Texas Spring-2014

[South Texas Storms]

Once again San Antonio misses out on the heavy rain. .10 inch at my house there. It would be really nice if we could get a rain event that brings over .50 inch of rain to that area of the state.

[weatherdude1108]

Got a whopping 0.08 at my house. Could you Dallas folks share some of that liquid gold down this direction?

[aggiecutter]

So far today, Texarkana has received 1.50" of rain, with more to come tonight.

[weatherdude1108]

It did not get out of the 50s today!

Maybe we need to open back up the Winter thread. Not complaining!

The longer we can hold off Texas Summer, the better IMHO.

[dhweather]

From the FWD AFD this morning:


BY SATURDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE BAJA REGION. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS WITH A FAIRLY STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH IN TOW.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY SUNDAY AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
A VERY STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH
RAISES SOME CONCERNS REGARDING RAIN CHANCES. FURTHERMORE DUE TO A
SURFACE HIGH TAKING UP RESIDENCE OVER THE GULF FROM MID-LATE
WEEK...DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN 1
INCH OVER NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS DO SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LIFT THE
CAP AND FINALLY PULL SOME DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE WISE TO TEMPER ENTHUSIASM ON
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES OR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
POINT. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN WOULD FAVOR BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
AND SEVERE WEATHER IN EASTERN AREAS RATHER THAN WESTERN...AND
THEREFORE WILL SHOW 20 POPS WEST AND 30 OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES. THE STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. DEPENDING ON WHETHER
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS
ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LATE SEASON FROST OR SPOTTY FREEZE
BEHIND THIS FRONT. IN SUMMARY...STILL TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE
SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING THE CONVECTIVE OR COLD AIR POTENTIALS
OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT MAY BE A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE WE GET A
GOOD HANDLE ON IT.



Two points to note:

1) The friggin CAP

2) Possibility of scattered frost/freeze

[dhweather]

Joe B tweets:

BigJoeBastardi: Heh SUper El Nino Mongers

We know you are hoping for a major spike, but its a come and go warm event . Us pays big price next winter


BigJoeBastardi: The cold DECADOL PDO warm enso much different than warm ones of 80s/90s. Sorry, a global spike, than bigger downturn follows, like 9/10


BigJoeBastardi: You will have 6-9 months to scream warming, then when cooling starts anew, you will have to go back to climate change

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Once again San Antonio misses out on the heavy rain. .10 inch at my house there. It would be really nice if we could get a rain event that brings over .50 inch of rain to that area of the state.

Looks like some very nice radar returns for Bexar county this afternoon...

[img]http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=EWX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=29.47335052&lon=-98.53556061&label=San Antonio, TX&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0[/img]

[Ntxw]

Joe B tweets:

BigJoeBastardi: Heh SUper El Nino Mongers

We know you are hoping for a major spike, but its a come and go warm event . Us pays big price next winter


BigJoeBastardi: The cold DECADOL PDO warm enso much different than warm ones of 80s/90s. Sorry, a global spike, than bigger downturn follows, like 9/10


BigJoeBastardi: You will have 6-9 months to scream warming, then when cooling starts anew, you will have to go back to climate change

He needs to keep his climate change debate out of Enso and stick to the data. He first called for a weak Nino which is likely to be left for dust by a bigger event.

[WeatherNewbie]

Will these lines of storms heading towards north Texas hold together long enough to hit the Metroplex?

[aggiecutter]

Will these lines of storms heading towards north Texas hold together long enough to hit the Metroplex?

Very possible. It looks like the Austin area is about to get hit with a pretty decent line of thunderstorms, also.

[Ntxw]

Interesting that we are getting these little lines from NW flow. Heights are quite low so severe weather is unlikely.

[Portastorm]

Whoa nellie ... we just went through quite the storm! Experienced about 20 minutes of multiple cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, wind gusts to 50 mph, and a LOT of pea-sized hail here at the Portastorm Weather Center. Also got about .30 inches of rain in less than an hour.

Here is a photo from the lounge deck of the PWC, covered in hail.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Tireman4]

[quote="Portastorm"]Whoa nellie ... we just went through quite the storm! Experienced about 20 minutes of multiple cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, wind gusts to 50 mph, and a LOT of pea-sized hail here at the Portastorm Weather Center. Also got about .30 inches of rain in less than an hour.

Where are the Grey Goose Vodka Bottles?

[South Texas Storms]

I'm a bit surprised there were no warnings issued for that storm that moved through your area Porta.
But I'm very happy and thankful we got rain today! A similar storm hit my house in SA this afternoon with small hail and about .40 inch of rain. Not bad!

[Shoshana]

No hail up here in N Austin.

Happy about that - I got caught in the hailstorm that hit last week when I was at Costco in N Austin.

Hail has to be a certain size before a warning is issued.

[weatherdude1108]

No hail up here either in South Cedar Park. Porta won on the hail!

Got lightning, thunder, and some gusty winds for a bit with some downed new tree growth twigs in places.

Got a grand total of 0.15 in my digital rain sensor, although my analog gauge four feet from it showed 0.3-0.4. It felt like more than 0.15 for sure(?). May need to see if there is debris stuck in the rain sensor. Not enough rain by any stretch, but nice to settle the pollen for a day or two.

[Ntxw]

GFS is quietly joining in the euro in a cold snap. Light frost could be possible for some and if you're outside of the big cities a light freeze isn't impossible. Garden interests definitely should pay attention.

[South Texas Storms]

GFS is quietly joining in the euro in a cold snap. Light frost could be possible for some and if you're outside of the big cities a light freeze isn't impossible. Garden interests definitely should pay attention.

0z GFS is quite wet in the long range as well! You buying it?

[JDawg512]

I'm a bit surprised there were no warnings issued for that storm that moved through your area Porta.
But I'm very happy and thankful we got rain today! A similar storm hit my house in SA this afternoon with small hail and about .40 inch of rain. Not bad!

Yea I feel the same way. I know the NWS did not issue a warning because the storm was apparently just alittle below severe storm criteria but tell that to the people that live a couple of houses down from me that had a tall Cedar Elm tree snap in half falling into the street blocking half of it. They were lucky because their car was unscathed just inches from the canopy. Had it fallen a few feet over it would have been crushed. I also saw a mailbox ripped right out of the ground pole and all as well as lots of tree limbs down and a bunch of trash and recyclable bins not only knocked over but were thrown all over with trash and debris everywhere. Its going to be a mess to clean up tomorrow.

Now whether the NWS thought it was severe or not, I know that we have had severe storm warnings issued for our area several times before and those storms did not produce the kind of damage we saw tonight. As one local news meteorologist put it was basically like splitting hairs when it came down to classification.

IMO that storm had higher winds than what the recording stations picked up. There were power outages in parts of the city and in West Campus a bunch of scaffolding fell on a vehicle driving by, luckily the people inside were okay. The damage I saw in my neighborhood could not have been done with 50 to 55 mph winds. There had to have been some pretty strong gusts above that to do what it did.

In situations like this if damage like what we saw tonight are being reported in a heavily populated area, that should have been the point where they issued a warning. A lot of people were caught off guard and were out and a bout in it.

[gboudx]

GFS is quietly joining in the euro in a cold snap. Light frost could be possible for some and if you're outside of the big cities a light freeze isn't impossible. Garden interests definitely should pay attention.

Yeah that's not awesome. I finally felt safe making my garden and finished it yesterday. Good thing everything is still small and I cover with a tarp to try and trap heat from the ground, without damaging the plants.