Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

Neither the GFS nor the Euro indicates much precip in Texas for the next 10 days. The Euro rainfall map cumulative through 10 days has about a couple tenths of an inch up in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area and less than an inch in far SE TX. GFS is drier.

[Lagreeneyes03]

:uarrow: I meant by May the dry pattern will switch depending on ENSO. Our NE Pac warm pool is morphing into +PDO look. Wetter than normal and cooler than normal summer is a good bet. NW flow now yields dry because cold is still dominant. In the summer NW flow is a very different result as pwats and warmth (even below average) is much more considerable.

I just saw on McCauley's page that he said the long range data indicates hot, dry and intensifying drought I also saw another post or answer to a question that the El Nino may or may not materialize, it could be false signals like last year. What is he picking up on that you are seeing differently?

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: I meant by May the dry pattern will switch depending on ENSO. Our NE Pac warm pool is morphing into +PDO look. Wetter than normal and cooler than normal summer is a good bet. NW flow now yields dry because cold is still dominant. In the summer NW flow is a very different result as pwats and warmth (even below average) is much more considerable.

I just saw on McCauley's page that he said the long range data indicates hot, dry and intensifying drought I also saw another post or answer to a question that the El Nino may or may not materialize, it could be false signals like last year. What is he picking up on that you are seeing differently?

I dont see where he is seeing that. Hot, dry, intensifying summers tends to fall under La Nina which there is zero chance of. Most long range guidance and analogs suggeest warming ENSO trend. Even if the Nino doesnt occur they still dont suggest above normal and dry summer in Texas. Something in line with last summer is more likely and even better if El Nino kicks up faster. Follow the ENSO if you want info on Nino, too extensive to post here why it may or may not occur.

[gpsnowman]

Hey Portastorm! I will be in Austin this weekend with the fam. What kind of weather can you deliver for us? Cool and sunny would be nice but rain would be a nice sight since DFW has a rain shield over it.

[newtotex]

I'm moving to Central Florida at the end of May, and I can't wait to finally see rain!! After living in Texas I think that might be the thing I miss most about growing up in Bama, the rain and the full rivers and lakes. I never thought I would miss rain every other day in the summer until I moved here

[TheProfessor]

I'm moving to Central Florida at the end of May, and I can't wait to finally see rain!! After living in Texas I think that might be the thing I miss most about growing up in Bama, the rain and the full rivers and lakes. I never thought I would miss rain every other day in the summer until I moved here

Yeah you get more rain, but then you have to forfeit the other types of weather we get in North Texas. I love how it can be 80 degrees here one day, then the next day a a snow storm drops 7 inches of snow on you.

[dhweather]

I'm moving to Central Florida at the end of May, and I can't wait to finally see rain!! After living in Texas I think that might be the thing I miss most about growing up in Bama, the rain and the full rivers and lakes. I never thought I would miss rain every other day in the summer until I moved here

I hear you. Took rain for granted in Mississippi. Not here.

[Texas Snowman]

Big cold front tonight. Another freeze for Denison? It will be close.

[Texas Snowman]

But nary a drop of precip. Big grass fire near Ardmore yesterday in southern Oklahoma. Tomorrow could be a tough day for fires with the dry, north wind howling.

[Ntxw]

Major storm signal +- days towards the equinox. Keep on your toes

[Ntxw]

I'm moving to Central Florida at the end of May, and I can't wait to finally see rain!! After living in Texas I think that might be the thing I miss most about growing up in Bama, the rain and the full rivers and lakes. I never thought I would miss rain every other day in the summer until I moved here

Yeah you get more rain, but then you have to forfeit the other types of weather we get in North Texas. I love how it can be 80 degrees here one day, then the next day a a snow storm drops 7 inches of snow on you.

Thats the great thing about the plains. We whine and grope about it but its the nature of our region. It's feast or famine be it 50f temperature swings from hot to cold, 20 inches in a few hours, or barely a few inches for months. You learn to appreciate all kinds of weather once you experience the extremes of something. Most other regions its much more steady and gradual shifts. There is a reason tornado alley is where it is, extremes.

[dhweather]

The good news just keeps pouring in.


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=driest-ytd



January 1 - March 11: ranks as the 4th driest period in recorded history at DFW, with officially 0.84 of rain.

Waco has recorded it driest period in recorded history for the time period, 0.81 of rain.


Unfortunately, I believe there's a reasonable chance we won't see > 0.25 in the rest of March, intensifying the drought. Cavanaugh noted in this morning's AFD:

HOWEVER THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH SEEMS TO BE THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE DICTATING A WET VERSUS DRY FORECAST...SO IT IS
GOOD TO SEE MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AT THIS
TIME. QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT VERY HIGH IN ANY OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...MOSTLY BECAUSE IN ALL SOLUTIONS THE UPPER TROUGH IS
POSITIVELY TILTED UNTIL IT MOVES EAST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.
BUT...BEGGARS CANT BE CHOOSERS...AND WE REALLY NEED SOME RAIN...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WEEKENDS TROUGH
CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.

[weatherdude1108]

The good news just keeps pouring in.


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=driest-ytd



January 1 - March 11: ranks as the 4th driest period in recorded history at DFW, with officially 0.84 of rain.

Waco has recorded it driest period in recorded history for the time period, 0.81 of rain.


