EPAC: CRISTINA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Looks a little more symmetrical now. Maybe nearing its peak.

Hard to tell what's going on since it's been a while since we've gotten a decent microwave pass.

[Kingarabian]

ADT Numbers continue going up

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 955.9mb/107.2kt

[Ntxw]

Just my personal opinion, I think she's going to give a good run for major.

[supercane4867]

Here is the latest AMSU pass, low resolution but a compact eyewall is quite obvious

[Yellow Evan]

Just my personal opinion, I think she's going to give a good run for major.

It won't shock if it is one at 9z.

[euro6208]

Good looking 75 knot hurricane!

Lately our storms have trouble developing over here but nice to see that storms in this area is intensifying

[Kingarabian]

Most definitely is still intensifying.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[supercane4867]

MAJOR HURRICANE

EP, 03, 2014061206, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1061W, 100, 963, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 40, 60, 1009, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, CRISTINA, D,

[Kingarabian]

MAJOR HURRICANE

EP, 03, 2014061206, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1061W, 100, 963, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 40, 60, 1009, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, CRISTINA, D,

I'M SO SHOCKED!!!

(said no one ever )

[Kingarabian]

TAFB/SAB:

12/0600 UTC 16.2N 106.1W T5.5/5.5 CRISTINA -- East Pacific

ADT:

Code: Select all

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

 
Current Intensity Analysis
 



                     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.2.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  12 JUN 2014    Time :   054500 UTC
      Lat :   16:05:16 N     Lon :  106:15:18 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.7 / 955.8mb/107.2kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                5.7     5.8     6.1

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

 Center Temp :  +4.6C    Cloud Region Temp : -67.2C

 Scene Type : EYE 

 Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC 

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :   55km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1011mb

 Satellite Name :  GOES13
 Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.3 degrees

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Tally of the EPac is at 3/2/2. Is this a record earliest?

Cristina brought us surprises. HWRF did a very good job, forecasting a major hurricane in the early runs. But they always forecasted at least a hurricane. This is the second most impressive in the North Hemisphere this year, only behind Amanda, and the second most impressive in the North Hemisphere since Haiyan dissipated.

[euro6208]

20140612 0600 16.2 106.1 T5.5/5.5 03E CRISTINA

Major Hurricane Cristina now a major hurricane at 100 knots...

5.5= 102 knots

[euro6208]

OT but found something somewhat interesting...

Nanauk in Indian Ocean at 55 knots, Invest 94 and 95W in WPAC at 30 and 15 knots equals 100 knots which is cristina

[hurricaneCW]

I can't say I'm surprised this is going toward major status and it's quite possible that numerous storms in this basin will continue to exceed expectations. I do believe they will see a category 5 this season, maybe even more than one.

[supercane4867]

105kt

...CRISTINA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...

2:00 AM PDT Thu Jun 12
Location: 16.2°N 106.5°W
Moving: WNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 960 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph

[supercane4867]

HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
200 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014

Satellite images indicate that Cristina has rapidly intensified
during the past several hours. Convection around the center has
become more intense and symmetric, with the eye also becoming better
defined and warmer. Dvorak estimates range from 102-112 kt, and 105
kt is chosen as the initial wind speed. Cirrus clouds approaching
the storm from the southwest suggest an increase in shear is coming
sooner rather than later, so only a small intensification is
predicted today. A weakening trend should begin on Friday due to
increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters, with Cristina
likely transitioning into a remnant low over the cool eastern
Pacific waters by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than
the previous one in the short term to account for the initial
intensity, but is otherwise unchanged beyond 36 hours.

Cristina is moving at 295/7 around the southern periphery of a
mid-level high over Mexico. A west-northwestward to northwestward
motion is forecast during the next few days while the hurricane
remains steered by the high. Cristina should turn toward the west
and decelerate over the weekend when the weakening cyclone becomes
more steered by the low-level flow. Although there is still some
model disagreement at long range, the model consensus is almost
unchanged from the previous one, and the new NHC forecast is
basically an update of the last prediction.

Cristina is the earliest second major hurricane formation in the
eastern Pacific since reliable records began in 1971, eclipsing the
former record of Darby (2010) by 13 days.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 16.2N 106.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 17.5N 108.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 18.3N 110.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 19.0N 111.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 19.7N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 20.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 20.0N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

[stormcruisin]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUN 2014 Time : 091500 UTC
Lat : 16:09:37 N Lon : 106:34:58 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 949.3mb/115.0kt

[hurricanes1234]

Amazing! EPAC has been rather impressive thus far. I would say this is a Category 4 based on satellite appearance only. Just wow.

Not official.

[Kingarabian]

Category 4 is child's play for Cristina. Look at the ring of even deeper convection forming around the eye. Making a run at cat.5.






ADT raw numbers now at:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 945.1mb/119.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.6 6.6

[Kingarabian]