EPAC: AMANDA - Post-Tropical

[MGC]

Amanda is slowly getting her act together the afternoon. Should continue to slowly organize. IMO the odds are better than even for Amanda to reach hurricane intensity......MGC

[hurricanes1234]

I definitely think this will peak as a hurricane. It has three days left and conditions are favourable, 29 degree Celsius water, and possibly weakening shear. The only potential problem as someone stated before, is the lack of moisture to the west.

[Yellow Evan]

I definitely think this will peak as a hurricane. It has three days left and conditions are favourable, 29 degree Celsius water, and possibly weakening shear. The only potential problem as someone stated before, is the lack of moisture to the west.

I think dry air to it's north could cause it's demise as it is likely to interact with the subtropical jet offshore Baja California Sur. Also, SST's upwelling could be an issue if it moves slower than expected. Still, it has plenty of time to deepen, but I don't think it'll bomb out. Too early in the season IMO.

[cycloneye]

It looks like is organizing at a steady pace.Saved loop.

[Yellow Evan]

On a triva note:

If and only if Amanda becomes a hurricane, it would be the third May hurricane in 3 years.

[Cyclenall]

Too early in the season IMO.

It isn't.

Looks to me that its more than steady intensification; Amanda is organizing fast. I can already tell an eyewall is forming quickly and banding continuously forming at once. Funny because it was just hours ago that I heard TS Amanda was on the books and now its going to be the first 'cane .

[cycloneye]

Up to 45kts.

EP, 01, 2014052400, , BEST, 0, 111N, 1089W, 45, 1002, TS

[hurricanes1234]

Wow! Looks very good and appears to be developing an eyewall on visible images! And it's only May!

[hurricanes1234]

Based on this rounded appearance, I'd personally estimate it to be at least 50 knots. Could this be the start of the rapid deepening the SHIPS has been talking about?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The low-level and mid-level centers look much better aligned than several hours ago, and it appears that Amanda is taking on a quicker rate of intensification as a result. A well-defined Central Dense Overcast has developed, and there are signs of an eyewall on visible as pointed out. With that said, there are no recent microwave images to say with uncertainty.

The 0z SHIPS is now indicating a 66% probability of a 25kt increase in winds over the next 24 hours, and it brings the storm up to 85kt. The LGEM peaks at 81kt. I would not at all be surprised if it made a run at Category 2 status.

After the storm begins to move appreciably northward in about 72 hours, however, it will enter the region of high wind shear and drier air I mentioned yesterday. This should cause it to weaken pretty quickly by the end of the forecast period. I doubt Amanda makes it to Baja California.

[Yellow Evan]

Based on this rounded appearance, I'd personally estimate it to be at least 50 knots. Could this be the start of the rapid deepening the SHIPS has been talking about?

I was just about to post that image.

I'd go with around 50 knts myself as well. It looks like one of those intensifying TS's before sunset. I may be noticing early hints of an eyewall.

[Yellow Evan]

I doubt Amanda makes it to Baja California.

I doubt it as well. A storm has never ever come close to BCP in May.

[stormkite]

Agree with the 50 knots


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Kingarabian]

I think RI is in the works right now.

[Kingarabian]

Too bad the SSMIS pass missed.

[Yellow Evan]

I think RI is in the works right now.

Possibly for now.

[stormkite]

looks a midget system on sat-pic very small destructive core. Almost stacked thinking it will end up being a cat2 range system.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[zeehag]

we certainly dont want it here in estado colima de mexico.....even if it is pretty

[Yellow Evan]

we certainly dont want it here in estado colima de mexico.....even if it is pretty

It's expected to remain well-offshore, at least for the next four days. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Forecast to go up to cat 2


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
800 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014

...AMANDA STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 109.1W
ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST. AMANDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND AMANDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
800 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014

Amanda has organized quickly over the past few hours. Deep
convection now wraps more than halfway around the estimated center
position, and an AMSR-2 microwave pass a few hours ago showed the
development of a mid-level eye feature. Based on the latest ADT
estimate from UW-CIMSS the initial intensity has been increased to
50 kt. Now that Amanda is developing inner-core structure, it seems
likely that the cyclone will be able to take advantage of the
favorable environment and intensify, possibly rapidly, during the
next day or so. The SHIPS model shows the shear remaining 10 kt or
less for the next 36 hours, and the SHIPS RI index shows a 58
percent probability of a 30-kt intensity increase in the next 24
hours. The official intensity forecast has been adjusted sharply
upward and shows Amanda becoming a hurricane by 24 hours. A peak in
intensity is shown at 48 hours, however, it is possible that
Amanda could strengthen more than indicated here. After 48 hours,
the shear will begin to increase ahead of an approaching trough and
the cyclone will be moving over somewhat cooler waters, which should
result in gradual weakening. The NHC forecast is a little above most
of the guidance through 24 hours and is close to the IVCN intensity
consensus after that time.

The initial motion estimate is 290/04, as the cyclone continues
to move slowly around the southwestern side of a weakening
mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. This slow west-northwestward
motion is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. A turn
toward the northwest is shown around 48 hours, with a gradual
northward acceleration expected late in the period as the ridge
restrengthens to the east and a mid/upper-level trough approaches
from the west. The track model guidance has trended somewhat faster
this cycle, especially by day 5, and the official forecast has been
adjusted in that direction. Otherwise, the new NHC track is largely
an update of the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 11.2N 109.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 11.4N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 11.7N 110.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 11.9N 111.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 12.2N 111.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 13.2N 111.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 15.0N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 17.0N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan