SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014

[Kennethb]

I am a teacher, though! My poor students aren't going to learn a darn thing tomorrow. haha

Today might be a good day to teach weather to your students. Weather models 101.

I am sure they will be excited and not able to concentrate. Could also talk about weather safety, ice, staying warm. Why is it below freezing and yet it is not snowing?

[Stormnut]

Local NWS for Baton Rouge has changed from 1-3 inches to little or no accumulation.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yep for now has it all freezing rain. Their discussion this morning was useless. Gave us no info only duration for precip and freezing temps.

[BigB0882]

The GFS really backed off. Only giving us about .25 QPF and all of it sleet or freezing rain. What a bummer. Watch us end up getting almost nothing out of this in the end and last Friday end up being a bigger deal.

My biggest fear was the models backing off at the last minute. I suppose I can pray for this to be a one time thing and it will be back in the next run of the GFS. The NAM still looks good but it is usually bullish on QPF.

Amazing how you can go from historic event to no big deal in one set of models.

Did other models really back off, as well? I wonder why they were so quick to change totals if the GFS is the only model to back off so much.

I am so depressed.

[stormlover2013]

It's one run lol, we have a bunch of girls in here lol!!! 1 bad run y'all freak out

[BigB0882]

I can't help it. I feel like Lucy came in here and yanked the ball!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Bigb,

The gfs did back off by about half an inch, still shows getting an inch. But as you said its all ice. The reason the amounts are lighter is that it has the precip flying through here and finishing up in about 12 hrs. Much quicker than its runs from yesterday and the Nam is as well, which still has 1.5 I went and looked at a couple of gfs ensembles from the 00z runs and they showed the same thing. Could very well change up again in the 12z runs. If its all going to be ice we definitely don't need an 1.5in anyway.

[Ntxw]

Stay steady bigB, I think some of the problem is because some people were interpreting snow maps incorrectly (myself included not checking soundings.) Some of the algorithms for the maps simply thinks if its below 32 its snow, we know thats not always the case. Still good chance ice and sleet shuts down southern LA with a decent chance of some snow towards the end.

[Stormcenter]

Come on now everyone should know by now models never do a good job with these winter events even this close out. Just look at this past Friday, they had SE La. getting nothing and it was a mess there.

[PTrackerLA]

12z NAM shows .50"-75" of QPF for Lafayette. Looks like about 3-4" of snow with a large are of 6"+ in between Lafayette, Baton Rouge and New Orleans.

[BreinLa]

12z NAM shows .50"-75" of QPF for Lafayette. Looks like about 3-4" of snow with a large are of 6"+ in between Lafayette, Baton Rouge and New Orleans.

Dang PT you're full of good news today lol

[BigB0882]

PT, don't let the NAM fool you. Much of those totals are sleet or freezing rain. There is a warm nose that is way too warm to allow for snow until possibly the very end.

[Jagno]

Snow is exciting but the major concern is the freezing rain creating hazardous driving conditions. Heck just walking down my front steps was hazardous and I have the decorative grips on top of the concrete steps...............and my steps face south. No matter how the precip comes down it's going to be a mess. Stay safe, warm and off the roads.

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS shows only 1"-2" of snow for my area now QPF .25"-.50".

[PTrackerLA]

Should still be more than enough to warrant a winter storm warning for my area. The snowfall totals will continue to dance around. Still think some areas of south LA will get dumped on.

[BigB0882]

I guess I will take solace in that the GFS didn't get any worse. It shows a much shorter time of precipitation than yesterday's run. As someone said it is because it is much quicker getting the system through. Maybe it will be too fast with it. Just remember what happened last week! One good thing is that the 850 temps are awfully close to 0 when we get .11 of QPF so that could end up putting down some snow. Although it would be only an inch, max.

I am going to hope and pray that the GFS was right yesterday and today it is smoking something.

[BigB0882]

By the way, our local met keeps mentioning an RPM model they use. Anyone familiar with that model? It is apparently very wet, or at least it was as of last night. Not sure about this morning.

[windnrain]

Crazy to go from yesterday in Baton Rouge seeing .7 inches of precipitation and lots of ice and snow, to now seeing the weather channel barely even slot us in for ice. No winter storm warning either.

Was the 12z GFS kinder to us? Also, are there any places I can search for QPF from the NAM?

[BigB0882]

I am not sure why the Weather Channel wouldn't slot us in for anything. We are indicated by all models to get precipitation and temperatures do not appear to be a problem, at least not at the surface. Unless new models just ran and completely keep us dry but I haven't seen mention of that yet.

I figured we would be under a warning by mid afternoon. Have they issued warnings in other areas?

[windnrain]

12z NAM is giving us close to 00z GFS if I'm reading the QPF maps correctly:

http://weather.unisys.com/nam/nam.php?p ... inv=0&t=48

We get a little burst first, and then more later. light blue is .25 inches in 3 hours, dark blue is .375 inches in 3 hours. We're in light or dark blue at least twice. We're also in the light pink quite a few times, which is .1 inches each time.

This verifies, and we're still definitely in line for a big event!