2014 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

94W THREAD



Invest now up...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Mid March numbers:
27/15/6

Sea surface temperatures and low wind shear could be more favorable for storm development this year, given the high chance of an ENSO-positive season this year.

[dexterlabio]

March seasonal forecast from Euro is out.








Looks like a classic EN setup in the Pacific and Atlantic. Lower MSLP is located near east of Luzon and in the open waters of WPAC. It looks like most of the activity will be in higher latitudes and farther east in the Pacific this year, if this forecast is to be believed. I can see a setup similar to 1982, 1994, 2006 and 2009.

[euro6208]

Possible cyclone formation during week 1 next month...

hmm, Isa part 2?

[euro6208]

With a traditional el nino on the way, i expect:

1. A very high number of super typhoons

2. An early start of WNP TC activity with a higher than average number during the early season (01 January to 15 July)

3. A tendency -- especially during the first half of the year -- for the TC tracks to be north oriented

4. A substantial eastward displacement of the mean genesis location for all TCs and for many of the individual TCs

5. Have some dateline crossers from the CPAC

6. Many developing in the monsoon trough at low latitutes

[euro6208]

869
AXGM70 PGUM 270438
DGTGUM
PMZ181-100400-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1430 PM CHST THU MAR 27 2014

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS STILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS...

SYNOPSIS...
AN EL NINO WATCH THAT WAS ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
REMAINS IN EFFECT...WHICH IN THIS CASE MEANS THAT EL NINO COULD
REPLACE THE CURRENT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS BY THE COMING MID-SUMMER
OR FALL MONTHS. THE ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
PACIFIC OCEAN AT THIS TIME...BUT WINTER-TIME HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HAS WEAKENED AND THE LARGER-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE
PACIFIC OCEAN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY. DRY WEATHER STILL AFFECTS FAR
NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS NORTH OF 10 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE FROM
160 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE DATE LINE.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT HOW THE LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE WESTERN PACIFIC WILL DEVELOP IN THE COMING MONTHS. MOST OF THE
CLIMATE MODELS INDICATE THE ENSO-NEUTRAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO
JUNE...WITH A WEAK EL NINO PATTERN DEVELOPING IN THE SUMMER OR FALL
MONTHS. FOR THE COMING WEEKS...SOME TRADE-WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHERN ATOLLS OF THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...
SUCH AS UTIRIK...RONGELAP AND ENEWETAK. A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH FOR
WOTJE AND KWAJALEIN AREAS...RAINFALL SHOULD BE ADEQUATE WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED THERE IN THE COMING DAYS. RAINFALL FOR
MAJURO AND THE SOUTHERN RMI WILL BE VARIABLE BUT ADEQUATE FOR LOCAL
USAGE.

ALTHOUGH DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS OF
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...SOME TRADE-WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
DURING THE COMING WEEKS. THIS APPLIES TO ENEWETAK...BIKINI...
RONGELAP...UTIRIK...MEJIT AND NEIGHBORING ISLANDS/ATOLLS. RAINFALL
FOR KWAJALEIN AND WOTJE AREAS HAS IMPROVED...WHILE MAJURO AND ATOLLS
SOUTH OF MAJURO SHOULD HAVE ADEQUATE RAINFALL IN THE COMING DAYS AND
WEEKS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

MAJURO...
RAINFALL HAS BEEN RATHER LOW DURING RECENT DAYS WITH ONLY SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND RAINFALL FOR MARCH SO FAR IS ONLY ABOUT HALF OF NORMAL.
THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS IN THE
COMING WEEKS...BUT WEATHER COULD ALSO BECOME DRY AT TIMES. WATER
CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE NEEDED TO AVOID DEPLETION OF WELLS...
RESERVOIRS AND CATCHMENTS IN CASE VERY DRY WEATHER RETURNS. AS OF
27 MARCH 2014...THE MAJURO RESERVOIR CONTAINED OVER 20.7 MILLION
GALLONS OF WATER...WHICH IS NEARLY TWO-THIRDS OF ITS CAPACITY.

ATOLLS NORTH OF MAJURO...
SOME TRADE-WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COMING DAYS...BUT DRY
WEATHER PERSISTS NORTH OF 10 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. AREAS TO THE
NORTH OF 10N WILL RECEIVE LOW AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN THE COMING
WEEKS. CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE NEEDED TO AVOID THE DEPLETION OF
WELLS AND CATCHMENTS...AND WELLS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE
SALINITY.

DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS IS LIKELY ON SMALLER ISLANDS AND ATOLLS WHERE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE. THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE CLOSELY
MONITORED...AND FOOD ASSISTANCE MAY BE NECESSARY IF DAMAGE TO PLANTS
AND FRUITS IS IRREVERSIBLE. WATER CATCHMENTS SHOULD BE MONITORED
VERY CLOSELY AS WELL.

ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO...
SIMILAR TO MAJURO...RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. ADEQUATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT
WEATHER COULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AT TIMES IN THE COMING WEEKS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
ALTHOUGH AN EL NINO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...THE ENSO-NEUTRAL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SPRING MONTHS INTO
SUMMER. CLOSER TO NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MID-APRIL
OR MAY FOR MOST ISLAND LOCATIONS.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH 25 DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
FOR MARCH 1-25
MARSHALL ISLANDS
MAJURO... 9.66 12.19 3.27 MINUS 3.00
KWAJALEIN... 3.81 13.82 7.78 PLUS 4.79
UTIRIK... 0.68 1.60 2.46 MINUS 0.37
WOTJE... 0.69 3.39 1.04 MINUS 2.12

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE DRY FLOW WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC IS ALSO CAUSING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
MICRONESIA.

REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

MAJURO...
A RELATIVELY MOIST TRADE-WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MARSHALL
ISLANDS WILL PRODUCE VARIABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE COMING DAYS.
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT MAJURO COULD RECEIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. ALL CATCHMENT
EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR PEOPLE TO CATCH RAIN WATER DURING
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWER EVENTS.

ATOLLS NORTH OF MAJURO...
SATELLITE AND COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT TIMES FOR AREAS NORTH OF 10 DEGREES NORTH. FOR AREAS
NORTH OF 10N...SUCH AS ENEWETAK...BIKINI...RONGELAP...UTIRIK AND
MEJIT...RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CONSERVATION MEASURES
ARE APPROPRIATE. FOR WOTJE AND KWAJALEIN AREAS...WHICH ARE SOUTH OF
10N...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS...CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE RECOMMENDED.

ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO...
THE CONVERGENCE OF A MOIST TRADE-WIND FLOW WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
RAINFALL FOR THE MARSHALL ISLANDS SOUTH OF MAJURO. COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATE THAT 3 TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THIS
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

OTHER IMPACTS...
AS OF MARCH 24TH 2014 THE CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREA WAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF 6 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE FROM 140 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE
EASTWARD TO THE DATE LINE. PEOPLE CAN MONITOR THE NOAA CORAL REEF
WATCH WEBSITE FOR BLEACHING ALERTS AND WARNINGS AT:
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML (LOWER CASE).

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON
APRIL 10 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO LOCAL
MEDIA OUTLETS AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR
LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND
DROUGHT INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

NWS WFO GUAM...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUAM/ /UNDER MENU ITEM CLIMATE...MORE/

PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.SOEST.HAWAII.EDU/MET/ENSO/INDEX2.HTML

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY
OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT
MAJURO...AND THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICE MAJURO.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...

WFO TIYAN GUAM
3232 HUENEME RD
BARRIGADA GU 96913
PHONE: 671-472-0946
W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

$$

SIMPSON/GUARD

[euro6208]

speaking of el nino box, we have a nice looking disturbance....

[Meow]

ECMWF expects a compact typhoon on 6 April.

[dexterlabio]

00z Euro still showing the same intense and compact typhoon on the 6th-7th of April. Wow. This is the first time since 2011 that I've seen ECMWF being aggressive ahead of GFS. And early in April. GFS has been aggressive this year with all Cat2+ typhoons it forecasted that only ended up as tropical storms/weak TD. Let's see if Euro will crash and burn also...

[dexterlabio]

would be eerie and creepy if that Euro run pans out... a freakish 1997 carbon copy..

[euro6208]

shear is low and it has a huge moisture envelope...

Getting interesting down there!

[Ntxw]

This little potential system has my interest. It follows perfectly with the arrival of the MJO, the WPAC could get early season boost in April. The euro is one of those models that doesn't like cyclogenesis but when it does especially persistently usually is a hint something may come forth. At the very least this region looks favorable.

[euro6208]

Ocean temperatures, Potential and Isotherm increasing...Almost primetime...

[cycloneye]

If 95W develops near the equator it would be a rare development.

[CrazyC83]

That looks more like a June thermal map than an April map...this could be one amazing year in the Pacific.

[Meow]

The estimated system became Peipah just now, but much weaker.

[euro6208]

While we all watch peipah, a large area of disturbance has developed southeast of Guam and seems to be trying to develop an LLC...

Peipah is a bust that was forecast to become a typhoon but could this be the BIG ONE???


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

While we all watch peipah, a large area of disturbance has developed southeast of Guam and seems to be trying to develop an LLC...

Peipah is a bust that was forecast to become a typhoon but could this be the BIG ONE???


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NWS products.

GFS develops it into a TD/TS. I think it would be stronger as it will form during the arrival of the MJO in our basin. Good thing that the next system will not pass the Philippines.

[euro6208]

interesting...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

interesting...

GFS is so bullish on this storm. I need long-term consistency and favorable conditions in order form me to believe and to be noticing the development of this system. I am still not so sold on this, although, this has good timing with the MJO. Let's see in the next few days.