2014 U.S Severe Weather: Videos / Photos / Stats / Forecasts

[cycloneye]

Here we go with the 2014 U.S severe weather thread (Like a mother thread) to allow the peeps to keep track of how the 2014 severe weather season in the U.S is doing in terms of activity. Of course,the members can post as we always do in this forum individual threads of specific dates of upcomming severe weather events. In this thread, the members can discuss all about how the season is doing in terms of the stats.Also videos and photos of 2014 tornadoes and the aftermath damage will be posted and the forecasts for the next severe weather events will be posted as well. Let's see when the severe activity starts to pick up this year and let's see if it will be an active season or not.

Below is the Wikipedia information about all related to the 2014 U.S Severe Weather Season and the graphics that update with every new information that SPC releases.

2014 U.S Severe Weather Wikipedia Information

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/mo ... mmary.html

[cycloneye]

Here are the past 4 severe seasons to compare how the activity was in those years. How the members see this season unfolding?

2010




2011




2012




2013

[CrazyC83]

Nearly impossible to predict 2014! I'm thinking more active than 2012 and 2013 but still below average.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Predicting how a tornado season will turn out is in all actuality impossible right now, because there is no clear signal we can use. While El Niños have been known to enhance tornado activity, two of the largest four tornado outbreaks occurred when the Pacific was in a La Niña state. We'll just have to see how things turn out.

Things are quiet on the horizon for the time being. I suspect, maybe, possibly, we might have something to watch the latter end of this month in conjunction with previous years (January 22-23, 2012; January 29-30, 2013).

[EF-5bigj]

I do not know what this season will bring I do think it will be more active then 2013. But that is just speculation lol hopefully no violent outbreaks

[cycloneye]

Maybe some severe activity for the second weekend of 2014?

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CST WED JAN 08 2014

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A VERY PROGRESSIVE/INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
EXIST OVER THE CONUS FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...AN UPPER
TROUGH/STRENGTHENING POLAR JET ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE AN EASTWARD
TRANSITION FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO MO RIVER
VALLEY/ARKLATEX BY EARLY SATURDAY. PRIMARY ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MO VALLEY/UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.

...EAST/SOUTHEAST TX TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...INLAND
CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY ABATE INTO FRIDAY
WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO PREVALENT
SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/MO VALLEY...WITH THE WARM SECTOR GRADUALLY
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY/EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EAST/SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA/SOUTHERN MS.

GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY RELATES TO THE EXACT
DEGREE/QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN FRIDAY ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST TX
AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTATIONS OF
INLAND PRECIPITATION...THIS HAS ASSOCIATED RAMIFICATIONS ON
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN MODEST REGARDLESS /500 J
PER KG MLCAPE OR LESS/. WHILE LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR NEAR-SURFACE BASED TSTMS AMID WEAK
BUOYANCY...STRONGER/POTENTIALLY SEVERE SURFACE BASED STORMS WOULD BE
MORE CERTAIN WITH MIDDLE 60S F DEWPOINTS...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
RELEGATED TO NEAR-COASTAL AREAS /ROUGHLY WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO/. IF/WHERE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION DOES OCCUR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO RISK GIVEN THE
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING AND MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LOW-LEVEL
SRH.

..GUYER.. 01/08/2014

[cycloneye]

As you can see on the first post graphics,the first severe weather reports of 2014 occurred in a severe event on the 11th.

[Ntxw]

In terms of numbers the past two years have been quite low. I didn't think we would outdo 2012 but 2013 did, fascinating both seasons started fast but then faded (again not intensity just numbers.). No major tornado outbreaks looks imminent, we haven't seen many of those large jet streaks type storms this winter that typically feature such outbreaks as of yet.

[cycloneye]

Why there is a difference between Wikipedia that has until January 12th 4 tornadoes but SPC has none?

[Extratropical94]

I see 4 preliminary tornado reports on the January 11 storm reports map.
The monthly/annual total chart hasn't been updated since Jan 02.

[cycloneye]

2014 has begun very slow well below what 2013 had at this point and we know that was a below average season. Let's wait for the bitter cold weather to go away and allow things to warm to see how the 2014 severe season will look like down the road.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

January 2014 ended with 4 confirmed tornadoes, all EF0s confirmed on the 11th. No deaths and minimal damage.

