SIO: EDILSON - Tropical Cyclone

[mrbagyo]

INVEST 96S. 20kts-1004mb-140S-590E
also shown in the image is 97S located east of 96S

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S
59.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 59.7E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
BROADLY INTO THE SYSTEM. A MOSAIC OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THE DISTURBANCE IS SLOWLY BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIR ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE NORTH, BUT MODERATE (20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
POLEWARD TOWARDS A POOL OF WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[wxman57]

It's already a tropical depression well on its way to becoming a tropical storm today. JTWC is behind the power curve on this one. Meteo France is on the ball:

[euro6208]

96S INVEST 140204 1200 16.2S 59.1E SHEM 25 1004

Latest...

JT has this as a TD but unfortunately, they don't declare cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere until they reach 35 knots.

[stormkite]

13S EDILSON 140205 0000 17.1S 59.5E SHEM 40 998

[mrbagyo]

ZCZC 089
WTIO30 FMEE 050653
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/10/20132014
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (EDILSON)
2.A POSITION 2014/02/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 59.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :93 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 200 SW: 190 NW: 0
34 KT NE: SE: 130 SW: 130 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/02/05 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2014/02/06 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2014/02/06 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2014/02/07 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 54.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2014/02/07 18 UTC: 28.1 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2014/02/08 06 UTC: 29.8 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/02/09 06 UTC: 33.3 S / 46.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2014/02/10 06 UTC: 37.7 S / 45.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
EVEN THE GENERAL WINDS STRUCTURE KEEPS A MONSOON LOW PATTERN, DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY O
RGANIZES AND SHOWS NOW A CURVED BAND PATTERN WRAPPING AT 4 TO 5 TENS AROUND THE CENTRE.
THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS HOWEVER LOCATED SLIGHT WESTWARD OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTRE.
DVORAK INTENSITY (KNES=2.5 AT 0530 ET PGTW=2.0 AT 0230Z) BECOMES CLOSER TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY E
STIMATION.
UNDERGOING TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS (REFER TO ECMWF 600 HPA FIELDS), ONE WESTERLY TO NORTH-WES
TERLY GENERATED BY THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THE OTHER ONE NORTH-EASTERLY GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPI
CAL RIDGE, SYSTEM IS THEREFORE DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS.
ON THIS TRACK, GETTING CLOSER TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE NORTH-EASTERLY STEERING FLOW BECOMES P
ROGRESSIVELY THE MAIN STEERING FLOW AND SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTH-WES
TWARDS THEN SOUTH-WESTWARDS.
NWP GUIDANCES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST TRACK.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GOOD (LOW SHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON BOTH SIDES). GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY.
NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRUCTURE COULD BE A BIT MORE CLASSICAL AS THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH 20
S. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS MAINL
Y LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
SOUTH OF 20S, THE NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, NWP GUIDANCES ALSO
SUGGEST A POSITIVE INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TRO
UGH THAT SHOULD PERSIST TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THIS INTERACTION MAY MAINTAIN OR SLIGHTLY
INCREASE THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL EVOLVE TO A POST-TROPICAL STRUCTURE.
IN REGARD OF TO THE EXPECTED TRACK, THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS (PARTICULARLY MAURIT
IUS ISLAND WITH A TRANSIT EXPECTED TO CLOSER ON THURSDAY MORNING) SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGR
ESS OF THE SYSTEM.
NNNN

[euro6208]

WTXS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EDILSON) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EDILSON) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 60.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 60.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.0S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.1S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 24.6S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 27.3S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 32.3S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 36.3S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 41.2S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 60.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (EDILSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAINT DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A RECENT 12-HOUR ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED THE
SAME SYMMETRY AND CONVECTIVE DEPTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 051013Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS TO REFLECT THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE
OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 13S IS 07 DEGREES
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS THAT ARE ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. IT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ON A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AS THE STR
BUILDS. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DEFLECT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS LOW VWS AND
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW PERSIST. AFTERWARDS, AS TC EDILSON MOVES FURTHER
POLEWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND POSSIBLY DISSIPATE IT BEFORE THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SOME SPREADING TOWARDS TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVED
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND 061500Z. //
NNNN

[stormkite]

EDILSON 140206 0000 20.0S 60.0E SHEM 45 989

[mrbagyo]

02-06-2014 - 08:00 UTC

[euro6208]

13S EDILSON 140206 1200 22.4S 58.2E SHEM 55 982

[stormkite]

Date: 2014- 02/06
Tropical Cyclone Edilson (13S) over Réunion and Mauritius

[euro6208]

WTXS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EDILSON) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EDILSON) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 28.9S 54.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9S 54.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 31.9S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 34.9S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 37.9S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 41.1S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 29.7S 53.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (EDILSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508 NM
SOUTH OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
071138Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICT A FULLY-EXPOSED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 13S IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SHARP UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30
KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH HAS LED TO THE RAPID
DECAY OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DESPITE THE LACK OF
DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50
KNOTS BASED ON THE TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW BANDING. TC 13S IS
TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THIS TRACK THROUGH TAU 36 AT WHICH
TIME THE SYSTEM WILL RE-CURVE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) STARTING NEAR TAU 24 AND COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 48.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN