Texas Winter 2013-2014

[ravyrn]

12Z GFS has a light freeze across Houston the 27th-28th (and cold daytime highs) and 22F on the 1st of February. European ensembles much warmer, however. I'm still thinking that any significant cold would be delayed until at least the 2nd week of February.

Does this mean we can put you on the 2nd week Feb 1899 camp instead of last week Jan 1985 camp?

Kidding aside, thanks for your input. It is possible that models are rushing changes too fast and may be the case that the coldest air will wait for Feb but there is definitely changes afoot. We will likely see a slow step down process until then which really has already begun with these impeding cold fronts. Should be felt further east first. Then it will become a Texas to Florida ordeal.

If you have been looking, models today have officially decided to tank the WPO with the EPO

So with this next cold spell, how are we looking in terms of coldness for our 2013/2014 over all? Are we in line to leave this winter as the coldest winter since record keeping began?

[Ntxw]

So with this next cold spell, how are we looking in terms of coldness for our 2013/2014 over all? Are we in line to leave this winter as the coldest winter since record keeping began?

We are far from the coldest winter held by 77-78 across the board. As of today we are pretty close to 2009-2010 winter in terms of averages and that winter ended up as number 8 coldest on the list (using DFW as a meter stick). February was pretty chilly that year nothing extreme as there were no arctic outreaks but consistently cold and snowy. We would have to see something like that again to keep pace in terms of cold, and for a top 5 finish we will need an extreme outbreak something like 1983.

[TheProfessor]

So with this next cold spell, how are we looking in terms of coldness for our 2013/2014 over all? Are we in line to leave this winter as the coldest winter since record keeping began?

We are far from the coldest winter held by 77-78 across the board. As of today we are pretty close to 2009-2010 winter in terms of averages and that winter ended up as number 8 coldest on the list (using DFW as a meter stick). February was pretty chilly that year nothing extreme as there were no arctic outreaks but consistently cold and snowy. We would have to see something like that again to keep pace in terms of cold, and for a top 5 finish we will need an extreme outbreak something like 1983.

Could the next cold spell perhaps be that extreme outbreak?

[gpsnowman]

Good morning Texas weather crazies. It is nice to see things could be a changin'. Somthing to talk about anyway.

[wxman57]

So with this next cold spell, how are we looking in terms of coldness for our 2013/2014 over all? Are we in line to leave this winter as the coldest winter since record keeping began?

We are far from the coldest winter held by 77-78 across the board. As of today we are pretty close to 2009-2010 winter in terms of averages and that winter ended up as number 8 coldest on the list (using DFW as a meter stick). February was pretty chilly that year nothing extreme as there were no arctic outreaks but consistently cold and snowy. We would have to see something like that again to keep pace in terms of cold, and for a top 5 finish we will need an extreme outbreak something like 1983.

Could the next cold spell perhaps be that extreme outbreak?

Highly unlikely. With no cold air in western Canada, this should be a glancing blow from that mass of cold air over the Great Lakes. Not likely even close to breaking any records.

I don't remember the winter of '77-'78 being cold. I definitely remember the winter of '76-'77 being extremely cold. It snowed down to Miami that winter. The Mississippi was frozen quite far south. Ice even made it to New Orleans.

[Ntxw]

I don't remember the winter of '77-'78 being cold. I definitely remember the winter of '76-'77 being extremely cold. It snowed down to Miami that winter. The Mississippi was frozen quite far south. Ice even made it to New Orleans.

76-77's cold was centered more to the east than Texas. 77-78 is one of the top for Houston as well I believe.

I have a bone to pick with NOAA. Our tax dollars (quote orangeblood) are spent on this. They must work for wxman57 because for the past 4 months they have been wish-casting warmth (for Texas) when it occurs right in front of them otherwise. I understand the nature of long term forecasting is questionable, but to defy the results even in the near term is outrageous it's not just funny anymore. Their warm February outlook IMO at this time looks bleak.

[dhweather]

Yes - CPC has done a bad job this winter. We've had a handful of days above normal, most of December and January has been at or below normal. They continue to paint above normal temps, and it's likely not happening. At least they are consistent. lol

[Ntxw]

^Indeed, and I'm not just talking about winter as whole. If we torch the rest of the way (unlikely) they could be right but on a month to month basis since fall its been way off. At least the local NWS are underpaid for the life saving stuff they do when big weather happens. These guys are paid big salaries for that?!

[Snowman67]

I don't remember the winter of '77-'78 being cold. I definitely remember the winter of '76-'77 being extremely cold. It snowed down to Miami that winter. The Mississippi was frozen quite far south. Ice even made it to New Orleans.

76-77's cold was centered more to the east than Texas. 77-78 is one of the top for Houston as well I believe.

