Development in SW GOM? (Is Invest 90L)

[Dean4Storms]

Already seeing some weak turning in the BOC, add some convection today and it could get interesting. Think the ECM might be out to lunch on this at this point.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[Alyono]

seems as if the GFS solution is closer to reality. The EPAC system is doing next to nothing

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Interesting look but it has a long way to go.

NWS Tampa Bay talks about the possible development in GOM and maybe affecting FL [Issued Today]
EXCERPT

..LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS OFFERING UP A NUMBER OF POSSIBILITIES
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A HYBRID TROPICAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS...WILL FOCUS ON WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WAITING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIODS. OVERALL...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECREASE IN COLUMN
MOISTURE DURING THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME...WITH COLUMN MOISTURE THEN
INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH
DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

seems as if the GFS solution is closer to reality. The EPAC system is doing next to nothing

It sure looks that way...

[Evil Jeremy]

12z GFS closes off a low in the BoC in 69 hours.

Welcome back to the hurricane circus everyone!

[tailgater]

Looling at FEW buoys that are working in the GOM, Water temps look to be marginal.

[jlauderdal]

12z GFS closes off a low in the BoC in 69 hours.

Welcome back to the hurricane circus everyone!

time to start the generator and scare the neighbors

Sent from my XT1058 using Tapatalk

[cycloneye]

12z GFS not too bullish as the 06z run.

[blp]

The big difference from last run is the 12z keeps the EPAC system around longer and robs the BOC low of energy.

[cycloneye]

The big difference from last run is the 12z keeps the EPAC system around longer and robs the BOC low of energy.

Semi offtopic=That is a very good point.What I worrie about that is big floodings/mudslides will occur in CA and Mexico. But we can discuss about that at the 93E thread.

[blp]

The 12z CMC back in the NW Carribean. Let the model ping pong continue.

[northjaxpro]

Already seeing some weak turning in the BOC, add some convection today and it could get interesting. Think the ECM might be out to lunch on this at this point.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

Yeah, I agree with you Dean. I think things will get more interesting the next 24-36 hours if convection builds.

[SeGaBob]

In a way I feel this looks better than 93E... it has less convection than 93 but this looks better on satellite.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated and nearly stationary area of low pressure over the
Bay of Campeche is producing widespread cloudiness and showers over
the central Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are currently
unfavorable for development but could become slightly more conducive
later this week as this system moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
214 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND FAVORED ECMWF MORE IN LATER PART
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE LOW DUE TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
FORECAST GUIDANCE.

A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE OVER THE SW GULF...2-4 FT RANGE IN
THE NW GULF...4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...AND 1-3 FT
OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE WESTERN WATERS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SW GULF WATERS BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...AS WITH THE PREVIOUS
RUNS...THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES BEYOND THAT POINT WITH
RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW...BUT THE
LATEST RUN IS MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS AND HAS
BROUGHT IN MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE GFS HAS ALSO
BACKED OFF THE NNE TRACK OF THE LOW AND MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE
SW GULF WATERS WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET CONTINUE TO TRACK THE LOW
WESTWARD INTO MEXICO. WILL CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAK LOW OVER THE
SW GULF WATERS WITH A COMPROMISE IN STRENGTH BETWEEN THE
DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS.

[cycloneye]

The 17:43 UTC TAFB 72 hour forecast.

[gatorcane]

seems as if the GFS solution is closer to reality. The EPAC system is doing next to nothing

The 12Z ECMWF just out is very close to what the 00Z ECMWF was showing - favoring EPAC system with broad low forming then stalling in the BOC/Yucatan area for many days. I would agree seems the GFS makes more sense at this point looking at the two areas on SAT imagery.

[Hurricaneman]

It looks like some type a vorticity is forming near or over the NW tip of the Yucatan looking at visible images but it also could be an artifact

[Dean4Storms]

It looks like some type a vorticity is forming near or over the NW tip of the Yucatan looking at visible images but it also could be an artifact

Saw that just now, there is some kind of vort there. At what level is hard to say.

[Steve820]

I think we could see a depression or even Arthur out of this, though it's a bit early to tell. Happy hurricane season!