EPAC: AMANDA - Post-Tropical

[hurricanes1234]

The outlook page does not have 1E labelled on it. Therefore, it doesn't seem that you can access advisories there. You'll have to go to the latest advisories page. Is that a new change for 2014?

[Yellow Evan]

The outlook page does not have 1E labelled on it. Therefore, it doesn't seem that you can access advisories there. You'll have to go to the latest advisories page. Is that a new change for 2014?

Yea, that's to make room for the new 5 day GTWO's. To get the advisories, just scroll down to the bottom of the NHC's home page.

[cycloneye]

EP, 01, 2014052300, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1076W, 25, 1007, TD

[hurricanes1234]

No change, although it does look better.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm a little surprised they kept it at 25 knts. It looks pretty good in my eyes.

[stormkite]

Think this will eventually get captured by a upper trough and re curve to the NE.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looking very impressive for a TD. Rapid development dje to favorable conditions.

[euro6208]

First tropical cyclone in the western hemisphere...

Lusi and/or Mike did not make it past 180 in the SPAC?

Yes Mike, Kofi, and Ian.

Let me rephrase that.

First tropical cyclone in the americas

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
800 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 107.8W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
800 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014

The convective appearance of the depression is somewhat disheveled
this evening, as the coldest cloud tops are located north and
east of the estimated center position. The initial intensity is held
at 25 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB. The
satellite presentation, satellite analyses from UW-CIMSS, and the
SHIPS model suggest that some southerly and westerly shear
associated with a mid/upper-level trough well to the north is
currently affecting the cyclone. During the next day or so, this
environment should support only gradual intensification. As the
trough moves away the shear should decrease, which should allow for
more strengthening later in the period while the cyclone is over
warm waters. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one through 72 hours, and has been adjusted upward toward the IVCN
intensity consensus after that time, and is close to a blend of the
SHIPS and LGEM models.

The center of the depression has been difficult to locate with
geostationary and microwave imagery. However, a blend of satellite
fixes and continuity yields an initial motion of 290/04. The cyclone
is expected to move slowly west-northwestward for the next couple of
days, as a mid-level ridge to the east weakens and the trough north
of the depression moves eastward. Through 48 hours the new official
forecast is a little faster than the previous one and is close to a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Later in the period much of the
guidance has shifted northward, with the GFS, GEFS ensemble mean,
and GFDL taking the cyclone sharply poleward by day 5 as a ridge
rebuilds to the east. The HWRF also shows a northward turn but is
slower, while the ECMWF shows a much slower motion farther to the
east of the rest of the guidance. Given the large shift in the
guidance this cycle, only small adjustments have been made to the
NHC forecast late in the period. The NHC track is close to the
previous one at days 3 and 4, and has been adjusted a little to the
north and east at day 5, but remains well south of the multi-model
consensus at that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 10.6N 107.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 10.8N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 11.1N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 11.4N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 11.6N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 11.8N 110.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 12.0N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 12.5N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[stormkite]

Looks very close to a upgrading appears a lot better organised now.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[hurricanes1234]

I agree with the fact it's a little disheveled on the latest frames. I think there is a very small chance this will become a hurricane but will likely strengthen nonetheless.

[stormkite]

First tropical cyclone in the western hemisphere...

Lusi and/or Mike did not make it past 180 in the SPAC?

Yes Mike, Kofi, and Ian.

Let me rephrase that.

First tropical cyclone in the americas

At a lose here euro trying to understand your logic if this is a cyclone why do you think the depression in BOB was not?

B/ TRACK stats atm

01E ONE 140523 0000 10.5N 107.6W EPAC 25 1007
92B INVEST 140523 0000 16.2N 91.0E IO 25 1002
was down to 1000

[Yellow Evan]

Yes Mike, Kofi, and Ian.

Let me rephrase that.

First tropical cyclone in the americas

At a lose here euro trying to understand your logic if this is a cyclone why do you think the depression in BOB was not?

B/ TRACK stats atm

01E ONE 140523 0000 10.5N 107.6W EPAC 25 1007
92B INVEST 140523 0000 16.2N 91.0E IO 25 1002
was down to 1000

Pressure tend to lower in the WPAC/NIO than the EPAC.

[stormkite]

Yes Mike, Kofi, and Ian.

Let me rephrase that.

First tropical cyclone in the americas

At a lose here euro trying to understand your logic if this is a cyclone why do you think the depression in BOB was not?

B/ TRACK stats atm

01E ONE 140523 0000 10.5N 107.6W EPAC 25 1007
92B INVEST 140523 0000 16.2N 91.0E IO 25 1002
was down to 1000

Pressure tend to lower in the WPAC/NIO than the EPAC.

35 knots is the benchmark in any basin fullstop.

[euro6208]

Yes Mike, Kofi, and Ian.

Let me rephrase that.

First tropical cyclone in the americas

At a lose here euro trying to understand your logic if this is a cyclone why do you think the depression in BOB was not?

B/ TRACK stats atm

01E ONE 140523 0000 10.5N 107.6W EPAC 25 1007
92B INVEST 140523 0000 16.2N 91.0E IO 25 1002
was down to 1000

Pressure tend to lower in the WPAC/NIO than the EPAC.

It was a depression but JTWC doesn't upgrade systems in the NIO until they reach 35 knots- a tropical storm. This applies for the whole indian ocean, australian region and south pacific.

[cycloneye]

Let's not deviate from the topic of the thread and that is TDOne-E.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

First tropical cyclone in the western hemisphere...

Lusi and/or Mike did not make it past 180 in the SPAC?

Yes Mike, Kofi, and Ian.

Let me rephrase that.

First tropical cyclone in the americas

First tropical cyclone in the North-Western Hemisphere...

[stormkite]

First tropical cyclone in the North-Western Hemisphere...

First tropical cyclone in the North-Western Hemisphere...

There's a 25 knot puff of clouds to the east is that a cyclone

[Yellow Evan]

Given it looks pretty good. I'm thinking the odds of becoming a hurricane are slowly increasing. Conditions should be good for a few days at least. I don't think it'll bomb out, conditions don't look that good, though it's already surprised us once.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The exact track of 01E will very much play into its overall intensity. The subtropical jet hasn't yet lifted appreciably northward, meaning that if 01E takes a more northerly track, it will run into higher wind shear and not amount to much more than a moderate to strong tropical storm.

If it takes a farther west track...as is being alluded to by the models and the NHC...then most of the shear will remain to the storm's north and it will remain in a low shear, very moist environment. In this case, I think a decent Category 1 hurricane would be possible.

Right now, I'm cautiously forecasting a peak of 75 mph. This may go up or down 10 mph or so depending on the track.