SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Here you go boys! This should save you from the deadly cold that's headed Houston's way:

http://www.altitude-sports.com/en/canad ... MgodO1IAuQ

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

#BREAKINGNEWS Next Polar Plunge could be the Coldest for us down south!!! However, the Polar plunge WILL NOT be as Strong when it reaches South Florida.
The next blast of brutal cold will grip most of the eastern two-thirds of the United States early this week and could yield the lowest temperatures so far this winter in many communities.

While harsh cold is returning to the Midwest and Northeast this weekend, it will pale in comparison to what will follow for Monday through Wednesday.

The impending polar plunge will rival the frigid days from earlier this January for the coldest daytime highs and nighttime lows so far this winter. This does not include South Florida.

The arctic air is first plunging into the Upper Midwest, northern Plains and northern Rockies this Sunday, then will continue pressing to the south and east through Tuesday.

Our fans are working overtime today I see :


Please tell me there is some moisture down there!!???!!!

[Ntxw]

The arctic air is first plunging into the Upper Midwest, northern Plains and northern Rockies this Sunday, then will continue pressing to the south and east through Tuesday.

Our fans are working overtime today I see :[/url]

Please tell me there is some moisture down there!!???!!!

You have done a wonderful job with your fans! We appreciate your help and keep them coming, maybe we will send you a frozen Bevo as a souvenir when all is done!

[Janie2006]

Yep, looks like some moisture will be around. It could get wild n' wooly for some places that really aren't accustomed to any snow.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

The arctic air is first plunging into the Upper Midwest, northern Plains and northern Rockies this Sunday, then will continue pressing to the south and east through Tuesday.

Our fans are working overtime today I see :[/url]

Please tell me there is some moisture down there!!???!!!

You have done a wonderful job with your fans! We appreciate your help and keep them coming, maybe we will send you a frozen Bevo as a souvenir when all is done!

What's a bevo???????

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Yep, looks like some moisture will be around. It could get wild n' wooly for some places that really aren't accustomed to any snow.

This is going to be very exciting to watch!

I do feel ever so bad for all the lovely tropical plants down there however!

(and people and animals that aren't prepared for this too )

[Sean in New Orleans]

Yep, looks like some moisture will be around. It could get wild n' wooly for some places that really aren't accustomed to any snow.

This is going to be very exciting to watch!

I do feel ever so bad for all the lovely tropical plants down there however!

(and people and animals that aren't prepared for this too )

All my plants died a few weeks back here in New Orleans...everything will be replaced this year..but, that can be kinda fun. Only thing I work hard to protect is my Satsuma tree.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Good luck Sean and I can imagine most everything would need replacing down there.

I just saw where they are predicting the moisture to be....oh boy!


Haven't seen what other areas are expecting moisture but I gather Florida could also get in on the *fun*

So will any citrus fruit crops survive this??? RGV's or Florida's?

With the moisture you folks are capable of coming up with I'd be worried re this:


Southhampton, ON right now.

[Ntxw]

What's a bevo???????

It's the University of Texas mascot! It's a longhorn, the epitome of all that is Texas!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

What's a bevo???????

It's the University of Texas mascot! It's a longhorn, the epitome of all that is Texas!

They don't take to cold well do they??? Just how cold is it predicted to get in Houston???

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

sorry

[Tireman4]

Houston Area Forecast...


This Afternoon Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. South wind 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. South wind around 10 mph becoming west after midnight.
Monday Mostly cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 46 by 5pm. Breezy, with a west wind 10 to 20 mph becoming north in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Monday Night A slight chance of rain, freezing rain, and sleet after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Tuesday A chance of rain, freezing rain, and sleet before noon, then a chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 36. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Tuesday Night A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet before midnight. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 44.
Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32.
Thursday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61.
Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Friday A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69.
Friday Night A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60.
Saturday A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Not as bad as what I was afraid of...enjoy your snow from the safety of your yards!
(I read what Houstonians had to say under the pic I posted above )

[PTrackerLA]

Can anyone tell if the precip will be in the form of snow for Lafayette? NWS is going with freezing rain/sleet right now.

[Jag95]

The Mobile and New Orleans NWS discussions have it starting out as rain, freezing rain, and sleet near the coast and later (Tuesday night) going to snow as the column cools. Areas further inland may have a "cleaner" transition to all snow. As it looks now there will be a good bit of mixed bag near the coast.

[Stormnut]

Winter Storm Watch for SE La and SW MS
6am tue-6am wed

[vbhoutex]

From Jeff Lindner:

NWS will be issuing a Winter Storm Watch effective from 300am Tuesday until midnight Wednesday for all SE TX counties.[b]

High impact winter storm appears likely Tuesday and Wednesday.

Discussion:

Forecast models have come into much better agreement today with increasing threat of accumulating ice and snow across all of SE TX starting early Tuesday and lasting into early Wednesday. Nearly all global models agree that moisture and cold air will be in place at the same time to produce a period of mixed precipitation across nearly the entire area. Still some uncertainty in when exact locations fall to and below freezing on Tuesday which will dictate when exactly accumulations begin.

Temperatures:

Arctic front will push off the TX coast Monday afternoon with temperatures falling into the 30’s and 40’s for most areas by sunset. Freezing line will reach the northern counties between 1000pm and midnight and progress to the I-10 corridor by 300-400am and close to the coast by 800-1000am Tuesday. Do not expect much if any temperature recovery on Tuesday as increasing precipitation along with ongoing cold air advection will result in evaporative cooling of the air column and surface temperature. Think any amount of potential warm up will be under-cut by this process. Very cold Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with lows falling into the mid 20’s at many locations. Wednesday warm up will be slow and is highly dependent on the degree of cloud cover and when clouds begin to break. Way too soon to attempt to give any kind of feeling on when certain areas will rise back above freezing on Wednesday, but it will likely be after noon and if clouds do not thin and with ice/snow on the ground it may not happen at all.

