#11 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 26, 2014 7:42 am
Remains LOW...
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0N
129.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 125.7E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION THAT IS ABOUT TO
MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN LUZON. THE CONVECTION IS SHEARED
WESTWARD, PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
(15 TO 25 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS
IS OFFSET BY A STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION
TO THE DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BASED ON A 260130Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacifichttps://www.weather.gov/gum/