From all current indications, February 2014 shouldn't feature many tornadoes. With a storm track through the Ohio River Valley given the -PNA pattern, a few bouts of strong to severe storms will be possible across the South...especially the LA-MS-AL area. However, limited instability and displaced forcing should be the recurring theme (like we're seeing Tuesday-Wednesday of this week). By the month of the end, a more zonal pattern should take hold, which isn't favorable for big events.

[cycloneye]

Unless ENSO sparks El Nino sometime later this year, it looks like this severe season may be another below average one in general with some big outbreaks in segments during the year. Let's see what mother nature has instored.

[EF-5bigj]

I have no idea what it will be like this year it maybe more active then we think.

[cycloneye]

Maybe some severe weather for SouthCentral Florida Penninsula.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF FL PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL/ERN CONUS...AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC REGIME ACROSS
W COAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY
FROM AR TO SE TX AND NERN MEX...AS WELL AS FROM ERN SD SSWWD
ACROSS-CENTRAL NEB AND WRN/CENTRAL KS. FASTER MOVEMENT OF TRAILING
PERTURBATION WILL RESULT IN ESSENTIALLY PHASED/STRONGER TROUGH
MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN CONUS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...THOUGH
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA MAY REMAIN DISTINCT. BY 12Z...500-MB
LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER SRN APPALACHIANS REGION WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS GA...ERN PORTIONS FL
PANHANDLE...ERN NERN GULF.

AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS INDICATED FRONTAL-WAVE LOW JUST OFF WRN FL
PANHANDLE COAST...AND COLD FRONT SWWD OVER CENTRAL/SWRN GULF. THIS
LOW SHOULD TRAVEL ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE THEN
OFFSHORE GA...AS ANOTHER CYCLONE DEEPENS FARTHER NE ALONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER ATLC. BY END OF PERIOD...ERN LOW SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANT INVOF NC OUTER BANKS..WITH COLD FRONT SSWWD ACROSS
ERN/SRN FL PENINSULA. AT 11Z TWO WARM FRONTS WERE DRAWN--
1. SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY DEMARCATING COLDEST CONTINENTAL AIR FROM PARTLY
MODIFIED C.P. TRAJECTORIES THAT FOLLOWED PRIOR FROPA. THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM LOW ESEWD NEAR BUOY 42036...BECOMING WEAK COLD FRONT
FOLLOWED BY NLY/NELY FLOW OVER CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. OVERLAND PART
OF THIS FRONT IS DECELERATING...AS WINDS TO ITS N VEER TOWARD MORE
ELY COMPONENT WITH DEPARTURE OF WEAK ATLC LOW AND APCH OF
FRONTAL-WAVE SYSTEM.
2. MARINE FRONT DENOTING NRN EDGE OF MOST COMPLETELY MODIFIED
MARITIME AIR...EXTENDING SEWD FROM LOW ACROSS E-CENTRAL GULF THEN
EWD OVER PORTIONS KEYS/STRAITS. THIS BOUNDARY AND RELATED AIR MASS
MAY REACH PORTIONS WRN/SRN FL FROM LATE AFTN INTO EVENING...PRIOR TO
PASSAGE OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND AND COLD FRONT.

...FL...
SVR THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT GREATER AND BETTER-ORGANIZED THAN IN
PRIOR OUTLOOKS...WARRANTING UPGRADED PROBABILITIES. PRIMARY THREAT
IS DAMAGING GUSTS...BUT TORNADO POTENTIAL NOW APPEARS AT LEAST MRGL
IN NATURE OVER MUCH OF PENINSULA.

MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE WELL-ORGANIZED OVER NERN GULF FOR
MANY HOURS BEFORE MOVING ASHORE AND INTO STILL-MOISTENING AIR MASS
OVER FL PENINSULA...AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. MAIN UNCERTAINTY...AND
MOST LIMITING FACTOR FOR SVR RISK...REMAINS RATE OF PRECONVECTIVE
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY NE OF AFOREMENTIONED MARINE
FRONT. STILL...ONCE DAYTIME MIXING/DRYING EFFECTS OF INLAND
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE QUELLED BY COMBINATION OF MOIST ADVECTION AND
LOSS OF INSOLATION...NARROW WEDGE OF MID-UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS
ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS CENTRAL FL PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF MAIN TSTM
LINE. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS WOULD SUPPORT SFC-BASED
INFLOW...WITH MINIMALLY INHIBITED MLCAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE.
VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH TIME WILL MITIGATE GREATER VERTICAL
SHEAR...THOUGH SUPPORTIVE LOW-LEVEL SRH IS INDICATED FOR BOW/LEWP
FORMATION AND AT LEAST TRANSIENT SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION WITH ANY
SUSTAINED/DISCRETE TSTMS. VEERING SFC FLOW ALSO WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH PROXIMITY TO SRN/MARINE FRONT..AND MAY ADVECT RICHER SERN-GULF
MOISTURE INLAND.

AHEAD OF MAIN TSTM AREA...SEPARATE CLUSTER OR BAND OF CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP OVER ERN GULF AND OFFSHORE SWRN FL/KEYS...MOVING NEWD TO EWD
OVER CENTRAL/S FL. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR EACH ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT FROM S-CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH
KEYS/STRAITS...SOME ACTIVITY THAT FAR S MAY PRODUCE GUSTS APCHG SVR
LIMITS.

FARTHER N ACROSS NRN PENINSULA AND COASTAL BEND REGION...SUBSTANTIAL
SFC DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LESS PROBABLE...SO SVR NUMBERS ARE KEPT
MRGL THERE.

[cycloneye]

There were a few severe weather reports (Mainly wind reports) on the Febuary 12 event in Florida Penninsula.

[cycloneye]

It looks like severe weather may be present in the next few days.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 6 min
This storm track would favor severe weather chances as warm Gulf air surges north. Brief winter retreat next week.

[cycloneye]

Some severe weather is expected for the 19th and 20th but mainly damaging winds. Isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ROUGHLY THE MS VALLEY
REGION EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...AND FROM SRN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES SWD TO THE GULF COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPANDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH TIME...WITH THE ENTIRE U.S. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
EXPANSION OF LONG-WAVE TROUGHING WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE INTERACTION
OF TWO SMALLER-SCALE TROUGHS -- ONE ADVANCING EWD AND THEN NEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WHILE A SECOND DIGS SEWD OUT OF WRN CANADA
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
INITIAL/CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH -- A VERY INTENSE FEATURE PROGGED TO
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE MID AND UPPER MS/OH
VALLEYS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD -- WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FEATURE OF INTEREST WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE CONVECTION THIS PERIOD.

AS THIS SYSTEM ADVANCES/STRENGTHENS...A SURFACE LOW -- PROGGED
INITIALLY TO LIE INVOF THE KS/MO BORDER AREA -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
RAPIDLY NNEWD AND DEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY WITH TIME...REACHING THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS A SUB-980 MB CYCLONE BY MIDNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG/TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY
LK MI SSWWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH/TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS INTO THE WRN
GULF COASTAL REGION BY SUNSET. THE FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE RACING
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/MID SOUTH/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
REGION OVERNIGHT...AND IS PROGGED TO LIE IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE FRONT
SHOULD DRIVE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF ORGANIZED/FAST-MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER -- MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS -- TO AN AREA FROM ROUGHLY
THE MS VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS.

...IL/ERN MO/ERN AR/LA EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...
CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS/MO AND EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...WITHIN A ZONE
OF WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW. BY MID
AFTERNOON...SURFACE COLD-FRONTAL ADVANCE INTO A
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR SHOULD YIELD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE ZONE OF STRONG/LINEAR LOW-LEVEL ASCENT...WITH
STORMS THEN EXPANDING BOTH NE AND SW ALONG THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY.
GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM
DRIVING FAST LINE MOTION...RISK FOR NUMEROUS DAMAGING GUSTS IS
APPARENT. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
LINE...WHILE ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR -- MAINLY NEAR
AND S OF THE OH VALLEY WHERE A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...WITH ACCOMPANYING SEVERE RISK
EXTENDING EWD TO THE CENTRAL AND SERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 02/18/2014

[brunota2003]

Looks like we might need a thread split for the Ohio Valley/SEUS severe weather outbreak. Day 2 update should be interesting.

[EF-5bigj]

Well it's really windy and humid were I'm at.