Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

You will pay the fiddler before long my Heat Miser friend.

I've been paying the fiddler since November. Odds are we've now seen our coldest temps of this winter. Just 52 days until March! We're gaining about 47 seconds per day in sunshine now. By the end of January we gain nearly 1.5 minutes of warm sunshine per day.

[gboudx]

You will pay the fiddler before long my Heat Miser friend.

Meh, I'm not so sure anymore. This progressive flow is a commonality this winter. Hard to ignore its consistency. If we could only line up some southern stream disturbances with the strong, yet brief Arctic blasts.

You're giving up too quickly. He put grease on Greenland, so you need to lead an expedition to put cat litter on that grease. How bad do you want snow Porta?

[perk]

You will pay the fiddler before long my Heat Miser friend.

Meh, I'm not so sure anymore. This progressive flow is a commonality this winter. Hard to ignore its consistency. If we could only line up some southern stream disturbances with the strong, yet brief Arctic blasts.

Portastorm after reading the post above I'm getting a little worried that heat miser is wearing you down.

[Stormcenter]

It's only January 7.......last year we had temps iin the 50's through early May if i recall correctly. I'm sorry but lots of this still left this season.

You will pay the fiddler before long my Heat Miser friend.

I've been paying the fiddler since November. Odds are we've now seen our coldest temps of this winter. Just 52 days until March! We're gaining about 47 seconds per day in sunshine now. By the end of January we gain nearly 1.5 minutes of warm sunshine per day.

[Texas Snowman]

Jeepers Porta! It is only January 7th. Christmas was just two weeks ago. Me thinks you have been spending too much time with Lotd Vader!

[perk]

Jeepers Porta! It is only January 7th. Christmas was just two weeks ago. Me thinks you have been spending too much time with Lotd Vader!

Port's in need of a Grey Goose drip stat.

[Tireman4]

Good news! Beyond day 10 on the Euro ensembles, the vortex shifts straight east across northern Hudson Bay and doesn't drive all the cold air south toward Texas! That grease I applied to Greenland to prevent any blocking did the trick. Progressive pattern continues.

I thought you said not to trust the long range ensembles...what gives...?

[Tireman4]

You will pay the fiddler before long my Heat Miser friend.

Meh, I'm not so sure anymore. This progressive flow is a commonality this winter. Hard to ignore its consistency. If we could only line up some southern stream disturbances with the strong, yet brief Arctic blasts.

Hey man, snap out of it. Come one. Fight the good fight. You gave into the dark side last year. Come back to us. Come back to the light. Do not dance with the Dark Lord of Summer. He will only leave you on the floor alone!!!

[gpsnowman]

Oh no. This happened last year I believe. Don't be seduced by the dark side Porta. Most of winter is yet to come. It will happen! Snow for all!

[dhweather]

Joe B says in Twitter:

ECMWF control run , day 15... talk amongst yourselves

[Texas Snowman]

Good news! Beyond day 10 on the Euro ensembles, the vortex shifts straight east across northern Hudson Bay and doesn't drive all the cold air south toward Texas! That grease I applied to Greenland to prevent any blocking did the trick. Progressive pattern continues.

I thought you said not to trust the long range ensembles...what gives...?

[orangeblood]

Western North American Ridge is starting to dominate this pattern, need the forecasted PNA to crash. Cold air is there but with the sub-tropical jet almost non-existent most of the energy is too far north.

[aggiecutter]

Winter Weather Advisory for the Texarkana area:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
246 PM CST TUE JAN 7 2014

...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON
ON WEDNESDAY...

ARZ050-051-059-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108-109-111-112-080500-
/O.NEW.KSHV.WW.Y.0001.140108T0900Z-140108T1800Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-
TITUS-MORRIS-CASS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...
IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...TEXARKANA...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...
DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA
246 PM CST TUE JAN 7 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM
TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY.

* EVENT...PRECIPITATION FALLING THROUGH A FREEZING AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW FOR FREEZING RAIN CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM SHORTLY BEFORE
DAYBREAK TO AROUND MID-MORNING.

* ICE ACCUMULATION...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...
WITH ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED OBJECTS SUCH AS BRIDGES...ROADS...
OVERPASSES...AND TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

[Ntxw]

I like the European, all that cold air sitting over NA and even the GFS with it's Aleutian low. We're not going to see any storms this far out from it. The storms will come, this spike in the stratosphere looks legit we'll likely see a real dive in the AO and not a transitory dip, then that will probably mean better chances for storms to dig more from the polar jet. Of course help from the STJ is always preferable.

[Ntxw]

I don't like the look of the European (deterministic & ensembles) for past mid month. Another Polar vortex rotating southward west of Hudson Bay by the 17th. I'll enjoy the above-freezing temps up until then...

