SIO: COLIN - Tropical Cyclone 08S

[jaguarjace]

10.1S 106.7E

[jaguarjace]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 1:33 pm WST on Monday 6 January 2014

Potential Cyclones:
There is a weak low near 9S 110E, about 450 km east northeast of Christmas
Island, and moving slowly west. It may move into the region (south of 10S) but
is not expected to develop during Tuesday and Wednesday. It is likely to move
west of 90E sometime Thursday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday: Very Low
Wednesday: Very Low
Thursday: Low

[jaguarjace]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 11:00 am WST on Tuesday 7 January 2014

Potential Cyclones:
There is a low near 11.0S 106.5E, about 100 km southeast of Christmas Island,
and moving west at about 25 kilometres per hour. While conditions are not
favourable for development, it may still develop into a tropical cyclone over
the next few days. It is forecast to continue moving west and should be west of
90E and out of the region by Friday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday: Low
Thursday: Moderate
Friday: Low

[jaguarjace]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1S
106.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 104.8E, APPROXIMATELY 318 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH IMPROVING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 070101Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS THE IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION AS WELL AS A CUSP
FEATURE. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNDER LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO FAVORABLE AT GREATER THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S
104.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 102.5E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM
SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
IMPROVING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 071515Z METOP-S MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS THE IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION AS WELL AS A CUSP FEATURE. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
UNDER LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH STRONG
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT
GREATER THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[stormkite]

WTXS21 PGTW 082200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.6S 94.2E TO 12.2S 85.0E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 082130Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 93.3E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2S
94.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 081731Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED LLCC
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 081455Z
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNDER LOW
TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT GREATER THAN
28 DEGREES CELSIUS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092200Z.//
NNNN

[Grifforzer]

not forming in the TCWC Perth area of responsibility.

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Thursday 9 January 2014
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 12 January 2014.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
There is a low near 90E, moving rapidly west, and should be out of the region by this evening.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday Very Low
Saturday Very Low
Sunday Very Low

[stormkite]

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 86.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 86.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.0S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.8S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.5S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.6S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.3S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.3S 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 26.6S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 85.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 866 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
091614Z METOP-A 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A
091615Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 35 TO 40
KNOT WINDS IN THE CORE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A TIGHT GROUPING OF AGENCY POSITION FIXES WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH
IS BEING OFFSET BY THE SYSTEM'S EASTERLY MOTION AND INCREASING
OUTFLOW. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. BY
TAU 24, THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN,
ALLOWING TC 08S TO TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM NEAR TAU 36, WHICH WILL ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALLOWING FOR
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL FURTHER SUPPORT A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 96. THE STR WILL REORIENT IN THE
LATER TAUS AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, CAUSING TC 08S
TO TRACK SOUTHWARD. DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND FAVORS GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 100900Z AND 102100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 082151Z JAN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 082200).//
NNNN

[hurricanes1234]

Wow! JTWC is forecasting a peak of 110 knots!

WTXS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 86.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 86.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.0S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.8S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.5S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.6S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.3S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.3S 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 26.6S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 85.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 866 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
091614Z METOP-A 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A
091615Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 35 TO 40
KNOT WINDS IN THE CORE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A TIGHT GROUPING OF AGENCY POSITION FIXES WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH
IS BEING OFFSET BY THE SYSTEM'S EASTERLY MOTION AND INCREASING
OUTFLOW. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. BY
TAU 24, THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN,
ALLOWING TC 08S TO TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM NEAR TAU 36, WHICH WILL ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALLOWING FOR
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL FURTHER SUPPORT A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 96. THE STR WILL REORIENT IN THE
LATER TAUS AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, CAUSING TC 08S
TO TRACK SOUTHWARD. DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND FAVORS GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 100900Z AND 102100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 082151Z JAN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 082200).//
NNNN

[Grifforzer]

Mauritius Meteorological Services named 08S Colin. Looks like an estimate 90 knots (1 min) peak in this advisory

WTIO30 FMEE 100138
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/6/20132014
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (COLIN)
2.A POSITION 2014/01/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3 S / 84.8 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 17 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

12H: 2014/01/10 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 82.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2014/01/11 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 80.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2014/01/11 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2014/01/12 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2014/01/12 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 77.1 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2014/01/13 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

[stormkite]

Possibly another cat 5 brewing thinking this will easily exceed 110 knots expectations.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[hurricanes1234]

Possibly another cat 5 brewing thinking this will easily exceed 110 knots expectations.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Southern Hemisphere is certainly on a roll this season, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a strong storm either. I'm thinking a peak of between 100 and 115 knots.

