks like I wrote it off a bit early.

I hate crow!

Batter it up and deep fry it. Tastes like chicken!


You and I need to keep our eyes peeled on this guy OB.

[Nimbus]

There is a single hot tower sheared south of where the LLC was at sunset.
Did the LLC relocate under it?