EPAC: Invest 95E
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- Steve820
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It looks like time is up for this invest. Oh well, it had its chance. Hopefully we'll see Douglas before the end of June.
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Hurricanes are an amazing natural phenomena. While many are spiraling pits of evil that kill people or cause devastation, some are tame and stay clear of land.
I wish for you to
I wish for you to
- Yellow Evan
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Up to 30% (strange).
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 22 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Satellite wind data indicate that a low pressure system located
about 350 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja
California, Mexico is gradually becoming better defined. Although
thunderstorm activity has been increasing near the center during the
past few hours, environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive for additional development to occur during the next day or
so while the disturbance moves northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 22 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Satellite wind data indicate that a low pressure system located
about 350 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja
California, Mexico is gradually becoming better defined. Although
thunderstorm activity has been increasing near the center during the
past few hours, environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive for additional development to occur during the next day or
so while the disturbance moves northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart
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- Yellow Evan
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- Hurricane_Luis
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Re: EPAC: Invest 95E
stormcruisin wrote:http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/841/8k7i.png
Sat-pic looks a TD imo
http://imageshack.com/a/img843/8060/fabq.gif
Ascat suggesting 35 knots at core.
That Satellite image is from the 20th June. Here is a newer one.
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- Yellow Evan
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For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast
of the southern tip of the Baja California penisula.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for development
of this system during the next day or so, but are expected to become
less favorable thereafter while the system slows down and turns
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast
of the southern tip of the Baja California penisula.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for development
of this system during the next day or so, but are expected to become
less favorable thereafter while the system slows down and turns
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
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Re: EPAC: Invest 95E
Clearly 95E looks better on infared satellite than what it actually is at the surface with the weak & broad surface low well removed from the mid level circulation, IMO.
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Does anyone think this will turn out to be a bust? I personally do, again because of limited time and conditions which are not all that good. But as of now, it doesn't look that bad, more like an organized blob.
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
- Yellow Evan
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Re:
hurricanes1234 wrote:Does anyone think this will turn out to be a bust? I personally do, again because of limited time and conditions which are not all that good. But as of now, it doesn't look that bad, more like an organized blob.
It's over warm SST's and isn't that far off from being classified IMO
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- Yellow Evan
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1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for development
of this system during the next day or so, but are expected to become
less favorable thereafter while the system slows down and turns
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for development
of this system during the next day or so, but are expected to become
less favorable thereafter while the system slows down and turns
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
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- Category 5
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Down to 20% and looks quite bad right now with little notable convection. I think it's really time for this to bust now.
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
- xtyphooncyclonex
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IMO I think, together with the others, this is a bust. There is just too much dry air and the disturbance is disorganized. Looks fair on visible imagery, but decapitated on microwave and on infrared.
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- Yellow Evan
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