Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

The 12z GFS operational run should get some tongues wagging ...

[Kludge]

JB tweeted some snow maps for late Jan / early Feb

[wxman57]

The 12z GFS operational run should get some tongues wagging ...

Yeah, saw it. One freeze in Houston to close out the month (28th). No precip. Dry cold front. Shows some low 30s and light precip for you, Portastorm. Nothing remotely close to record cold, however.

As for those snow maps above, isn't that the same group that's been forecasting well above-normal temps for most of the U.S. the past few months?

Made some meteograms for Houston.




And one for you, Portastorm:

[dhweather]

The Weather & Climate Summit is going on right now, and is being streamed over the internet.

Paul Kocin is on right now, former TWC Winter Weather Specialist.

http://www.stormcenter.com/wxcsummit/live.html

[Portastorm]

Thanks for the meteograms, wxman57.

Noticed you referenced "no record cold" in your post. Please know that I am NOT suggesting nor have I suggested that we in south central Texas will see "record cold" ahead. I see a pattern change around 1/25 that definitely looks colder than what we have now. And I suspect the southern jet stream may get more active but that's all I'm willing to say at this point. I've been burned enough this winter season already so that I'm NOT going to get all giddy about 10-15 day forecasts.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:

Thanks for the meteograms, wxman57.

Noticed you referenced "no record cold" in your post. Please know that I am NOT suggesting nor have I suggested that we in south central Texas will see "record cold" ahead. I see a pattern change around 1/25 that definitely looks colder than what we have now. And I suspect the southern jet stream may get more active but that's all I'm willing to say at this point. I've been burned enough this winter season already so that I'm NOT going to get all giddy about 10-15 day forecasts.

BTW, I do agree with you on the CFSv2 maps and their forecasts. My experience with them this winter has been a bad one. They're usually wrong.

[Big O]

:uarrow:

Thanks for the meteograms, wxman57.

Noticed you referenced "no record cold" in your post. Please know that I am NOT suggesting nor have I suggested that we in south central Texas will see "record cold" ahead. I see a pattern change around 1/25 that definitely looks colder than what we have now. And I suspect the southern jet stream may get more active but that's all I'm willing to say at this point. I've been burned enough this winter season already so that I'm NOT going to get all giddy about 10-15 day forecasts.

Agreed. The progged pattern is one that will send cold air to the eastern 1/2 of the nation. I too am not suggesting "record cold" (at this time) as the surface temperature forecasts at this time range are not reliable. What is clear is the 500 mb flow pattern setting up what could be a McFarland Signature, similar to that in late November/early December and early January. I suspect surface temperature forecasts will drop the closer we get to the pattern change, provided the forecasted flow pattern materializes. Throw in the mix the possibility of subtropical jet energy traversing the state and things COULD get interesting. Remember, you don't need record cold temperatures for ice or snow. Just saying.

[wxman57]

Colder than a high in the 70s wouldn't take much...

[Rgv20]

:uarrow:

Thanks for the meteograms, wxman57.

Noticed you referenced "no record cold" in your post. Please know that I am NOT suggesting nor have I suggested that we in south central Texas will see "record cold" ahead. I see a pattern change around 1/25 that definitely looks colder than what we have now. And I suspect the southern jet stream may get more active but that's all I'm willing to say at this point. I've been burned enough this winter season already so that I'm NOT going to get all giddy about 10-15 day forecasts.

BTW, I do agree with you on the CFSv2 maps and their forecasts. My experience with them this winter has been a bad one. They're usually wrong.

In my experience last winter they were pretty bad too.

[dhweather]

This Weather & Climate Summit is interesting, Paul Kocin with a great presentation on winter precip, models busting, our dear friend the dry slot, etc.

[Tireman4]

:uarrow:

Thanks for the meteograms, wxman57.

Noticed you referenced "no record cold" in your post. Please know that I am NOT suggesting nor have I suggested that we in south central Texas will see "record cold" ahead. I see a pattern change around 1/25 that definitely looks colder than what we have now. And I suspect the southern jet stream may get more active but that's all I'm willing to say at this point. I've been burned enough this winter season already so that I'm NOT going to get all giddy about 10-15 day forecasts.

Agreed. The progged pattern is one that will send cold air to the eastern 1/2 of the nation. I too am not suggesting "record cold" (at this time) as the surface temperature forecasts at this time range are not reliable. What is clear is the 500 mb flow pattern setting up what could be a McFarland Signature, similar to that in late November/early December and early January. I suspect surface temperature forecasts will drop the closer we get to the pattern change, provided the forecasted flow pattern materializes. Throw in the mix the possibility of subtropical jet energy traversing the state and things COULD get interesting. Remember, you don't need record cold temperatures for ice or snow. Just saying.

Yeah, yeah yeah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[orangeblood]

yes, the bi-polar CFSv2 model is bogus IMO. 12Z GFS shows a wonderful illustration of a retrograding Ridge/Trough with pieces of Arctic Air breaking off and heading south becoming colder against the means. Each push of colder air is further west over time.

I've also noticed the Mean Ensembles on both models have performed quite well re: 6-10 & 11-15 temp forecasts with cold outbreaks so far this winter.

[TheProfessor]

Finally the models are starting to look better. My very slim of a chance dream is still alive. 24 inches of snow for all dfw!

[texas1836]

Finally the models are starting to look better. My very slim of a chance dream is still alive. 24 inches of snow for all dfw!

You're talking my language, 24 inches, come on. I guess we need the Pacific and Gulf to help out.

[dhweather]

Discussing snow in plains/mid south - "One thing I always wanted to say on the Weather Channel, 'RELAX, its all going to melt in a few days anyway'" - Paul Kocin

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro is so boring for the next 10 days. Man I want some rain!

[Big O]

12z European: At hour 126, ridge starts building over NW Canada and Alaska. By hour 222, incredibly strong high has developed over west coast, NW Canada, and Alaska; corresponding deep trough over Eastern and Central CONUS. By Day 10, high pressure system is even stronger; cross-polar flow well-established. Temperature anomalies impressive over eastern US and, to a lesser extent, central US.

At the surface, at hour 174 there is a 1046 high centered over the Rockies. By hour 240 a 1040 high appears to be strengthening and given the flow pattern should head due south-southeast. Keep in mind that this trough (jet stream configuration) is forecasted by the 0z ensemble members to retrograde westward. Let's see if the 12z Euro ensemble mean holds serve.

[wxman57]

Will have to wait for the EC ensembles. From the operational run, the projected 500mb heights across NE TX are nowhere near as low by hour 240 as for later this week. 850mb temps are well above 0C through hour 240 and the colder air is moving eastward away from NE TX by hour 240. And quite high 850mb temperature anomalies are showing up all over Alaska and western Canada by hour 240 (10C-20C above normal). The cold 850mb anomalies are over New England and the Mid Atlantic Coast by hour 240.

What I see in the 12Z Euro as far as Texas is concerned is a few more cold fronts producing freezes possibly down to Houston in the next 10-15 days. Not too much different from normal, however. Nothing to indicate an active southern stream storm track (for snow/frozen precip) yet.

[Texas Snowman]

JB tweeted some snow maps for late Jan / early Feb
http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/800x600q90/594/6bmw.jpg

Hmmmm. Wonder if the NFL will live to regret having the Super Bowl in NYC?

[Texas Snowman]

FWIW, here's my take on the last few pages:

Porta, Ntxw, etc: likely pattern change is coming, winter will likely come back to Texas in some form, keep your fingers crossed.

Heat Miser: Everyone above is wrong, nothing extreme or abnormal is in the cards, go ahead and cancel winter.