Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

The latest Euro looks a lot like the NAM and CMC for you guys, snow in coastal Texas to south-central LA, New Orleans and up the gulf coast. Not the amounts but that's the swath.

[BigB0882]

Is Baton Rouge included in the euro or are we too far north?

[MississippiWx]

The latest Euro looks a lot like the NAM and CMC for you guys, snow in coastal Texas to south-central LA, New Orleans and up the gulf coast. Not the amounts but that's the swath.

Yep. The dry Euro and GFS models are coming around closer to their ensembles and the models that have been wet the whole time. Very interesting. Let's hope they keep trending wetter.

[Ntxw]

Is Baton Rouge included in the euro or are we too far north?

Northern fringe, core is just south of you towards New Orleans

[Ntxw]

The latest Euro looks a lot like the NAM and CMC for you guys, snow in coastal Texas to south-central LA, New Orleans and up the gulf coast. Not the amounts but that's the swath.

Yep. The dry Euro and GFS models are coming around closer to their ensembles and the models that have been wet the whole time. Very interesting. Let's hope they keep trending wetter.

The one problem is they keep going south which is evidence of the stronger push of cold air, it's fine line if the cold is stronger than expected it could push it into the gulf. But as of right now it is a rare snowfall for much of the northern gulf region

[MississippiWx]

Is Baton Rouge included in the euro or are we too far north?

You are around 1 inch of snow on the Euro. GFS is the same, but these are two of the drier solutions.

[BigB0882]

Thanks. Hopefully they trend a little further north as well but not too far, I want then coast in one the action, too.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Ntxw

Which models keep going south? The big ones look to be moving north now, cmc stays about the same. Only one I've really seen is the Nam but that's not saying much. It did horrible with our storm the other day.

[MississippiWx]

The latest Euro looks a lot like the NAM and CMC for you guys, snow in coastal Texas to south-central LA, New Orleans and up the gulf coast. Not the amounts but that's the swath.

Yep. The dry Euro and GFS models are coming around closer to their ensembles and the models that have been wet the whole time. Very interesting. Let's hope they keep trending wetter.

The one problem is they keep going south which is evidence of the stronger push of cold air, it's fine line if the cold is stronger than expected it could push it into the gulf. But as of right now it is a rare snowfall for much of the northern gulf region

0z runs have reversed the south trend probably thanks to the upper low ejecting east away from the Baja area. It's providing more lift and helping throw moisture back into the cold.

[Brent]

Can you post that map showing Louisiana?

[northjaxpro]

Well, looking at the most recent runs of GEM, NAM, CMC and GFS, this is shaping up to be a potential memorable winter event for the extreme Deep South. Defnitely subject to change of course,but it definitel appears for the moment that the immedate Gulf Coastal areas inland for about 100 miles or so from SE TX eastward to the SE US coast could be looking at some potentially impressive snow accumulations. It is looking more evident now observing the model runs that the Baja California shortwave will eject out east , which should energize the southern stream sufficiently to aid the isentrohic proessacross the GOM and points along the coast and about 100 miles or so inland.

Tomorrow's model runs I feel folks will really be crucial as to giving us a pretty good blueprint on how this event will shake down. But, no doubt we will have some good fewdays ahead monitoring this event. Heck this is reminding me of my late nights up watching models runs and tracking tropical cyclones during the hurricane season lol...

This is why I love weather and studying it for events like this one coming up in 72 hours from now.

[northjaxpro]

Well, looking at the most recent runs of GEM, NAM, CMC and GFS, this is shaping up to be a potential memorable winter event for the extreme Deep South. Defnitely subject to change of course,but it definitel appears for the moment that the immedate Gulf Coastal areas inland for about 100 miles or so from SE TX eastward to the SE US coast could be looking at some potentially impressive snow accumulations. It is looking more evident now observing the model runs that the Baja California shortwave will eject out east , which should energize the southern stream sufficiently to aid the isentrohic proessacross the GOM and points along the coast and about 100 miles or so inland.

Tomorrow's model runs I feel folks will really be crucial as to giving us a pretty good blueprint on how this event will shake down. But, no doubt we will have some good fewdays ahead monitoring this event. Heck this is reminding me of my late nights up watching models runs and tracking tropical cyclones during the hurricane season lol...

This is why I love weather and studying it for events like this one coming up in 72 hours from now.

[Ntxw]

0z runs have reversed the south trend probably thanks to the upper low ejecting east away from the Baja area. It's providing more lift and helping throw moisture back into the cold.

I haven't followed the trends, I'm looking at the 5h synoptic pattern and it keeps pressing the cold air mass. If the storm was in front of the northern stream instead of lagging behind there would be ample moisture and cold undercutting it and I'd feel much better about calling a significant event. But because the system is left behind and is not in sync with the northern shortwave it's a big risk that the cold, dry air will shunt everything into the gulf. It'll be a tough forecast for the NWS. I still believe the northern gulf could see snow but it's a high risk, high reward or bust.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Can you post that map showing Louisiana?

And before that we have ice/sleet falling. And I'm right in the center of that dark shaded area in se LA

And ntxw, I'm leaning towards a huge reward

[Ntxw]

And before that we have ice/sleet falling. And I'm right in the center of that dark shaded area in se LA

And ntxw, I'm leaning towards a huge reward

How about we call for a stronger shortwave and have a Christmas 04 redux in the gulf coast?

[northjaxpro]

Ntxw, what's your thought about the Baja shortwave? Looking at the recent GEM run, that Baja shortwave energy really looks rather potent. This feature iwill help tell the tale the next few days.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, what's your thought about the Baja shortwave? Looking at the recent GEM run, that Baja shortwave energy really looks rather potent. This feature iwill help tell the tale the next few days.

Most of us think it's the baja low but if you look closely at the models, it's not the main driver. The instigator is the northern stream energy coming down the mid south. That's why you see the precipitation on all the models elongate from the coast of Texas all the way to the north Atlantic. In the gulf coast the cold air is able to undercut the "line" of thunderstorms/rain ahead of the front just in time caused by the vorticity to induce back end snow at the same time the baja low is being ingested into the flow since both systems do not phase. Hence the risk, what the baja low does do is give a little juice to the line of precip so heavier precip over areas that are in the zone between just cold enough air but not too cold and moist flow.



It's a bit different than the last system which had warm moist air lift up and over the cold dome and generating precip into the cold air.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, Ntxw good reasoning above. You know this set up sure looks similar to the December 22-23, 1989 event along the ulf Coast east across my area up to the carolinas. I have to find the map to that event. I think an even stronger Arctic High came down into the lower 48 back then than this current upcoming event if my memory serves me correct.

[Big_Stevo29]

How will this next winter system impact me in Biloxi? I saw no snow from the last system a few days ago; lots of frozen rain. Are my chances out of this next system better at seeing snow here? I know these models change daily. I would like to see some snow; 1-2" if it would stick.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS.



06z NAM.