Texas Spring-2014

[Texas Snowman]

HEAVY rain in Denison - off and on, more on than off - for the last 45 minutes.

[Portastorm]

Good for you folks in North Texas. Looks like a lot of rain up there and in the Valley and SE Texas as of mid morning. And nothing here in Austin.

Unfortunately the areas that need it most in Texas are getting, once again, the proverbial shaft.

[Ntxw]

Flood advisory for Dallas and Rockwall counties. Be careful out there, urban streets. These bands are training dropping some heavy rain pretty quick over the same areas.

[gboudx]

Yeah, Rockwall county has seen some nice heavy banding, but so far closer to dhweather's location than mine. But it looks like the banding is setting up further north so my area should get in on it. Maybe my next ride to the water edge in Ray Hubbard will only take 0.4 miles.

[TheProfessor]

I hope another line develops, because I don't think that storm dropped an inch of rain here.

[gboudx]

According to Steve McCauley this was the first wave of rain.

The first wave of rain has made its way across the Metroplex. Rainfall totals range from 0.02" to 2.50" !

[weatherdude1108]

Good for you folks in North Texas. Looks like a lot of rain up there and in the Valley and SE Texas as of mid morning. And nothing here in Austin.

Unfortunately the areas that need it most in Texas are getting, once again, the proverbial shaft.

Yeah! What is going on??

I'm about ready to move somewhere that it rains, like Dallas or the valley.

[Portastorm]

Good for you folks in North Texas. Looks like a lot of rain up there and in the Valley and SE Texas as of mid morning. And nothing here in Austin.

Unfortunately the areas that need it most in Texas are getting, once again, the proverbial shaft.

Yeah! What is going on??

I'm about ready to move somewhere that it rains, like Dallas or the valley.

It is truly mind boggling. I have no idea why it doesn't rain here anymore. The last time any rain of consequence occurred was last October. Every damn computer model and TV met model I have seen in the last day showed, at a minimum, 3/4" of rain or more. If convective development does occur this afternoon in the Hill Country and move east, it's going to need to be strong and slow to match up with the forecasted totals. And I seriously doubt that happens.

And for as bad as it is for us, just imagine how they feel in San Angelo or Lubbock or Amarillo.

[Ntxw]

Eastplexers are getting it. Unequal pay out there, some must be really frustrated. HRRR wasn't crazy after all.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC085-113-231-257-397-081815-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FF.W.0004.140508T1622Z-140508T1815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1122 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN COLLIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
NORTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
HUNT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
NORTHWESTERN KAUFMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
ROCKWALL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1119 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS
DETECTED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES.
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING
THROUGH 115 PM CDT.

* LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAIN
INCLUDE...GARLAND...HEATH...ROWLETT...SACHSE...ROCKWALL...FATE...
ROYSE CITY...QUINLAN...FARMERSVILLE...CADDO MILLS...GREENVILLE...
CELESTE...CAMPBELL...COMMERCE AND WOLFE CITY.

[dhweather]

Heck of a time for my rain gauge to mess up. It's recorded 0.17 and we've had way more than that, easily 1-2"

[South Texas Storms]

Good for you folks in North Texas. Looks like a lot of rain up there and in the Valley and SE Texas as of mid morning. And nothing here in Austin.

Unfortunately the areas that need it most in Texas are getting, once again, the proverbial shaft.

Yeah! What is going on??

I'm about ready to move somewhere that it rains, like Dallas or the valley.

It is truly mind boggling. I have no idea why it doesn't rain here anymore. The last time any rain of consequence occurred was last October. Every damn computer model and TV met model I have seen in the last day showed, at a minimum, 3/4" of rain or more. If convective development does occur this afternoon in the Hill Country and move east, it's going to need to be strong and slow to match up with the forecasted totals. And I seriously doubt that happens.

And for as bad as it is for us, just imagine how they feel in San Angelo or Lubbock or Amarillo.

Alright guys let's try to calm down now. Most of the models are showing a line of heavy storms developing near I-35 this afternoon as the dryline approaches. If we don't get anything this afternoon, more storms could develop tomorrow afternoon during daytime heating.

[dhweather]

Good for you folks in North Texas. Looks like a lot of rain up there and in the Valley and SE Texas as of mid morning. And nothing here in Austin.

Unfortunately the areas that need it most in Texas are getting, once again, the proverbial shaft.

Yeah! What is going on??

I'm about ready to move somewhere that it rains, like Dallas or the valley.