P-type:

Going to be a mess trying to time P-types and changes at locations. Air mass is colder than the last event which would support more snow, but pesky warm layer is seen in soundings which has burned us before in this area (Feb 2011) keeping P-type more in the freezing rain category. Models want to produce more snow, but I am just not completely sold on it yet. Best P-type attempt and changeover right now:

[b]North of Brenham to Conroe to Cleveland: sleet and snow starting prior to 600am Tuesday and changing to all snow during the day.

North of I-10: freezing rain and sleet starting around 900-1100am changing to sleet and snow in the late afternoon.

Coast to I-10: freezing rain starting around noon. Freezing rain mixing with sleet by mid afternoon. Possible change to snow after 800pm Tuesday.

There is going to be changes with these P-types over the next 24 hours and this will affect accumulation amounts.

Accumulation:

Since the air mass and surface temperatures look colder with this event than the last…expect much more efficient ice/snow accumulation with much less melting. Appears most of the area will be at or below freezing at the onset of the precipitation which will help increase accumulation over last week. With that said…mixed phase precipitation is extremely hard to get good accumulation amounts on. Will keep things fairly general at this point

Freezing rain and ice accumulations of .10 to .20 across the area….mainly south of I-10

Snow accumulations of 2-4 inches north of Hwy 105…likely little freezing rain in this area

Snow accumulations of 1-2 inches all other areas on top of possible ice accumulation

Another aspect to keep in mind is the potential for meso scale snow banding which has been seen in past events (Dec 2004, Dec 2008, and Dec 2009) in which favorable lift can focus a period of moderate to heavy snow across certain locations. This is very much like trying to forecast training heavy rainfall in the summer months and is nearly impossible to determine until it is underway but can result in very quick and more significant accumulations.

Impacts:

Big impact is going to be onset of precipitation during the daytime hours versus overnight/morning. For the most part Tuesday morning 400-800am looks dry, with precipitation breaking out during the day. This will likely result in a fairly uneventful morning rush hour with conditions going quickly downhill in the afternoon hours and a potentially very difficult evening rush hour.

A note to be said about snow…most people think it is easier to drive on snow…and this is usually true, but only if the ground below the snow is at or below 32…which here is not the case compared to up north. Ground and roadway surface temperatures will be hovering in the 31-35 range which will melt falling snow into a layer of ice over top the pavement which then becomes snow covered. This produces extremely hazardous driving conditions and is very common in the southern states during snow events.

Given the colder surface air temperatures, may be looking at icing and accumulation on surface streets and just not bridges/overpasses. A layer of ice can form on surface streets even if the ground is above freezing due to surface cold air. Typically this will happen when temperatures are in the mid to upper 20’s for a period of time. This happened in Dallas in early December with air temperatures in the mid 20’s yet ground temperatures were in the mid 30’s.

Freezing rain looks likely especially south of I-10 to start the event and then it becomes important how quickly precipitation changes over to sleet or snow or some combination. Do not think accumulations will be enough to cause widespread disruption of power, but if the change was slower or does not happen amounts could be very near the .25 of an inch threshold to start to cause power problems. Other comment is that it is going to be colder, so almost all the freezing rain is going to glaze into ice very effectively with little moisture lost….this is a big difference from last week when the first .10-.20 of liquid was lost due to surface temperatures being above freezing..

[Jagno]

Definitely no hype or excitement for our local NWS forecast. Just west of here they are issuing watches but nothing here.

Monday Night
Slight Chance Freezing Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%
Low: 29 °F


Tuesday
Wintry Mix Chance for Measurable Precipitation 50%
High: 34 °F


Tuesday Night
Wintry Mix Chance for Measurable Precipitation 40%
Low: 22 °F


Wednesday
Slight Chance Freezing Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%
High: 41 °F

[vbhoutex]

$$



000
WWUS44 KHGX 262057
WSWHGX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
257 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TUESDAY...

.AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY DROPPING
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND FREEZING TO WELL BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST HELPING TO INITIATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET. THIS WINTER PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY EVENING ALONG THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW FALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SHOULD
BE COMMON OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH ISOLATED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE 20-25 DEGREE RANGE FROM INTERSTATE 10 NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE BACK ABOVE FREEZING AFTER NOON ON
WEDNESDAY.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-270500-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WS.A.0002.140128T0900Z-140129T0600Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
257 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

* TIMING...SNOW AND SLEET WITH SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN WILL
DEVELOP AROUND COLLEGE STATION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THEN EXPAND
EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE HUNTSVILLE AND CONROE AREAS
EVENTUALLY REACHING THE HOUSTON METROPLEX AROUND NOON. CLOSER TO
THE COAST FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE THE MORE COMMON FORM
OF PRECIPITATION AND SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 3 PM. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND AROUND THE COAST BY 9 PM.

* IMPACTS...VERY COLD ROAD SURFACES WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SURFACE ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED ROADWAYS. ELEVATED ROADWAYS MAY
BE ENTIRELY IMPASSABLE. TRAVEL MAY BE SEVERELY LIMITED.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[PTrackerLA]

Winter storm watch for all the NWS Lake Charles area. 1-2" of snow and up to a quarter inch of ice. Fingers crossed for a dump of snow! NAM indicates possibly 4"+!