#302 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Apr 28, 2014 2:32 pm
SPC AC 281919
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
VALID 282000Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS...AL...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA...MS...AL...TN...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS A LARGE AREA
FROM THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY EWD TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FROM PARTS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. NUMEROUS TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE INTENSE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY.
...PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...
/1/ AREAS FROM CNTRL MS TO NWRN AL HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO HIGH RISK
FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK. SEMI-DISCRETE/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE
EVOLVING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS STRETCHING FROM N-CNTRL
MS TO W-CNTRL MS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD FORM FARTHER S WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...WITH ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS
PARTS OF MS INTO WRN AL. WITH WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS
SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG AMIDST 200-400 M2/S2 OF
EFFECTIVE SRH...AND GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SEPARATED/ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN GREATER COVERAGE OF TORNADOES
WARRANTING THE HIGH RISK UPGRADE. SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE
EXPECTED.
/2/ MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE TO THE MODERATE RISK TO INCLUDE MORE OF
NERN LA...SRN MS...AND WRN/CNTRL AL TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM/TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT/DRYLINE OVER THE SABINE VALLEY...WITH THE GREATER SVR RISK
SPREADING EWD ACROSS AL TONIGHT.
/3/ THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS EXTENDED NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN
KY...WRN VA...AND VICINITY FOR SVR WIND AND TORNADO RISK SHIFTING
ENEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
..COHEN.. 04/28/2014
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