EPAC: AMANDA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Major hurricane!

[CrazyC83]

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 250239
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
800 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014

...AMANDA NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 110.7W
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.7 WEST. AMANDA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST ON SUNDAY...AND A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AMANDA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING FORECAST TO BEGIN ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[CrazyC83]

In 2013, it took until late October to get a major in the Western Hemisphere. In 2014, we get it in late May.

[stormkite]

Well, Microwave imagery continues to improve:

[img][/quote]


Call a spade a spade its still a 70 knot system the ring is incomplete

01E AMANDA 140524 1800 11.3N 110.1W EPAC 70 987[/quote]

I have to disagree completely. The eyewall is 90% complete, and microwave imagery clearly depicts a very intense eyewall. Your theory of it being 70kts can't hold true because as soon as the eye clears, it will most likely be a major hurricane... So that would mean a 30kt jump in wind speed... 85kts is more realistic, although that maybe a bit conservative.


Once (and of course IF) the eyewall becomes completes, the eye usually clears out and we will very likely have a major hurricane. Which is why the ADT numbers are so high right now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[/quote]

It was going though a eyewall replacement at the time intensity always drops seen ITA's drop by more than 40 knots during the process and not recover.

[Yellow Evan]

I can't wait for the discussion.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
800 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014

Amanda has continued to rapidly intensify over the past few hours,
with the cloud pattern now featuring a ring of very cold cloud tops
surrounding an eye that has quickly cleared out and warmed in the
last several infrared images. The latest Dvorak satellite estimates
include a T5.5/102 kt from SAB at 00Z, a T6.0/115 kt from a special
02Z TAFB classification, and 92 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT at 0200Z.
Based on a blend of these, the initial intensity has been set to 100
kt, and this could be conservative given the trends seen in the
latest infrared images.

Additional intensification appears likely over the next 12 to 24
hours. The NHC forecast in the short term is above all of the
guidance, but is closest to the FSU Superensemble. By 36 hours,
steady weakening is expected to begin as Amanda encounters
increasing shear ahead of an approaching mid-/upper-level trough and
SSTs cool along the forecast track. The NHC forecast late in the
period is close to the intensity consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 295/04. Amanda is expected to turn
northwestward by 24 hours and northward by 48 hours as the mid-level
ridge centered over Mexico weakens. After that time, a continued
slow northward motion is expected as a weakening Amanda moves
between a re-building ridge to the east and a mid/upper-level
trough approaching from the west. The new NHC track forecast is
close to the previous one and remains along the east side of the
track guidance envelope. At days 4 and 5 the NHC track is close to
the FSU Superensemble.

The operational intensity estimate of Amanda at 00Z was less than
100 kt. Therefore, this makes Amanda the second earliest major
hurricane on record in the eastern North Pacific basin, behind only
Hurricane Bud of 2012.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 11.6N 110.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 11.8N 111.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 12.3N 111.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 12.9N 111.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 13.8N 111.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 15.0N 111.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 16.0N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 17.0N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[hurricanes1234]

Oh my gosh! The person who expected a jump from 80 mph to 115 mph was right! I can't believe we have a Category 3 in the Pacific right now! Should I fall off my seat now?

Edit: Wait a minute! This jumped by 30 knots in 6 hours! Is this one of the largest ever between two advisories?

[Kingarabian]

Oh my gosh! The person who expected a jump from 80 mph to 115 mph was right! I can't believe we have a Category 3 in the Pacific right now! Should I fall off my seat now?

Edit: Wait a minute! This jumped by 30 knots in 6 hours! Is this one of the largest ever between two advisories?

That visible that Cycloneye posted bought me.

[CrazyC83]

Category 4 is probably not unrealistic right now by 0900Z.

[Yellow Evan]

Category 4 is probably not unrealistic right now by 0900Z.

Agreed. There's an outside shot it'll break Adolph's record or at least come close.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Rapid intensification at its finest.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

To be honest, this storm is more impressive than any other storm in both the EPac and ATL last year.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

...and it's continuing to rapidly intensify. This has the looks of a Category 4 hurricane.

[Ntxw]

To be honest, this storm is more impressive than any other storm in both the EPac and ATL last year.

And it happened so quickly and with little resistance that's so impressive. I think many of us deep inside gave it a small chance with caution given how used we are to systems going through cycles and struggling. She did it without blinking.

[Yellow Evan]

To be honest, this storm is more impressive than any other storm in both the EPac and ATL last year.

And it happened so quickly and with little resistance that's so impressive. I think many of us deep inside gave it a small chance with caution given how used we are to systems going through cycles and struggling. She did it without blinking.

Yea, I thought it had a shot, I just did not want to be ridiculed out for thinking that.

[Ntxw]

Loop, agreed with other posts still intensifying

[Kingarabian]

I've been tracking EPAC storms since 2004 (didn't bother to search up weather forums at that time ) and through time, I learned to give every storm a chance. No matter what the obstacles were, and what the forecasts were, I always gave every storm a shot, be it a depression or not. It certainly is fun watching storms become something they weren't supposed to be. Just hope they all stay clear away from land.

[stormkite]

To be honest, this storm is more impressive than any other storm in both the EPac and ATL last year.

And it happened so quickly and with little resistance that's so impressive. I think many of us deep inside gave it a small chance with caution given how used we are to systems going through cycles and struggling. She did it without blinking.

Yea, I thought it had a shot, I just did not want to be ridiculed out for thinking that.

Yeah i would agree with that seems there's a pecking order on this thread.

[Yellow Evan]

Holy cow.

[galaxy401]

This has certainly surprised me!