ATL: ARTHUR - Models

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS ensembles:

[AJC3]

06Z GFS ensembles:

Is there some sort of land mass underneath all that mess?

[ninel conde]

looks to me like the euro is the only model that does much with it, and the euro can often falsely deepen storms out of the tropics.

I'm not familiar with that being a trait of the euro.

Anyway, if you follow the GFS 6Z vorticity it takes this over Florida, which is why it never does much with development. Near the end of the run it deepens the vorticity as it takes the area right up the coast.

The Canadian keeps it off shore but never does much with it.

It had Irene at 918 mb right over me. luckily, it was wrong.

[ninel conde]

06Z GFS ensembles:

Is there some sort of land mass underneath all that mess?

all closely together.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah the models are all closely clustered together, and it is apparently looking more likely that whatever comes about of 91L will at the very least brush along or hug the Florida East Coast in the next couple of days. After that, the trough moving across the Ohio Valley by mid week picks 91L/future Arthur close to or just off the Eastern US seaboard.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS similar to the 06Z GFS. Brings a weak low into the Treasure Coast of Florida then it recurves it over the FL peninsula / SE U.S.

[supercane4867]

As I remember the euro didn't deepen any storm last year which were all weak while GFS falsely bombed out several systems

[ronjon]

The GFS ensembles shifted west over the FL peninsula at 06z. The 12z HWRF is now near the west coast of FL. Could be a windshield wiper effect so we'll see if this is a trend or not. Anxiously awaiting 12z Euro.

[tropicwatch]

Wouldn't be surprised if it makes it to the GOM before re-curving.

[gatorcane]

12Z HWRF has shifted south and a bit quicker in bringing 91L into Florida. Here we are at 39 hours with low south of Lake Okeechobee:

[Alyono]

EC has a significant high bias for TCs in the mid latitudes

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical models.


CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1812 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912014) 20140629 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140629 1800 140630 0600 140630 1800 140701 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.6N 77.3W 29.3N 77.5W 29.2N 77.9W 29.6N 78.3W
BAMD 29.6N 77.3W 29.2N 77.7W 29.0N 78.1W 29.0N 78.7W
BAMM 29.6N 77.3W 29.3N 77.6W 29.2N 78.0W 29.4N 78.4W
LBAR 29.6N 77.3W 28.8N 77.5W 28.5N 77.9W 28.4N 78.5W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140701 1800 140702 1800 140703 1800 140704 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.3N 78.6W 32.1N 78.8W 34.8N 77.8W 38.2N 73.9W
BAMD 29.2N 79.3W 30.4N 80.4W 32.5N 79.8W 35.8N 75.6W
BAMM 29.9N 78.8W 31.2N 79.6W 33.6N 79.2W 36.9N 75.1W
LBAR 28.5N 79.1W 29.8N 79.6W 31.5N 79.1W 34.8N 76.2W
SHIP 45KTS 52KTS 60KTS 61KTS
DSHP 45KTS 52KTS 49KTS 36KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.6N LONCUR = 77.3W DIRCUR = 215DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 30.5N LONM12 = 77.4W DIRM12 = 158DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 32.0N LONM24 = 78.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1015MB OUTPRS = 1019MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

[ninel conde]

EC has a significant high bias for TCs in the mid latitudes

yep. i think we will need to see the GFS jump onboard to see a strong system.

[AdamFirst]

Has the Euro started rolling yet?

[ninel conde]

JB has updated

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 15m

ECMWF further west with TC.. very close to Hatteras 4th of July night. looks like at least minimal hurricane on global model

[floridasun78]

12Z HWRF has shifted south and a bit quicker in bringing 91L into Florida. Here we are at 39 hours with low south of Lake Okeechobee:

what site you get HWRF from?

[supercane4867]

12z ECMWF has Arthur brush the Carolina coast as a strong TS to minimal hurricane

[TheStormExpert]

JB has updated

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 15m

ECMWF further west with TC.. very close to Hatteras 4th of July night. looks like at least minimal hurricane on global model

And just the other day he was basically calling for a close to totally dead season? Make up your mind JB! lol