ATL: INVEST 90L --- Models
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- cycloneye
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ATL: INVEST 90L --- Models
Post all model runs here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L --- Models
SHIPS does not do much with it because it sends it onshore in 36 hrs, must be going by the worthless BAM models.
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL902014 06/04/14 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 21 19 19 17 18 18 21 26 29
V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 21 19 20 24 26 26 27 27 27
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 18 18 24 26 26 27 27 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 20 21 28 25 23 23 24 25 21 17 11 7 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 3 5 6 10
SHEAR DIR 248 245 250 268 276 285 303 294 306 301 314 280 307
SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.8 28.4 28.8 29.3 29.8 30.0
POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 122 121 121 121 125 132 141 147 155 164 168
ADJ. POT. INT. 108 109 108 107 107 108 112 119 127 133 141 150 155
200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.1 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9
TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 10 8 8 10 9 12 10 14 11 13 10
700-500 MB RH 80 79 78 76 74 71 69 63 60 54 52 51 49
GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6
850 MB ENV VOR 19 14 15 3 4 16 33 39 42 42 54 48 29
200 MB DIV 39 36 37 28 10 24 10 -5 0 -10 -5 -19 -16
700-850 TADV 2 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 0 2
LAND (KM) 61 76 101 108 104 52 -37 -149 -255 -275 -233 -132 -21
LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.7 19.8 20.0 20.0 20.1 20.1 20.2 20.1 19.9 19.5
LONG(DEG W) 94.4 94.6 94.7 95.0 95.3 96.0 97.0 98.3 99.5 100.8 102.1 103.4 104.8
STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 3 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 7
HEAT CONTENT 7 6 8 7 8 10 11 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L --- Models
Good model plot on Levi Cowen's page:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/90L_tracks_latest.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/90L_tracks_latest.png
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L --- Models
According the latest model guidance it looks like the EURO was right on Invest 90L. Just an opinion not a forecast.
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- CFLHurricane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L --- Models
Boo! Don't go to Mexico, come to Florida instead.
We have theme parks
We have theme parks
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I'm not a meteorologist, but I did stay at a motel 8.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L --- Models
Any and all model runs this far out are worthless. Without anything even remotely organized at the moment, there's nothing for the models to latch onto and extrapolate from.
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Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L --- Models
12z GFS has a weak low for a few days in BOC then moves NE as a sheared system sending plenty of rain to South Florida.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L --- Models
cycloneye wrote:12z GFS has a weak low for a few days in BOC then moves NE as a sheared system sending plenty of rain to South Florida.
http://oi62.tinypic.com/29vi9u9.jpg
It's been showing that solution for almost a few days now.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L --- Models
I hope the GFS is correct. Florida needs the rain to end the drought. Just an opinion not a forecast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L --- Models
adam0983 wrote:I hope the GFS is correct. Florida needs the rain to end the drought. Just an opinion not a forecast.
What drought? Most of the state has had well-above average rainfall lately (ask Pensacola, for instance), and only a small portion of South Florida is "abnormally dry" according to drought-monitoring sites.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L --- Models
HurricaneBelle wrote:adam0983 wrote:I hope the GFS is correct. Florida needs the rain to end the drought. Just an opinion not a forecast.
What drought? Most of the state has had well-above average rainfall lately (ask Pensacola, for instance), and only a small portion of South Florida is "abnormally dry" according to drought-monitoring sites.
SE FL is where it has been an abnormally dry start to the rainy season!
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
- cycloneye
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ATL: INVEST 90L --- 20% / 20%
Marine discussion.
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
212 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
..GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF-GFS BLEND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
A TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE W GULF WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG
WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH...WITH
LOCALLY STRONG...WINDS OVER THE SW GULF WATERS. ELSEWHERE GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE OVER THE
SW GULF AND 2-4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. THERE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SW GULF WATERS. THOUGH MODELS ARE IN MORE
AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW MEANDERING OVER THE SW GULF THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK THEN DISSIPATING THIS WEEKEND...THE LARGEST
DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
BE THE STRONGEST WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW. THE LATEST UKMET RUNS
ARE STARTING TO SHOW A STRONGER LOW THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
ECMWF IS KEEPING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOW OVER THE SW GULF. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW GULF WITH FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW
THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
212 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014
..GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF-GFS BLEND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
A TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE W GULF WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG
WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH...WITH
LOCALLY STRONG...WINDS OVER THE SW GULF WATERS. ELSEWHERE GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE OVER THE
SW GULF AND 2-4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. THERE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SW GULF WATERS. THOUGH MODELS ARE IN MORE
AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW MEANDERING OVER THE SW GULF THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK THEN DISSIPATING THIS WEEKEND...THE LARGEST
DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
BE THE STRONGEST WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW. THE LATEST UKMET RUNS
ARE STARTING TO SHOW A STRONGER LOW THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
ECMWF IS KEEPING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOW OVER THE SW GULF. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW GULF WITH FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW
THROUGH FRIDAY.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L --- Models
Agreed! Also, take a look at my "Lake-O" thread. We're about to be put on water restrictions!
viewtopic.php?f=24&t=102720&p=2383674#p2383674
viewtopic.php?f=24&t=102720&p=2383674#p2383674
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Something's wrong when you regret, things that haven't happened yet!
- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L --- Models
Big change on track by 12z ECMWF. Now it has weak low just off Louisiana coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L --- Models
12z Euro in La and 12z GFS into S FL - just love the model agreement, lol! Hmmm...think its getting closer though.
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- SouthDadeFish
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L --- Models
ronjon wrote:12z Euro in La and 12z GFS into S FL - just love the model agreement, lol! Hmmm...think its getting closer though.
I think you may be forgetting the time frame of these "landfalls." One should not expect anything too close 180+ hours out. The models will have a difficult time with this disturbance to its proximity with land, interactions with Boris, and the large nature of the disturbance.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L --- Models
SouthDadeFish wrote:ronjon wrote:12z Euro in La and 12z GFS into S FL - just love the model agreement, lol! Hmmm...think its getting closer though.
I think you may be forgetting the time frame of these "landfalls." One should not expect anything too close 180+ hours out. The models will have a difficult time with this disturbance to its proximity with land, interactions with Boris, and the large nature of the disturbance.
yeah I understand SDF - was having a little fun. Latest 12z NOGAPs shows low pressure forming in the SW GOm and moving toward La at 180 hrs.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=nvg_troplant&prod=sfc10m&dtg=2014060412&set=Tropical
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L --- Models
For entertainment purposes here is the higher resolution Euro at 240hr. I think the take away is that things appear to be shifting east a little today.
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