Texas Spring-2014

[wxman57]

Not even a trace of rain in Houston per the 12Z GFS today. Beautiful temperature plot, though. Perfect cycling weather, though the morning temps are a bit cool this weekend.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

lows in the 60's in May, i'll take it for as long as we can!

[JDawg512]

I don't agree with the CPC outlook for summer. It has most of Texas in the drier than normal category yet with the way the Pacific is and the coming of El Nino, I can't see how their outlook will pan out. They have already been wrong this year, so I am not that confident with this forecast.

Models are beginning to come together for a wet Memorial Day weekend. I got 3.59 inches from this last system and what a great week. It was still pretty chilly early this morning when I went out to get the dog in.

[weatherdude1108]

I don't agree with the CPC outlook for summer. It has most of Texas in the drier than normal category yet with the way the Pacific is and the coming of El Nino, I can't see how their outlook will pan out. They have already been wrong this year, so I am not that confident with this forecast.

Models are beginning to come together for a wet Memorial Day weekend. I got 3.59 inches from this last system and what a great week. It was still pretty chilly early this morning when I went out to get the dog in.

Isn't it usually that way for a long-term Texas Summer forecast? Pretty hard to get that prediction wrong (except 2007). I know what you mean though. Seems weird in an El Niño prediction.

[TheProfessor]

The 6z GFS dumps 9 inches of rain in the North-central part of the panhandle next week, and drops about 4-5 inches in parts of North-central Texas.

[horselattitudesfarm]

I also found this prediction for the summer in the lower 48:



Of course, its Accuweather, so who knows

[Ntxw]

A lot of folks are forecasting intensifying drought in Texas this summer. Is this even possible with an oncoming El Nino? I've seen heat before with oncoming El Nino, but never growing drought with one. Drought persisting with improvement sounds better to me. They all must be forecasting something unprecedented without a La Nina First for everything right? Maybe the Pacific oscillations will collapse at record pace and we plunge into La Nina within the next 3 months (though physically impossible).

[Ntxw]

Posted on twitter by JB so I guess it's ok to post it here too. Given these areas in the Panhandle average less than 20 inches of rain a year the coming rain will definitely put a huge dent on their drought. They sorely need it more than anyone else. For the rest of Texas it's going to get very humid, rich moisture content air. Maybe we will get popcorn slow moving storms in the afternoons

[ravyrn]

Posted on twitter by JB so I guess it's ok to post it here too. Given these areas in the Panhandle average less than 20 inches of rain a year the coming rain will definitely put a huge dent on their drought. They sorely need it more than anyone else. For the rest of Texas it's going to get very humid, rich moisture content air. Maybe we will get popcorn slow moving storms in the afternoons

http://i60.tinypic.com/ztll5.jpg

I really hope that comes to fruition. Or even more so. I understand this could lead to some flooding in some places, but honestly, at this point I think the panhandle would rather take the flooding and mollywhop the drought as opposed to take just a nice steady rain. I know a lot of their reservoirs out there are empty or near empty.

[weatherdude1108]

"000
FXUS64 KEWX 190834
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
334 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN
THE MOIST LAYER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FROM MEXICO EASTWARD ALONG THE NRN GULF
COAST. A DEEP SOUTHERLY WIND WILL EXTEND INTO THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE AIR WILL BE CONTINENTAL IN
NATURE ABOVE AROUND 7 KFT INITIALLY. BY LATE THURSDAY SOME OF THE
MODEL DATA HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A TAP TO THE UNSTABLE
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN DEVELOPING INTO THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.

WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A MORE STABLE AND DRIER PATTERN LATE THURSDAY
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE PATTERN IS NOT FAR OFF THE BROADER
SOLUTIONS OF MODELS THAT ARE MORE GENEROUS WITH PRECIPITATION SUCH
AS THE ECMWF. WILL COMPROMISE THE TWO MODELS WITH BEST RAIN
CHANCES INITIALLY HOLDING WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 THROUGH SATURDAY AND
THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD BY SUNDAY. WEEKEND DPROG-DT ANALYSIS OF
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE THEN CUT-OFF LOW SHIFTING NORTHWARD
WITH LATER RUNS...BUT BELIEVE THAT THE DEEPENING MOIST LAYER AND
CONVECTION COULD HELP REINFORCE A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THAT FROM THE CONVEYOR BELT OF THE CUT-OFF
LOW...WHICH COULD SIGNAL A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND."

[weatherdude1108]

Anybody on this forum from El Paso? I have visited a couple times, and driven/flown through it several times. I am flying out there on Wednesday and Thursday for a work trip. Just wondering what to expect weatherwise, except nearly guaranteed sun, heat, and dry? The SPC keeps mentioning a high fire danger for the area sometime this week. They may get wetter weather after I leave(?), but just making sure in the clear for Wednesday/Thursday.

