Texas Spring-2014

[newtotex]

I was right next to UNT campus yesterday at the Catholic Center and it got pretty dicey for a minute there, its basically a house with no basement so my anxiety got pretty bad. I'm fascinated/scared of tornadoes (product of growing up in Alabama) . My car didn't have any hail damage, but a mile or less away at TWU I had friends who had their windows blown out in the first storm that came through Denton.
I'm interested to know meteorologically speaking what caused the tornado to not touch down, it seemed to have a really impressive looking hook as it came across Denton, I'm glad it did not touch down though.
As per the ENSO, it looks more and more likely that we will be having an El Nino, which obviously is excellent news for Texas.
http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/20 ... egins.html

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow: I would agree. El Nino when it turns on adds a lot of tropical input as well as stronger storms and southern tracking systems.

I'm not liking the latest trends in the long range models that previously showed widespread heavy rainfall coming to a large part of Texas in the next 1 to 2 weeks. The GFS and GFS ensemble are now indicating that the southern tracking systems will not track as far south and only give heavy rain to the northeastern parts of the state, much like we have seen lately. It has been a really dry start to the year in central Texas and it's been so long since we've had a widespread heavy rain event here. We need a wet weather pattern! Ntxw, please give me some hope?

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow: I would agree. El Nino when it turns on adds a lot of tropical input as well as stronger storms and southern tracking systems.

I'm not liking the latest trends in the long range models that previously showed widespread heavy rainfall coming to a large part of Texas in the next 1 to 2 weeks. The GFS and GFS ensemble are now indicating that the southern tracking systems will not track as far south and only give heavy rain to the northeastern parts of the state, much like we have seen lately. It has been a really dry start to the year in central Texas and it's been so long since we've had a widespread heavy rain event here. We need a wet weather pattern! Ntxw, please give me some hope?

I'm with South Texas Storms! C'mon Ntxw, tell us there will be widespread, beneficial, soaking rains over the next two-three months, please????? I know it's not up to Ntxw, but I always look forward to the good news.

[weatherdude1108]

I miss those days/years when springtime squall lines went extend north-to-south across the bulk of the state and would roll eastbound, raining generously on many of us.

Those days, sadly, are gone, gone, gone. In 10 years or so, some are saying Austin will be the new San Angelo (climate, vegetative wise).

I've seen that San Angelo reference before. I have been to San Angelo. It was windy, dry, and chapping to the skin the last time I was there. I really do not wish San Angelo weather on Austin. They used to have their fair share of storms back in the day also.

I remember living in San Antonio as a kid, seeing those Spring/early Summer squall lines that started around Del Rio, and move across the the eastern two thirds of the state towards Houston during the overnight. The "just rained" aroma of the plants and soil would permeate the air when you step outside. Even West Texas to Lubbock and points east would get their typical wetter season Summer thunderstorms, which would, at times, make their way towards Austin/San Antonio during the overnight if there were a NW flow going on.

At least our proximity to the Gulf of Mexico makes it windy and humid (like the past several Springs/Summers). But that eventually dries things out when the most you can wring out of the humidity are a few sprinkles.

Ok, now I'm taking part in the South Texas Storms/Portastorm south central Texas pity party. We need some positive JUJU!! Praying El Nino works in our favor!

[Ntxw]

I miss those days/years when springtime squall lines went extend north-to-south across the bulk of the state and would roll eastbound, raining generously on many of us.

Those days, sadly, are gone, gone, gone. In 10 years or so, some are saying Austin will be the new San Angelo (climate, vegetative wise).

I've seen that San Angelo reference before. I have been to San Angelo. It was windy, dry, and chapping to the skin the last time I was there. I really do not wish San Angelo weather on Austin. They used to have their fair share of storms back in the day also. :

Oh dear goodness, our lead met from PWC is a little dramatic here. Austin finished the year last year with above average precipitation! San Angelo's wettest years are Austin's normal years. Austin's driest years is barely San Angelo's normal years (those are not common). So I promise you, Austin will not become a San Angelo. Unless the gulf of Mexico shrinks and retreats, if so I make no such promise!

We have to understand geology, climate, and geography before making claims about desertification and such. That's a different field than just everyday weather or weather patterns that happens a few years as much as we don't like them! It takes decades and hundreds of years to shift a climate. Austin didn't become a desert in the 30s and 40s and it won't become one now .

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: I would agree. El Nino when it turns on adds a lot of tropical input as well as stronger storms and southern tracking systems.

I'm not liking the latest trends in the long range models that previously showed widespread heavy rainfall coming to a large part of Texas in the next 1 to 2 weeks. The GFS and GFS ensemble are now indicating that the southern tracking systems will not track as far south and only give heavy rain to the northeastern parts of the state, much like we have seen lately. It has been a really dry start to the year in central Texas and it's been so long since we've had a widespread heavy rain event here. We need a wet weather pattern! Ntxw, please give me some hope?

