Texas Spring-2014

[opticsguy]

SREF from this morning. All models have DFW below freezing Tue AM. There goes my tomatoes.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs ... __f081.gif

[Ntxw]

As if that wasn't bad enough, the guidance is showing a couple more cool to cold intrusions following it.

However we can't say we didn't see this coming. Aprils with oncoming major El Nino.

[Jarodm12]

NTXW http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... e=&ps=area

Is that frozen precip on the 06utc nam high res at 60 hrs? across north texas?

[Ntxw]

NTXW http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... e=&ps=area

Is that frozen precip on the 06utc nam high res at 60 hrs? across north texas?

It looks like it but it's too light though. I don't know what to make of it I've never utilized the HI RES nam, the stuff in the panhandle and Oklahoma is more confidence.

[Jarodm12]

im waiting for the 12 utc this is getting quiet entertaining. LOL snow in texas what happend to spring?

[Ntxw]

im waiting for the 12 utc this is getting quiet entertaining. LOL snow in texas what happend to spring?

Where is spring you ask? On the other side of the globe in Eurasia! 40s in Siberia!



Canada still has -20s...atrocious! It's heading south



Just look at that contrast, unbelievable and is NOT normal

[Ntxw]

Lets just call it the second coming of winter. Tireman4 had his wish, we skipped spring, summer, and fall

[Tireman4]

[quote="Ntxw"]Lets just call it the second coming of winter. Tireman4 had his wish, we skipped spring, summer, and fall


Woo Hoo. Yep, I can like this. Cool runs. Clear days. Not running the A/C. Oh my goodness. Wxman 57 cannot catch a break. Let us have this run into June and I am a happy camper.

[ravyrn]

12z GFS and NAM for DFW Airport





Hopefully those rain chances on the GFS late next week pan out.

[dhweather]

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Saturday, 12 April 2014 14:03 CDT

Good afternoon,

We continue to watch for the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms on Sunday. We appear to have all of the ingredients necessary for a round or two of severe thunderstorms: plenty of moisture, instability, lift, and adequate wind shear. A short pdf has been included to depict timing, impacts, and areas likely to be affected.

BOTTOM LINE: Emergency Managers, public safety officials and storm spotters should be prepared for the possibility of severe weather on Sunday. There appears to be two rounds of storms, one in the morning, and another in the late afternoon. The late afternoon round will be stronger, but the morning storms will likely affect a larger area. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible in North Texas on Sunday. Any jurisdiction with outdoor activities should be monitoring for the occurrence of lightning, as well as the occurrence of any severe weather. Like most severe weather scenarios, there will be a wide range of impacts. Some (most) areas will not see any impacts from severe thunderstorms. A few locations will see major impacts.

IMPACTS, AMOUNTS, AND AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN: Nearly everywhere in the WFO Fort Worth area of responsibility will have the potential for strong to severe weather on Sunday. However, the further east you go, the higher your potential. The highest potential for storms (highest rain chances) are in the north and east, and are shown on page 3 and 4 of the attached pdf. The strongest storms will occur in the second round of thunderstorms in the late afternoon, and these will likely have the higher impacts. The graphic on page 6 shows the area that is most likely to have the largest hail and the higher tornado potential. However, do not let your guard down if your jurisdiction is not in the orange area. The graphic on page 6 shows the likely area where the dry line will be during the late afternoon hours, and will therefore be in the prime position for maximum heating and maximum wind shear.

TIMING: First round of showers / thunderstorms (possible impacts – hail and gusty winds): 7AM to approximately Noon

Second round of thunderstorms (possible impacts- hail, winds, tornadoes): 2 PM to 10 PM

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: There is moderate confidence in the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms during the afternoon on Sunday. There are several things which could make this forecast go wrong, but tomorrow’s severe weather chances will come down to the position and timing of the dryline and other subtle boundaries. We feel confident that there will be two rounds of storms with a break in between. Once we see afternoon sunshine, the air mass will likely destabilize, leading to strong thunderstorms in the late afternoon. Not everyone will see storms tomorrow. Those that do, will likely see severe weather.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: All of these are possible (in general order of likelihood):

Morning showers and thunderstorms linger longer than anticipated, decreasing the amount of instability
Thunderstorms occur, and produce localized heavy rainfall amounts, leading to localized flooding issues
Cap holds and no thunderstorms occur.

[Ntxw]

Great write up. I would like to add a few things. Given there is no warm front intersecting the dry line initiation isn't guaranteed. Once again we must watch outflow boundaries from the morning event to see where such boundaries sets up to focus initiation from the dry line and persist feeding off such boundaries.

Another thing that needs to be watched is the cold front. Such strong fronts often arrive earlier than anticipated and undercut storms.

[Ntxw]

Protect that vegetation! NAM MOS has DFW at freezing, GFS MOS is mid 30s. Either way a compromise is close and outside the big cities could be. If for some reason DFW does record the freeze it will be the latest ever, currently held by 1957 and 1997.

[Lagreeneyes03]

SREF from this morning. All models have DFW below freezing Tue AM. There goes my tomatoes.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs ... __f081.gif

Will this cold snap kill all of the vegetation that we currently have? Green leaves on trees, gardens, flowers, bluebonnets, etc??? If so this is absolutely horrible.

[TheProfessor]

It would depend on how resilient to the cold the plants are. And bluebonnets are weeds so I don't know how the cold effects them.

[somethingfunny]

bluebonnets are weeds

I don't think this freeze will be prolonged or deep enough to do any significant damage, especially in the Metro, but cover up all your sensitive flowers and buds just in case.

[opticsguy]

Anything under 40 will put tomatoes into shock, which will take them a week to recover from and more susceptable to disease and pests. If the leaves turn purple, they are in shock.

Basil will be killed by sub-40 also.

[SouthernMet]

Everyone be careful out there today. There is the potential for some very strong storms across north texas today.

[Ntxw]

I think the severe weather threat for DFW and surrounding areas is looking less this morning. We won't be clearing out for destabilization and these light elevated showers will continue for much of today. Not the stuff that leaves outflows just from overrunning moisture via the STJ. East Texas will get thunderstorms but even there it's not all that favorable. SPC has downgraded their risk outlooks.



Bigger news story will be the frost and freezes

[Ntxw]

Anything under 40 will put tomatoes into shock, which will take them a week to recover from and more susceptable to disease and pests. If the leaves turn purple, they are in shock.

Basil will be killed by sub-40 also.

A lot of annuals start struggling below 40. Frost probably makes it worse given that the winds will be nearly calm. GFS is now nearly freezing for DFW and Weds morning may be another sub-40 morning. The same model has DFW brushing near freezing again Friday and Saturday

Some records may fall this week, either lows or daytime low-highs

[gboudx]

Anything under 40 will put tomatoes into shock, which will take them a week to recover from and more susceptable to disease and pests. If the leaves turn purple, they are in shock.

Basil will be killed by sub-40 also.

I'm going to cover my basil and veggie plants with a thick tarp and hope for a greenhouse effect from the warm ground. I just planted last weekend so everything is still < 8". I may be ok.