2014 WPAC Season

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS developing a TD/weak TS crossing Northern Mindanao then moving west on the Lunar New Year.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

My late-January numbers are 24/15/7.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS showing typhoon strength landfall at Mindanao.

[euro6208]

LPA has developed southwest of guam that has some model support. Bringing heavy rains right now over guam.

Invest later today?

[euro6208]

This system has a huge moisture envelope but rapidly weakening convection. Let's see what DMAX will bring.

[dexterlabio]

It actually has model support, remaining a weak low pressure system. Too much dry air...

[euro6208]

It actually has model support, remaining a weak low pressure system. Too much dry air...

Very disorganized but models develops this and take a weak storm barreling to the PI.

[euro6208]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=76&t=116143



Now Invest 92W...

[euro6208]

http://www.guampdn.com/article/20140130/NEWS01/140130001/WEATHER-UPDATE-Record-rainfall-month-possible-rainfall-continues?odyssey=mod|breaking|text|Frontpage



WEATHER UPDATE: Record rainfall for the month possible if rainfall continues

The island received 4.71 inches of rain at the airport which blew away the previous record for that date of 1.95 inches in 1965.

The wettest January since the late 1940s was in 1976 with 18.09 inches of rainfall.

Interesting. All this in relation to our current disturbance that might develop down the road. Interesting start to the New Year!

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRNWP2013Verification.pdf


Summary of 2013 NW Pacific Typhoon Season and Verification of Authors' Seasonal Forecasts



x 1-min sustained winds

z Not including Tropical Depressions

The 2013 NW Pacific typhoon season was a season of two halves. Activity was well below
average until mid-September and then well above average thereafter. The most significant
event of the 2013 NW Pacific typhoon season was typhoon Haiyan, an exceptionally powerful
and deadly tropical cyclone that caused devastation across a swathe of the Philippines. The
May and July forecasts performed well but the August forecast under-predicted activity.

Features of the 2013 NW Pacific Season
• Featured 27 tropical storms, 15 typhoons, 9 intense typhoons and a total ACE index of 268. Six
out of the last seven years have had an ACE index below the 1965-2012 climate norm of 295.
• The second half of the season was incredibly active compared to the first half. 78% of the ACE
index and seven out of the nine intense typhoons occurred in the eight-week period from 16th
September to the 11th November.
• Typhoon Haiyan was arguably the strongest tropical cyclone ever to make landfall in terms of
wind speed when it struck the Philippines with 1-minute sustained winds near 195 mph. Haiyan
killed over 6,000 people, destroyed over half a million homes and affected the livelihoods of more
than 4 million people.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRNWP2013Verification.pdf


Summary of 2013 NW Pacific Typhoon Season and Verification of Authors' Seasonal Forecasts



x 1-min sustained winds

z Not including Tropical Depressions

The 2013 NW Pacific typhoon season was a season of two halves. Activity was well below
average until mid-September and then well above average thereafter. The most significant
event of the 2013 NW Pacific typhoon season was typhoon Haiyan, an exceptionally powerful
and deadly tropical cyclone that caused devastation across a swathe of the Philippines. The
May and July forecasts performed well but the August forecast under-predicted activity.

Features of the 2013 NW Pacific Season
• Featured 27 tropical storms, 15 typhoons, 9 intense typhoons and a total ACE index of 268. Six
out of the last seven years have had an ACE index below the 1965-2012 climate norm of 295.
• The second half of the season was incredibly active compared to the first half. 78% of the ACE
index and seven out of the nine intense typhoons occurred in the eight-week period from 16th
September to the 11th November.
• Typhoon Haiyan was arguably the strongest tropical cyclone ever to make landfall in terms of
wind speed when it struck the Philippines with 1-minute sustained winds near 195 mph. Haiyan
killed over 6,000 people, destroyed over half a million homes and affected the livelihoods of more
than 4 million people.

You posted this on the wrong thread. Isn't this a 2013 report?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS on recurve scenario on a TS long-range.

[euro6208]

You posted this on the wrong thread. Isn't this a 2013 report?

Yes but wanted to post on this year's thread for continuity because of it's significance and possibly "forgotten" if posted in other old thread.

[euro6208]

We are currently in the slowest months of the season climatologically, February and soon March.

Will mother nature surprise us?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The next storm may be another Kajiki but may be better organized GFS is unusually consistent with this. [GFS unofficial]

[euro6208]

The calm before El Nino.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS develops 2 storms - one TS and the other - STY.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Mid-Feb Numbers: 27/17/8 due to an El Nino coming.

[dexterlabio]

There is a warm pool near 140E longitude that is expanding to the east. Could this be the reason of GFS showing an unusual uptick of TC activity this early? We'll see how things will go in the next few weeks. The MJO is expected to strengthen and shift to the WPAC within the next 2 weeks.