I have a bone to pick with NOAA. Our tax dollars (quote orangeblood) are spent on this. They must work for wxman57 because for the past 4 months they have been wish-casting warmth (for Texas) when it occurs right in front of them otherwise. I understand the nature of long term forecasting is questionable, but to defy the results even in the near term is outrageous it's not just funny anymore. Their warm February outlook IMO at this time looks bleak.

http://i41.tinypic.com/2ni78rp.gif

I think Al Gore secretly replaced the originals

[somethingfunny]

A SKYWARN training session will be held Saturday from 830 AM to 430 PM in Frisco (Collin County) at Collin College Preston Ridge Campus, Room C105. This class is free, open to everyone, and there is no registration or sign up necessary. The Basic course will be in the morning, the Advanced course in the afternoon. Spotting and reporting, identifying cloud and storm features, safety rules, and information sharing and planning will all be discussed during the 2 hour presentation. Come join us. We would love to see you there.

I highly recommend going to these, they're interesting and fun and filled with weather geeks like us (and you don't have to be there for the whole thing)

[TheProfessor]

I don't remember the winter of '77-'78 being cold. I definitely remember the winter of '76-'77 being extremely cold. It snowed down to Miami that winter. The Mississippi was frozen quite far south. Ice even made it to New Orleans.

76-77's cold was centered more to the east than Texas. 77-78 is one of the top for Houston as well I believe.

I have a bone to pick with NOAA. Our tax dollars (quote orangeblood) are spent on this. They must work for wxman57 because for the past 4 months they have been wish-casting warmth (for Texas) when it occurs right in front of them otherwise. I understand the nature of long term forecasting is questionable, but to defy the results even in the near term is outrageous it's not just funny anymore. Their warm February outlook IMO at this time looks bleak.

http://i41.tinypic.com/2ni78rp.gif

I think Al Gore secretly replaced the originals

That or they decided to use the same models they used to predict hurricane season.

[Portastorm]

Well, I gotta admit that the GFS ensembles (0z, 6z) don't look all that impressive for the late month-early February period. I just took a quick look at the temp anomalies and nothing else, so I don't know what's going on with the 500mb flow and what possibly changed from yesterday. But they show the usual ... a cold deep trough over the eastern third of the US and mild to warm conditions west of there.

Haven't seen the Euro either.

Point being since I always get accused of being a cold weather hype man ... I think there's some reason for "pause" before we start popping corks about a glorious return to winter weather for Texas. Who knows, maybe wxman57 is right on in suggesting any "fun" won't happen until February. If at all.

[Portastorm]

A SKYWARN training session will be held Saturday from 830 AM to 430 PM in Frisco (Collin County) at Collin College Preston Ridge Campus, Room C105. This class is free, open to everyone, and there is no registration or sign up necessary. The Basic course will be in the morning, the Advanced course in the afternoon. Spotting and reporting, identifying cloud and storm features, safety rules, and information sharing and planning will all be discussed during the 2 hour presentation. Come join us. We would love to see you there.

I highly recommend going to these, they're interesting and fun and filled with weather geeks like us (and you don't have to be there for the whole thing)

We have a link for this ... please post here:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=116068

[Ntxw]

The indexes still looks status quo on the models from previous runs, off the charts -EPO, -NAO, Very -AO, -WPO. This all equates to a -WSI (wxman57 satisfaction index) and a +PWC

[dhweather]

^Indeed, and I'm not just talking about winter as whole. If we torch the rest of the way (unlikely) they could be right but on a month to month basis since fall its been way off. At least the local NWS are underpaid for the life saving stuff they do when big weather happens. These guys are paid big salaries for that?!

I'll defend the local guys for being conservative - they have to be as the general public counts on them. Now the CPC is a completely different story, these guys should be looking at teleconnections among other things. I'm just not seeing anything that points to significantly warmer weather.

[Portastorm]

The indexes still looks status quo on the models from previous runs, off the charts -EPO, -NAO, Very -AO, -WPO. This all equates to a -WSI (wxman57 satisfaction index) and a +PWC

Agreed. The teleconnection indices continue to look promising!

I was a little taken aback from the lack of support from the overnight GFS ensembles in terms of a retrograding pattern late month. Then again, one perusal of the individual ensemble members of the GFS shows just what we saw yesterday: it's all over the place.

[Comanche]

This all equates to a -WSI (wxman57 satisfaction index) and a +PWC

OMG that is an instant classic. New indices to track now, who will keep up with them?

[TheProfessor]

The indexes still looks status quo on the models from previous runs, off the charts -EPO, -NAO, Very -AO, -WPO. This all equates to a -WSI (wxman57 satisfaction index) and a +PWC

Agreed. The teleconnection indices continue to look promising!

I was a little taken aback from the lack of support from the overnight GFS ensembles in terms of a retrograding pattern late month. Then again, one perusal of the individual ensemble members of the GFS shows just what we saw yesterday: it's all over the place.

Isn't this about the time models start to lose the cold for a few days? Kind of like what happened about a week and half out from the icemaggeddon event?

[Comanche]

anyone have a link to the gfs ensemble frame by frame run i can track? TIA

[orangeblood]

GFS keeps the same pattern, more or less, intact over the next two weeks while the Euro breaks the pacific jet through underneath the massive Block over the pole. Something has to give and if you want winter weather, root for the Euro.