SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014

[Steve]

>>By the way, our local met keeps mentioning an RPM model they use. Anyone familiar with that model? It is apparently very wet, or at least it was as of last night. Not sure about this morning.

I'm pretty sure that's one of those radar service company models like the Vipir. Television stations buy that service in conjunction with other products. There are a couple of N.O. Stations that have it as well. Sometimes they are good (tropical or otherwise), somtimes completely out to lunch. Vipir was good for Cindy in 2005 but not so good in most other storms I've seen. It deviated from most of the globals and tropicals to hit the landfall pretty close from a couple of days out.

As for windnrain's question, you can search for QPF. Google will bring up the Hydrometerorological estimates (I think from the GFS) for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 7 days out. It updates with the 00z and 12z models.

Steve

[windnrain]

Man.. 12z gfs was NOT kind to us. Our precipitation totals were even lower this time!

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KBTR

[BigB0882]

The trend is not our friend.

[windnrain]

Steve: Is there any way to find out, kind of like that site I just posted, the QPF that nam is saying we're gonna get in BTR?

[windnrain]

BigB, our only hope now is for another "whiff" like the models did on the last storm, and for that Feb 5th storm to pan out for us. The models REALLY underestimated Louisiana's precip last storm, and does that surprise you? We get thunderstorms and an inch of rain in an hour on 0-10% chance of precipitation days! I don't think these models know what the hell to do when frozen precip is involved in Louisiana lol.

[BigB0882]

Or we can hope the NAM is right on precip. It has much more than the GFS. It is just really odd to go from .7 to .2 in one model run. Goes to show that the models aren't really sure and the only thing to do is have no expectations and see what happens. But darn it, those expectations get me every time!

[Steve]

>>Steve: Is there any way to find out, kind of like that site I just posted, the QPF that nam is saying we're gonna get in BTR

Yeah, sort of. Someone posted it many pages back on one of the threads (TX or Deep South). I don't know what service you have to go to for that, but you can go to NCEP (search for NCEP Models, Model Output, NAM, North America) and run the precip or simulated radar. You can play around with it there on the NCEP site. I think Unisys might be the one where they draw in the actual precip, but I hardly ever use their outputs.

[PTrackerLA]

Everyone calm down! The fact is the models are still showing 3x more precip than they did for last Friday's event and that ended up being a pretty major situation around here. In about 12 hours we'll just start watching the radars and go from there. The models will continue to jump around and lets face it, that was a very quick uptick yesterday in the QPF and I definitely wasn't buying into a half foot here .

[BigB0882]

Good points, PT. I just saw those totals last night and they had been creeping up so I thought I could buy into them. I figured they were over-done but I thought we could depend on at least .5 QPF which 2-3 inches of snow on the back end. Now we will be lucky to have enough snow to even measure. I would really like some snow, the last event I saw a few flakes mixed in but did not see any actual snow showers. It was all sleet and freezing rain. Let's face it, freezing rain is BORING. At least sleet is fun to watch bounce off of everything and if you just look out the window it looks like snow on the roofs. haha I will just hope we get SOMETHING out of this and that it doesn't turn out to be a big bust.

WBR schools are closed Tue and Wed as are many others in the surrounding areas.

I hope it doesn't bust now, the schools would have to retract the Wednesday cancelations. lol

[Hurricane_Apu]

And the Lafayette School district, apparently based on the 12z run of the top secret Soviet KGBFS model, has already closed for Tuesday AND Wednesday...

But seriously, they're pretty much putting it all on black and letting it ride. If this storm underperforms significantly, or worse yet, we get a bare-ground bust (rather unlikely but far from impossible)... then the backlash is going to be off the charts. There's going to be a lot of students, staff and parents left stuck on the train tracks when the next major winter storm or hurricane hits...

[PTrackerLA]

It was a great idea to close schools. We're looking at alot more precip than last Friday with even colder temps. Travel will be dangerous if not impossible by tomorrow afternoon.

[windnrain]

So put this in terms that a hurricane tracker like myself can understand, what am I looking for? What should I pay attention to that will give us more precip?

With hurricanes, I know in the final stretch to watch the wobbles (because they make a lot more difference <24 hours out), watch for RI, watch for less than expected shear, watch for falling pressures, and watch for cloud tops.

What do I look for to determine if this one's gonna be big for my area?

[ROCK]

So put this in terms that a hurricane tracker like myself can understand, what am I looking for? What should I pay attention to that will give us more precip?

With hurricanes, I know in the final stretch to watch the wobbles (because they make a lot more difference <24 hours out), watch for RI, watch for less than expected shear, watch for falling pressures, and watch for cloud tops.

What do I look for to determine if this one's gonna be big for my area?

at so close to the event its time to look at real time data...how cold is it up north? how much does that ULL over near BAJA progress....radar, soundings...stuff like that....no way to know where we might see banding...\

good view of our ULL...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html

[HurriGuy]

Wow….the EURO is really lightening up just in total rainfall for Baton Rouge area. Compared to some simulated radars and other model runs total accumulated precip, it seems way down.

[windnrain]

Really? Someone inn the deep south thread said that the Euro shows INCREASED precip for Baton Rouge. I don't have access to Euro precip.

[HurriGuy]

WeatherBell ECMWF just finished up and it went from .5 to .3 inches total accumulation.

[BigB0882]

That's odd. Totally conflicting reports there.

Maybe total precip is down but the euro sees better profiles for all snow. So the snow may have increased in that run but not the total QPF.

[HurriGuy]

Yeah just found snowfall totals. Seem like it is trending up. From 12z yesterday to today, I see about a 1 inch increase.

[ROCK]

ULL really cranking...over running moisture....CMC might not be out to lunch.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html

[mcheer23]

ULL really cranking...over running moisture....CMC might not be out to lunch.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html

What exactly does this mean