Development in SW GOM? (Is Invest 90L)

[cycloneye]

If HPC is right,things will be very slow as it has low pressure hanging at BOC for a few days.

[Dean4Storms]

18z GFS with an elongated then eventually split low over Florida into the Gulf by next Monday, winds 40-50mph over the southern Half of the Peninsula.


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=189&image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_atlantic_189_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=atlantic&param=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140601+18+UTC&imageSize=&ps=area

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A stationary trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing widespread cloudiness and showers.
Environmental conditions are not currently conducive for
development, but may become slightly more favorable later this week
as this system moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[ronjon]

Euro and GFS split on the eventual evolution of the low. We wait....

[Evil Jeremy]

Euro and GFS split on the eventual evolution of the low. We wait....

ECMWF and GFS are disagreeing? Must be hurricane season then...

The CIMSS charts suggest that vorticity has been lessening throughout the day (http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... 8&prod=vor), but the satellite images to me look like the system has been maintaining vorticity, particularly around 23N 92W.

[AdamFirst]

NWS Miami Discussion

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-MONDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ESPECIALLY
CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AROUND MID-WEEK AND THEN LIFTING IT TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE
GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND WHILE IT HAS BACKED OFF FROM
EARLIER RUNS STILL SHOWS A MUCH FASTER EVOLUTION AND HAS THE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY THE NEXT
WEEKEND. STILL, BOTH MODELS KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA IN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
TREND OF SCATTERED POPS INTO UPCOMING WEEKEND.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Area has more convection than yesterday. However, its still disorganized.

My thoughts on the situation:

http://goo.gl/gQo4bq <FIXED LINK

[SeGaBob]

So is this the upper level low that was over the midwest for several days?

Also saw this in our local area discussion that was issued at 9:52 pm...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD...ADDING SOME UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST DETAILS THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND COULD BE DRIVEN BY EITHER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DISTURBANCE
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR A POSSIBLE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE
BY SATURDAY. THE GULF LOW SCENARIO IS AGGRESSIVELY DEPICTED IN THE
00Z/01 GFS...WHILE THE 00Z/01 ECMWF SOLUTION SUGGESTS A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE. HAVE INDICATED
JUST TYPICAL ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...THEN
CONSERVATIVELY TREND INTO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY TO INDICATE A POTENTIALLY MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. WILL
STILL CAP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE PATTERN EVOLUTION.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...REACHING THE LOWER 90S
INLAND...BEFORE CONDITIONS COULD TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER INTO THE
WEEKEND IF THERE IS MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN POTENTIAL.

[Frank2]

Lots of shear down there right now...

[weatherwindow]

Good morning, all...00Z/02 GFS is now developing an identifiable 1005 BOC low at 66hrs and weakening the EPAC system as vorticity is advected northward into the BOC development
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

Greeting from KW..Rich

[Frank2]

Thanks for that graphic - 24 hours ago Jim Cantore was mentioning the low but by the 12Z GFS run it had turned into a trough, so that 204 hour map shown in the 00Z run is 8 days out and subject to change, we hope...

[Hurricaneman]

and it also seems that the 0zGFS is also more robust with a 998 low near the NE tip of the Yucatan at 204 and if you look at the shear parameters at that time there is a good chance at some strengthening beyond that as it heads to Florida but as always the thing to look at is anything within 3 days and it has a system in the BOC in less than 3 days

Seems to send a moderate tropical storm to Tampa at 240 but as always this may change so it may not develop or it may develop and make landfall anywhere from Key West to Veracruz and anywhere in between

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Frank2]

It'll be interesting to see the 12Z run for any consistencies - last season the GFS wasn't very reliable...

[Hurricane Alexis]

18z FIM develops it in about 170 hours in the NW caribeean then movies it into Tampa. It seems likes it's out out to lunch.

[chaser1]

18z FIM develops it in about 170 hours in the NW caribeean then movies it into Tampa. It seems likes it's out out to lunch.

http://i1375.photobucket.com/albums/ag455/Alexis_Menendez/wind_10m_f228_zps62b8b501.png

I saw that too and you wanna know what I think? It's not altogether that unreasonable of a solution. Mind you, I'm still having a hard time buying into that Pacific system to the south developing fairly quickly and nearly just as fast, coming across Mexico, moving East and into the W. Caribbean..... and then developing into a decent storm (or hurricane?) and moving north from there. The part I have the most trouble with is that I believe that any low pressure with the least amount of vertical structure making its way into the Bay of Campeche, would likely move to the west under the southern Plains mid level ridge (actually as the NAM seems to indicate).

That said, the only place that I CAN see a tropical system have some chance to develop, would be in the Gulf of Honduras because, just as the FIM would have indicated.... the GFS has been pretty steady on wanting to put a fairly robust upper anticyclone pretty much centered over that point in a number of days from now. So, with regard to where cyclogenesis could reasonably try to occur as the GFS indicates, it would seemingly be too far west to not continue getting continuously sheared while under the west side of that upper high being forecasted to form about 5 degrees to its East. So, other than the GFS deepening the low to 1001mb, I can easily see the upper conditions along with the steering influence of the cutoff low in the NW Gulf taking a wet and sheared mess to the N.E. - up and into South & Central Florida and Bahamas providing a good few inches of rain for some folks during the event.

Now..... if the FIM is somehow right and a COC were to try and get going further east and in the W. Caribbean, THAT could be a bit more eventful. I'm still not sure though how any developing system down there would have the time (a few days or so) to organize and deepen that significantly prior to being pulled up and to the North and N.E. as the FIM takes it.

Well, just to be safe, I'd just assume see that "crazy uncle" model from the North try to come into agreement with the FIM & also want to crank up something big in the W. Caribb. Only THEN will I be able to breath a sigh of relief because there's no way i'm gonna buy into the Canadian model mirroring the FIM & then accurately predict a storm to form. That would just be- "Fimpossible"!

On a more serious note though, it will be interesting to see if the next few GFS runs remain consistent with it's present forecasted development especially if it begins to shift the COC to develop further East (and perhaps a bit south). Should that happen over the next day or two, we might actually see this board start to get pretty busy once again.

[cycloneye]

Down to 10% in 5 days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A stationary trough of low pressure interacting with a large
upper-level low is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized
showers over much of eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico and across
the Yucatan Peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to
remain unfavorable for the development of this system as it moves
little this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[tolakram]

The 6Z GFS run now shows what the Euro showed a couple of days ago. A weak slow pressure area drifting slowly NE through the BOC. In my opinion model support for anything significant is falling fast.

[ronjon]

Actually the 06z GFS now develops a low in the BOC and slowly moves it E-NE to a position off the NE tip of the Yuc. It seems to be trending more toward the FIM. Its backed off its weekend solution but brings the low into the SE GOM by Monday. Ugh..long range models.

[SeGaBob]

Is there anything to indicate unfavorable conditions continuing through 5 days like the NHC is now saying? Also is there still the possibility of 93E helping this system down the road?

[SeGaBob]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next five days.