It is truly mind boggling. I have no idea why it doesn't rain here anymore. The last time any rain of consequence occurred was last October. Every damn computer model and TV met model I have seen in the last day showed, at a minimum, 3/4" of rain or more. If convective development does occur this afternoon in the Hill Country and move east, it's going to need to be strong and slow to match up with the forecasted totals. And I seriously doubt that happens.

And for as bad as it is for us, just imagine how they feel in San Angelo or Lubbock or Amarillo.

I feel you pain Porta, Today is the first time we haven't been Lucy'd in a long time. Watching radar this morning, it looked like we were about to get Lucy'd again, then boom.

[Ntxw]

Alright guys let's try to calm down now. Most of the models are showing a line of heavy storms developing near I-35 this afternoon as the dryline approaches. If we don't get anything this afternoon, more storms could develop tomorrow afternoon during daytime heating.

It's a slow moving trough. Better chances shift to the south heading into this weekend. Everyone has a chance of on and off daytime activity. Then the models bring in another trough with more coverage on Mon/Tues for a lot of areas. Active 7 day period. But as Porta said the one area of Texas that will see virtually nothing is where the drought is at it's worst, west Texas and the panhandle. They get very little rain to start with as an average as it is.

[Portastorm]

Alright guys let's try to calm down now. Most of the models are showing a line of heavy storms developing near I-35 this afternoon as the dryline approaches. If we don't get anything this afternoon, more storms could develop tomorrow afternoon during daytime heating.

OK Mr. Savvy Young Meteorologist Fresh Out of Met School ... I'm going to re-assure myself and my rain hopes based on your word!

[South Texas Storms]

Alright guys let's try to calm down now. Most of the models are showing a line of heavy storms developing near I-35 this afternoon as the dryline approaches. If we don't get anything this afternoon, more storms could develop tomorrow afternoon during daytime heating.

OK Mr. Savvy Young Meteorologist Fresh Out of Met School ... I'm going to re-assure myself and my rain hopes based on your word!

Haha Porta, check out the radar now. You have a line of developing storms heading your way. Now if only it will hit SA like the latest high-resolution models are indicating this afternoon.

[dhweather]

WFAA reports that 3.59" fell in Heath, 3.77 in Rockwall. 1.18 in Dallas, .42 at DFW and .31 in Fort Worth

[weatherdude1108]

Alright guys let's try to calm down now. Most of the models are showing a line of heavy storms developing near I-35 this afternoon as the dryline approaches. If we don't get anything this afternoon, more storms could develop tomorrow afternoon during daytime heating.

OK Mr. Savvy Young Meteorologist Fresh Out of Met School ... I'm going to re-assure myself and my rain hopes based on your word!

Haha Porta, check out the radar now. You have a line of developing storms heading your way. Now if only it will hit SA like the latest high-resolution models are indicating this afternoon.

I just saw that line developing in the last hour. Maybe this will edge it a little closer to the grande total QPF predictions for this area. We'll see.

[gboudx]

Looks like the radar is lighting up the SW of the Metroplex. Guess this is the next wave of precip.

[Portastorm]

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0525
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 081811Z - 082015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL/N
TX DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME SVR WIND/HAIL IS POSSIBLE BUT
UNCERTAINTY ON SVR COVERAGE LIMITS WATCH PROBABILITIES AT THE
MOMENT. STORM TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE PRIMARY DRYLINE FROM SW OK
SWWD INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY DRYLINE LIKELY
EXTENDS FROM COOKE COUNTY IN N TX SSWWD TOWARDS KERR COUNTY IN
S-CNTRL TX. CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER CNTRL TX APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SECONDARY DRYLINE. BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE
IMPETUS FOR INCREASING TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE REGION ARE GENERALLY POOR...OWING TO WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED HEATING AMIDST MOIST LOW-LEVELS WILL HELP
PROMOTE AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY. MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS 35-45 KT...WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS. SHEAR DECREASES ACROSS E TX...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EWD.

OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY LIMITED BY INSTABILITY
BUT ANY PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS MAY BE CAPABLE OF SVR WIND/HAIL.
UNCERTAINTY ON SVR COVERAGE IS HIGH...LEADING TO LOWER WATCH
PROBABILITIES BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

..MOSIER/HART.. 05/08/2014

[Ntxw]

HRRR shows another possible training line somewhere. Given how the convection has fired in a line not surprising. Maybe someone else will get lucky.