The preceding was not an official forecast.

[euro6208]

Going to intensity alot but peak intensity lowered...

REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 83.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 737 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
SHOWS CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO PERSIST OVER A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A DEEP BAND OF
CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LLCC, BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY THE
SYSTEM'S EASTERLY MOTION AND INCREASING OUTFLOW. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 24, THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING TC 08S TO TURN
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM NEAR TAU 36, WHICH
WILL ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALLOWING FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE
COMBINED EFFECTS OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL FURTHER SUPPORT A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75
KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE STR WILL REORIENT IN THE LATER TAUS AS THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, CAUSING TC 08S TO TRACK SOUTHWARD.
DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS AND FAVORS GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND
110900Z.//
NNNN

[stormkite]

20140111 0530 -16.1 -80.5 T4.5/4.5 08S COLIN
Looking like a cyclone now.

[mrbagyo]

Dvorak Constraints Broken

TXXS29 KNES 111147
TCSSIO

A. 08S (COLIN)

B. 11/1130Z

C. 16.6S

D. 79.7E

E. ONE/MET-7

F. T5.5/5.5/D3.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED SO RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS
THAT THE MET IS UNREPRESENTATIVE AT 4.0. PT IS 4.5. OW EYE IS EMBEDDED
IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY W RESULTING IN A DT OF 5.5 AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED
AS AN EADJ. THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT CALCULATED ONCE EACH HOUR ENDING AT
1130Z WAS 5.7 AND JUSTIFIES BREAKING DVORAK CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[hurricanes1234]

You've got to be kidding me. Just absolutely beyond words.

08S COLIN 140111 1800 17.1S 79.2E SHEM 115 937

[stormkite]

TPXS10 PGTW 112125

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN)

B. 11/2030Z

C. 17.3S

D. 79.1E

E. ONE/MET7

F. T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.0. ME TYIELDS A 4.5 AND PT YIELDS A 6.0. DBO DT. BROKE
CONSTRAINTS DUE TO SYSTEMS RAPID DEVELOPMENT (PT W/I 0.5 OF
MET.)

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
11/1619Z 17.0S 79.3E TRMM
11/1627Z 17.0S 79.3E MMHS
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... 814fix.txt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Forecast Track
Time of Latest Forecast: 201401111800

0 -17.1 79.2 115
12 -18.3 77.6 130
24 -19.9 75.9 120
36 -21.5 74.5 105
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=SH082014

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[hurricanes1234]

With hostile conditions coming in twelve hours or less, further intensification could be less of a possibility. Why did it stop strengthening in the first place?

08S COLIN 140112 0000 17.7S 78.7E SHEM 115 937

Personal opinion only and not an official forecast.

[stormkite]

Cimss JTWC still forecasting 130knts in there track. As to stop intensifying have no idea myself. Maybe a member with
lots of experience or Pro-met can explain reasons.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[euro6208]

08S COLIN 140112 0000 17.7S 78.7E SHEM 115 937



REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 78.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (COLIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 717 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL TIGHTLY WRAPPED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING INTO A 12-NM PINHOLE EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FIX WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
115 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS OFFSET BY STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW
EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO CREST
THE RIDGE AROUND TAU 48 BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BUT COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
THEREAFTER ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. A TRANSITORY
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM NEAR TAU
48, WEAKENING THE STR AND ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED RECURVATURE.
DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH SLIGHT BIAS TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.//
//
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