I'm with South Texas Storms! C'mon Ntxw, tell us there will be widespread, beneficial, soaking rains over the next two-three months, please????? I know it's not up to Ntxw, but I always look forward to the good news.

Perhaps the sight of this, in thought, will lift up your spirit. Of course wxman57 is doing all he can to fight it off.

[weatherdude1108]

Now THAT, is a site for sore eyes!
That looks like an El Niño setup if I have ever seen one.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:
Now THAT, is a site for sore eyes!
That looks like an El Niño setup if I have ever seen one.

Correct! And it will only intensify as the months pass with the growth to a stronger Nino.

This is what it looks like without an El Nino. SW flow is a disaster for sure with this.

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow:
Now THAT, is a site for sore eyes!
That looks like an El Niño setup if I have ever seen one.

Correct! And it will only intensify as the months pass with the growth to a stronger Nino.

This is what it looks like without an El Nino. SW flow is a disaster for sure with this.

http://i62.tinypic.com/1zc17n.jpg

What are those three large dark areas southwest/west of Baja in the "second pic ("La Nada" or La Nina pic)? Really dry air?

[Ntxw]

Yes its exceptionally dry air. -PDO was strong and no stj in sight. That was during our late season heatwave late Aug and early Sept late last summer. Likely was a big contributor.

[dhweather]

Meanwhile, the FWD's AFD end with:

GULF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...IMPEDED A BIT MORE THAN USUAL BY A SURFACE HIGH THAT
DROPS WELL INTO THE GULF AND TAKES UP RESIDENCE THERE FROM MID TO
LATE WEEK. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT DUE TO MORE LIMITED SURFACE MOISTURE THE
PROSPECTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LOOK
LIMITED DUE TO A VERY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE


Cap, I sincerely hate you.

[dhweather]

I miss those days/years when springtime squall lines went extend north-to-south across the bulk of the state and would roll eastbound, raining generously on many of us.

Those days, sadly, are gone, gone, gone. In 10 years or so, some are saying Austin will be the new San Angelo (climate, vegetative wise).

Desertification of Texas?


http://texasdroughtproject.org/droughtfacts.html

[Ntxw]

I miss those days/years when springtime squall lines went extend north-to-south across the bulk of the state and would roll eastbound, raining generously on many of us.

Those days, sadly, are gone, gone, gone. In 10 years or so, some are saying Austin will be the new San Angelo (climate, vegetative wise).

Desertification of Texas?


http://texasdroughtproject.org/droughtfacts.html

Interesting article, this raised a red flag for me


Q - But what about El Nino? Isn't the phenomenon known as El Nino causing the drought?

A - The El Nino effect can contribute to drought, but it is not the only causative factor. It is predicted that El Nino will bring rains back to the region in the fall, but, scientists emphasize, that does not end the prospects for long-term drought.

Never heard of, or seen data that supports that. I think we all know what caused it, La Nina's and -PDO

[aggiecutter]

Reed Timmer just tweeted that there is a strong tornado threat for SE Texas for tomorrow afternoon and night.

[dhweather]

I miss those days/years when springtime squall lines went extend north-to-south across the bulk of the state and would roll eastbound, raining generously on many of us.

Those days, sadly, are gone, gone, gone. In 10 years or so, some are saying Austin will be the new San Angelo (climate, vegetative wise).

Desertification of Texas?


http://texasdroughtproject.org/droughtfacts.html

Interesting article, this raised a red flag for me


Q - But what about El Nino? Isn't the phenomenon known as El Nino causing the drought?

A - The El Nino effect can contribute to drought, but it is not the only causative factor. It is predicted that El Nino will bring rains back to the region in the fall, but, scientists emphasize, that does not end the prospects for long-term drought.

Never heard of, or seen data that supports that. I think we all know what caused it, La Nina's and -PDO

Ain't that the truth!

[Kludge]

I miss those days/years when springtime squall lines went extend north-to-south across the bulk of the state and would roll eastbound, raining generously on many of us.

Those days, sadly, are gone, gone, gone. In 10 years or so, some are saying Austin will be the new San Angelo (climate, vegetative wise).

So how desert -ified are you feeling this morning?

[gpsnowman]

I have waited months for a cold, rainy day. Well, it is here......on April 6. On my daughters b-day. But this rain is just awesome. So nice to see.

[TheProfessor]

This is probably my favorite weather, next to snow,. I love the rumble of thunder and the pitter-patter that is made by the rain.

[Ntxw]

Euro looks unusually chilly and raw late week. Could be a fluke but wouldn't surprise me. Oncoming El Nino's favors spring season chill.

[TheProfessor]

What kind of cold?