ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[vacanechaser]

I'd say the reason why recon was shelved was due to really no convection.. It's nearly a naked swirl right now. No need to waste the money and time. It's in no hurry to move really and hasn't developed. Yes the circulation is much better than yesterday. But as of right now, no reason to fly out to a naked swirl. I would expect if it shows signs of more convection tonight and tomorrow it will get a plane in it.


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane intercept research team

[wxman57]

I'd say the reason why recon was shelved was due to really no convection.. It's nearly a naked swirl right now. No need to waste the money and time. It's in no hurry to move really and hasn't developed. Yes the circulation is much better than yesterday. But as of right now, no reason to fly out to a naked swirl. I would expect if it shows signs of more convection tonight and tomorrow it will get a plane in it.

Right, it's fairly clear there's a LLC. Plenty of obs in the area and ASCAT indicates 10-15 kts. Pressure 1015-1016mb. Not organized enough convection-wise to declare a TD. Recon would not have provided any additional info. Waste of money today.

[cycloneye]

Pressures are falling in this bouy but will they continue to fall during the night?

['CaneFreak]

Yeah. That was a fairly easy decision. All it needs is a decent blowup of convection near the center and for it to persist for a reasonable amount of time and then they will declare it a TD. However, with dewpoints in the 50s here in NC today and a ridge over the Northeastern US continuing to pump dry continental air into it, it is likely going to take a couple days for this to occur.

I'd say the reason why recon was shelved was due to really no convection.. It's nearly a naked swirl right now. No need to waste the money and time. It's in no hurry to move really and hasn't developed. Yes the circulation is much better than yesterday. But as of right now, no reason to fly out to a naked swirl. I would expect if it shows signs of more convection tonight and tomorrow it will get a plane in it.


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane intercept research team

[NDG]

I'm just glad they finally corrected the earlier image from this morning that it was attached to a cold front lol.

['CaneFreak]

Yes! Me too. That was confusing me. I knew it didn't look right but I wanted someone else who had looked at the obs more closely to confirm. Very rare for them to make such a big error.

I'm just glad they finally corrected the earlier image from this morning that it was attached to a cold front lol.

[SeGaBob]

Does anyone think NHC will raise development chances at 8pm? Personally I would guess they maintain 60/80.

[Annie Oakley]

South Florida getting it?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[cycloneye]

Does anyone think NHC will raise development chances at 8pm? Personally I would guess they maintain 60/80.

Stay the same.

['CaneFreak]

That's associated with the sea breeze.

South Florida getting it?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Annie Oakley]

That's associated with the sea breeze.

South Florida getting it?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Lol-that's an understatement to this Texan..........hope ya'll get all the rain you need and no more than that.

['CaneFreak]

Yeah, the sea breeze convection is more impressive than 91L this evening.

That's associated with the sea breeze.

South Florida getting it?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Lol-that's an understatement to this Texan..........hope ya'll get all the rain you need and no more than that.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 230 miles east of St. Augustine, Florida, remain
limited. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development during the next few days and a tropical
depression is likely to form by mid-week while the system moves
slowly southward to southwestward off the east-central coast of
Florida. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance on Monday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[SFLcane]

This thing is expected to keep shooting SW by the time its done it might be near SFL latitude.

[JonathanBelles]

Yes! Me too. That was confusing me. I knew it didn't look right but I wanted someone else who had looked at the obs more closely to confirm. Very rare for them to make such a big error.

I'm just glad they finally corrected the earlier image from this morning that it was attached to a cold front lol.

[img][/img]

I don't think it was an error at all. I have not looked at obs in that much detail, but there is a front there, and it was attached when it developed a day or two ago. Up until last night, the local NWS analyses had the front attached.

[Frank2]

The last few 1/2 VIS showed the LLC moving west or slightly north so we'll see - this comes at a delicate time for me because I may need to go into the hospital in the next day or two - please say a prayer for me - thanks.

I may disagree sometimes with folks here but we all love weather and that's a good thing we all have in common, and if I disagree its only because I'm defending the meteorologists I worked for many years ago, some who were pioneers in tropical meteorology...

Again, thanks for your prayers - I need them, especially at this time...

Frank

[Annie Oakley]

Why is it moving south to southwest?

[Annie Oakley]

The last few 1/2 VIS showed the LLC moving west or slightly north so we'll see - this comes at a delicate time for me because I may need to go into the hospital in the next day or two - please say a prayer for me - thanks. I may disagree sometimes with folks here but we all love weather and that's a good thing we all have in common..

Frank

Frank-prayer for you and you will be ok cause we need you here.

[ninel conde]

good luck frank

[floridasun78]

South Florida getting it?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

by miami airport we have good storm