Unfortunately, I believe there's a reasonable chance we won't see > 0.25 in the rest of March, intensifying the drought. Cavanaugh noted in this morning's AFD:

HOWEVER THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH SEEMS TO BE THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE DICTATING A WET VERSUS DRY FORECAST...SO IT IS
GOOD TO SEE MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AT THIS
TIME. QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT VERY HIGH IN ANY OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...MOSTLY BECAUSE IN ALL SOLUTIONS THE UPPER TROUGH IS
POSITIVELY TILTED UNTIL IT MOVES EAST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.
BUT...BEGGARS CANT BE CHOOSERS...AND WE REALLY NEED SOME RAIN...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WEEKENDS TROUGH
CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.

Thank link you posted above, do any of those other record dry period years correspond with major drought years? It looks like the 50s and 30s drought are included in a few of those records, but not sure of the exact years. Just curious of the correlation, and what we can expect based on history(?).

[dhweather]

Thank link you posted above, do any of those other record dry period years correspond with major drought years? It looks like the 50s and 30s drought are included in a few of those records, but not sure of the exact years. Just curious of the correlation, and what we can expect based on history(?).

I think a lot of what to come is riding on us getting an El Nino. NTXW posted that most models are indicating an El Nino coming, there's a thread on that here:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137

[TheProfessor]

There is a fire to the northwest of me, I don't know whats burning, probably some dry grass or dry trees because of the lack of rain here. I'm worried that if the fire is still burning when the cold front comes, the winds might help spread the fire.

[dhweather]

[Ntxw]

The continent is still under the influence of very cold air. It's just so tough to see real severe weather anywhere (derechos, supercells). We've seen bouts of thunderstorms the past few months but no real severe weather outbreaks for the country since last November in the midwest. Still don't see that changing anytime in March, even early April. The semi-permanent Hudson/davis strait vortex is still spinning around up there collecting cold air which for most of the season has been over North America and remains so. Every time there is ridging in the NW it gets pulled down, still the case.



The current mid month +EPO regime is peaking right now. Right on cue, guidance is sending it down the depths. More Pacific ridging to come.

[vbhoutex]

Latest from Jeff Lindner. Mostly SE TX and Coastal Bend.

Late season cold front plowing toward the area this evening.

Strong cold front will cross SE TX prior to sunrise Wednesday with a dramatic increase in wind speeds Wednesday morning. North winds will increase into the 25-30mph range with gust to 40mph as strong 925mb winds mix to the surface. Gust across the coastal bend and along the I-35 corridor could be even stronger. RH values will tumble during the morning hours with strong cold air advection throughout the day. Tempers starting in the mid 50’s will only warm into the low to mid 60’s even with sunny skies and that now higher March sun angle. RH values fall to near 35-40% Wednesday afternoon and with gusty winds we are very near critical fire weather conditions. Think most regional grasses have started the spring green-up and widespread wetting rains last week have helped wet fine fuels. With that said areas west of I-45 and especially around Matagorda Bay are still very dry and with the strong winds fire danger will be increased. Areas west of I-45 are very borderline for Red Flag Warning conditions and a slightly lower afternoon RH or higher afternoon temperature will be enough to pull the trigger on the warnings early Wednesday. It will be even drier on Thursday, but luckily winds will be much weaker and this should preclude a significant wildfire threat.

Thursday morning lows under clear skies, low dewpoints, and light winds suggest mid to upper 30’s for most areas and would not be surprised the see another freeze in some of the typically colder locations…ie Conroe.

Moisture return begins on Friday with dewpoints starting to climb again sitting the stage for a warm and muggy weekend with scattered showers possible and the return of the pesky sea fog along the coast.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Major storm signal +- days towards the equinox. Keep on your toes

What kind of storm? Winter weather in late March??

[Portastorm]

OK gang, I think we're about to wrap this thread up for the year. I'm going to let it run until the end of March. Then we'll lock it down. Sure something "wintry" could occur in April as it did last year but those posts can be made in the Texas Spring thread in the "crazy Spring weather, eh?" mode.

But let's try something ... if y'all are willing ... before the end of March gets here, it would be very cool to have everyone post sort of their summary of the 13-14 winter. What was your highlight? Your low point? How did winter go in your particular area? Let us know. And thanks ravyrn for the idea! I'll start with mine:

HIGHLIGHT: wxman57's changing avatar late in the season. Never thought I'd see the day ... but what a glorious one it was! But I've said it before and I'll say it again, we are all very fortunate to have someone like him here. He's a classy and respected professional meteorologist on a national level. Yet, he takes time to interact with us and be crazy about the weather like we all are. And come tropical weather season, you best take ALL of his posts to heart. He's my go-to-guy for the tropics.

LOWLIGHT: Despite one of the coldest Austin winters in many a year, we still received zero snow and minimal sleet. What we did have was a lot of cold and 4-5 very marginal "freezing drizzle/rain" events. It has now been 10 years since Austin has seen an accumulating snow.

SPECIAL RECOGNITION: I won't call out anyone specific for fear that I will miss someone, but a number of you stepped up this winter season and got more active with a LOT of great posts. So much information and discussion went on here that it was amazing. Let me share with you all that I used to feel like I had to be the driver of this thread. No more. We have so many good folks here who ramped up their games or just came on the scene and made themselves known. I can now sit back and be more of a moderator and learn like everyone else! Thank you everyone for the outstanding contributions you have made here. YOU have made this forum a lot better and I know that will only continue.