I have to stop through Dallas on the way there and on the way back Wednesday and Thursday. That in itself always makes me nervous going through Dallas. I had to spend the night in the Dallas Airport once, many years ago, because of thunderstorms and no hotels available. Used my bag as a pillow. Made the best of a less than ideal situation. Got a flight the next morning. Anyway. Flying adventures!

[wxman57]

Anybody on this forum from El Paso? I have visited a couple times, and driven/flown through it several times. I am flying out there on Wednesday and Thursday for a work trip. Just wondering what to expect weatherwise, except nearly guaranteed sun, heat, and dry? The SPC keeps mentioning a high fire danger for the area sometime this week. They may get wetter weather after I leave(?), but just making sure in the clear for Wednesday/Thursday.

I have to stop through Dallas on the way there and on the way back Wednesday and Thursday. That in itself always makes me nervous going through Dallas. I had to spend the night in the Dallas Airport once, many years ago, because of thunderstorms and no hotels available. Used my bag as a pillow. Made the best of a less than ideal situation. Got a flight the next morning. Anyway. Flying adventures!

I'll fly to Dallas tomorrow afternoon (after my presentation in New Orleans) for a talk on Wednesday. Warm and dry all across Texas this week. Quite dry, dewpoint-wise, in El Paso:

[weatherdude1108]

Anybody on this forum from El Paso? I have visited a couple times, and driven/flown through it several times. I am flying out there on Wednesday and Thursday for a work trip. Just wondering what to expect weatherwise, except nearly guaranteed sun, heat, and dry? The SPC keeps mentioning a high fire danger for the area sometime this week. They may get wetter weather after I leave(?), but just making sure in the clear for Wednesday/Thursday.

I have to stop through Dallas on the way there and on the way back Wednesday and Thursday. That in itself always makes me nervous going through Dallas. I had to spend the night in the Dallas Airport once, many years ago, because of thunderstorms and no hotels available. Used my bag as a pillow. Made the best of a less than ideal situation. Got a flight the next morning. Anyway. Flying adventures!

I'll fly to Dallas tomorrow afternoon (after my presentation in New Orleans) for a talk on Wednesday. Warm and dry all across Texas this week. Quite dry, dewpoint-wise, in El Paso:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/elpgfs12zmay19.gif

Thanks wxman57!

I'll bring my shades.

[TheProfessor]

The 6z GFS has a lot of rain for areas North of I-20 in North Texas as well as for the Wichita Falls area for early next week.

[Portastorm]

Pulling out an old adage from wxman57: we may not know how this event will unfold per the models until a day or two before. (rough paraphrase)

It seems like the GFS has been a bit more squirrely about where that upper low parks and how progressive in nature it is. CMC and Euro seem to be more bullish on rain for Texas by the middle of the upcoming holiday weekend.

Of course here in Austin it's hard to think heavy rain potential and Memorial Day weekend without thinking of the prodigious 1981 Memorial Day flood event.

http://www.lcra.org/about/newsroom/feature-stories/2011/pages/The-Memorial-Day-Flood-a-look-back.aspx

[DonWrk]

What an amazing in-depth forecast discussion this morning!

[Portastorm]

What an amazing in-depth forecast discussion this morning!

I'm assuming you mean the morning AFD out of NWS Fort Worth? Yes, of course it was an amazing in-depth forecast discussion. Did you see who wrote it? Mr. Cavanaugh.

[weatherdude1108]

What an amazing in-depth forecast discussion this morning!

I'm assuming you mean the morning AFD out of NWS Fort Worth? Yes, of course it was an amazing in-depth forecast discussion. Did you see who wrote it? Mr. Cavanaugh.

Does Mr. Cavanaugh know how good he is?? He really has made a reputation for himself up there. I would think any forecast office would be honored to have him on the team.

[Tireman4]

What an amazing in-depth forecast discussion this morning!

I'm assuming you mean the morning AFD out of NWS Fort Worth? Yes, of course it was an amazing in-depth forecast discussion. Did you see who wrote it? Mr. Cavanaugh.

Does Mr. Cavanaugh know how good he is?? He really has made a reputation for himself up there. I would think any forecast office would be honored to have him on the team.

You know the PWC could use him....

[DonWrk]

What an amazing in-depth forecast discussion this morning!

I'm assuming you mean the morning AFD out of NWS Fort Worth? Yes, of course it was an amazing in-depth forecast discussion. Did you see who wrote it? Mr. Cavanaugh.

Yes sorry for not being more specific. After reading I knew exactly who wrote it!