SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014

[PTrackerLA]

18z GFS shows a solid 5" for Lafayette, 10" coastal MS, and we'll over a foot for NC and SC. Unbelievable event setting up.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

PT,

Can you post a map or link to where you are finding these totals this afternoon. Thanks.

[BigB0882]

I am confused. The 18zGFS I saw looked like nothing for Lafayette and BTR but then someone else says 5"? Which is it? lol

[Jagno]

18z GFS shows a solid 5" for Lafayette, 10" coastal MS, and we'll over a foot for NC and SC. Unbelievable event setting up.

Hmmmmm, any ideas for Lake Charles?

[BigB0882]

PTracker, I am on the edge of my seat waiting for confirmation on those totals. Does BTR have similar totals?

[PTrackerLA]

From JB's twitter:

https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastar ... 1778839552

[PTrackerLA]

Baton Rouge more like 6"

[BigB0882]

I just fainted.

[PTrackerLA]

I've never seen this much snow predicted by models for my area ever!

[Kennethb]

I just fainted.

It all depends on when and where the deformation bands set up. And of course when/if the change over to sneaux occurs.

[BigB0882]

I know nothing is ever guaranteed but I don't ever remember even having this kind of potential. Regardless of whether it is freezing rain or sleet or snow, it will be a huge event for our area if those QPF totals pan out. Even less than that will be incredible for us. I am hoping for all/mostly snow.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Its obvious we are going to have some freezing rain and sleet before the change over, anybody seen anything as to what ice accumulations are looking like?

[Jagno]

Its obvious we are going to have some freezing rain and sleet before the change over, anybody seen anything as to what ice accumulations are looking like?

Local saying 1/4" north of I-10 and possibility of more south of I-10 before the change over to snow.

[BigB0882]

I've read maybe a quarter to half inch of ice for most places before changeover. Although BTR may change over a little sooner as we are somewhat north compared to others in the path of the winter weather. Snow on top of ice is absolutely treacherous. If we do get more than a couple inches of snow on top of that ice then I wonder what that will do to highs on Wed. Right now they are forecast to be in the low 40s but all of that ice and snow will make the area into a big icebox and we may struggle to reach those temps. Could wreak havoc with the roads and interstate for 2-3 days.

[LaBreeze]

I've never seen this much snow predicted by models for my area ever!

PTrackerLA, do you think that this will actually come true? Is it more of an I-10 corridor event and north or would we (Vermilion Parish) get in on any of this action and if so, how much? Thanks in advance. Gumbo pots are still out and ready to cook again!

[BigB0882]

LaBreeze, do you know your city code? Or nearest major city? You can take this link and change the last three letters to whatever matches your city. If you want to tell me your city I can find the code and link directly for you:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KBTR

Change the BTR to your city code.

By the way, for those of us in and around BTR, the precip has gone way up. Over .50 now. I think the first half is mostly sleet? The 925mb and 500mb are below freezing but 850 is above. It could get close, during the portion of the period where we receive .18 of QPF the 850 layer is at 1 C. Any slight variation could mean that goes to freezing.

What happens when 850 is above and 500 is below? Sleet? Can you still get snow with 850s above 0?

[LaBreeze]

LaBreeze, do you know your city code? Or nearest major city? You can take this link and change the last three letters to whatever matches your city. If you want to tell me your city I can find the code and link directly for you:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KBTR

Change the BTR to your city code.

By the way, for those of us in and around BTR, the precip has gone way up. Over .50 now. I think the first half is mostly sleet? The 925mb and 500mb are below freezing but 850 is above. It could get close, during the portion of the period where we receive .18 of QPF the 850 layer is at 1 C. Any slight variation could mean that goes to freezing.

What happens when 850 is above and 500 is below? Sleet? Can you still get snow with 850s above 0?

Thanks, I was able to get it.

[BigB0882]

Very nice totals for Kaplan!
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=K7R4

[Ntxw]

What happens when 850 is above and 500 is below? Sleet? Can you still get snow with 850s above 0?

General rule is when 850 is 0c or lower that's snow falling. Look at 2m surface temperatures, if it's below freezing it's all snow and likely to stick with 850s 0c or lower, if 850s are above freezing but surface is below freezing then it's sleet. If 850s are significantly above freezing then it's likely freezing rain (if the surface is freezing). Not exact but general rule of thumb. And remember the amount of precip is for 3 hours before it on those meteograms so I would use the next 3 hours as a safety net once it hits 0c.

[Janie2006]

I've read maybe a quarter to half inch of ice for most places before changeover. Although BTR may change over a little sooner as we are somewhat north compared to others in the path of the winter weather. Snow on top of ice is absolutely treacherous. If we do get more than a couple inches of snow on top of that ice then I wonder what that will do to highs on Wed. Right now they are forecast to be in the low 40s but all of that ice and snow will make the area into a big icebox and we may struggle to reach those temps. Could wreak havoc with the roads and interstate for 2-3 days.

Normally I'd say you wouldn't reach those high temperatures. Assuming these figures verify you'd have the snow on the ground reflecting the sun's radiation back into the atmosphere, not to mention the effect of the snow/ice pack on surface temperatures.