45 knots...
WTPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (TAPAH) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 20.6N 146.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 146.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 22.1N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 23.6N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.2N 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.5N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 146.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (TAPAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.//
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WDPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (TAPAH) WARNING NR
14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (TAPAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR),
ALONG WITH A 301539Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE, REVEALS A DEFINED AND
TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS
COMPLETELY EXPOSED AS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED OVER 30
NM FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED UPON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED NATURE
OF THE LLCC AND IS AVERAGED BETWEEN FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY
DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS STARTING
TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AS STRONG (30
TO 40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS STARTED TO COMPLETELY
OFFSET VIGOROUS WESTERLY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. TS 06W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS TAPAH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE NEXT DAY BEFORE RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF PERSISTENTLY
STRONG VWS, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND ABSORPTION INTO
THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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