I suppose that since Joe Bastardi posted the 240hr EC 500mb chart for the general public on twitter that I can post the image here (from WeatherBELL).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BdZx9ulCcAAGomm.png

All speculation at this point, but would this position of the Polar Vortex send a more direct shot south vs the "swipe" we are currently enjoying?

I've heard a lot of this on the media and such so lets clarify some things. Yes the coldest air is associated with the vortex field, and yes slight direction of it can effect who gets coldest and what not. But the controlling mechanism (and the reason it is even going that much south at all) is the NW NA ridge or EPO(-). Strength and location of this ridge largely determines the downstream flow of cold. Early winter it was more in the vicinity of Alaska and dumped in the west and plains while the recent shot it was located along the west coast so a bit more east. So in short, yes the polar vortex is there but the real culprit is the Pacific. After the past 5 seasons, is there any doubt the East Pacific controls creation and delivery of cold?

Even in the long range (decade trends), it's well seen that +EPO will flood the country with Pacific air while -EPO sends us Alaska. Cold blasts here in Texas lines up with the EPO almost to a T. What you want to see is a -EPO and a -PNA<- this will dig major energy down the west and kick out in the plains. This is why in large part I've come to disagreement with so much focus on the NAO/Greenland block this is something that plays a bigger role for the eastern conus, we mostly have to look west.

[TheProfessor]

Hey wxman57, i'll let you have some warmth for a while, but in return for every day that reaches 57 degrees or more in North Texas we get 3 inches of snow added to the next arctic outbreak.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

ours lives at 72 degrees in the winter... 75 degrees in the summer.

C'mon be brave and knock three more degrees off that. I can guarantee you don't have the cool *cough* breeze that was coming though certain areas of this house.

So my brave and hardy Tireman4 what is yours set at????

Mine is set at 68 in the Winter and 78 in the Summer....

I knew you'd also be an upstanding citizen!

[srainhoutx]

Rain and storm chances increasing over the next couple of days. Gusty S winds have established across our Region as the Arctic High moves further to the E and a rather potent trough heads towards the Southern Plains. There is still some concern as to how much moisture can return, but dew points in the low to mid 60's and a favorable entrance of the strong southerly flow suggest some isolated strong to possibly severe storms may develop by mid day Friday into the evening hours. The SPC has outlined E/SE Texas into Louisiana for the potential of stronger surfaced based storms. A Pacific front should pass our Region by Sunday in a very progressive zonal flow where abundant Pacific moisture and fast moving storms systems become the theme for the next week or so. A strong upper low should cross Northern Mexico early next week ushering in cooler temps. The longer range ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to advertise a reloading pattern across Alaska and Western Canada where much below normal temperature increase and build before that pesky Polar Vortex drops S once again and perhaps sends much colder Arctic air well S into the Plains and into our Region just beyond mid January.


DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CST WED JAN 08 2014

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A VERY PROGRESSIVE/INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
EXIST OVER THE CONUS FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...AN UPPER
TROUGH/STRENGTHENING POLAR JET ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE AN EASTWARD
TRANSITION FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO MO RIVER
VALLEY/ARKLATEX BY EARLY SATURDAY. PRIMARY ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MO VALLEY/UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.

...EAST/SOUTHEAST TX TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...INLAND
CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY ABATE INTO FRIDAY
WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO PREVALENT
SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/MO VALLEY...WITH THE WARM SECTOR GRADUALLY
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY/EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EAST/SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA/SOUTHERN MS.

GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY RELATES TO THE EXACT
DEGREE/QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN FRIDAY ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST TX
AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTATIONS OF
INLAND PRECIPITATION...THIS HAS ASSOCIATED RAMIFICATIONS ON
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN MODEST REGARDLESS /500 J
PER KG MLCAPE OR LESS/. WHILE LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR NEAR-SURFACE BASED TSTMS AMID WEAK
BUOYANCY...STRONGER/POTENTIALLY SEVERE SURFACE BASED STORMS WOULD BE
MORE CERTAIN WITH MIDDLE 60S F DEWPOINTS...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
RELEGATED TO NEAR-COASTAL AREAS /ROUGHLY WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO/. IF/WHERE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION DOES OCCUR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO RISK GIVEN THE
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING AND MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LOW-LEVEL
SRH.

..GUYER.. 01/08/2014

[orangeblood]

unfortunately, according to both the GFS and Euro ensembles, the ridge axis is forecasted to align even further east across the western US (instead of along west coast) forcing any reloading of Arctic Air even further east. Pattern does not look favorable for wintry weather over the next two weeks and probably beyond, as it appears mild Pacific air will begin to flood North America

[Ntxw]

^I agree up to the 15th. EPO+ is zonal flow, even with +PNA the air is of Pacific Ocean origin and only the northeast and lakes is far enough for cold shots that are meaningful because of -AO/-NAO. But I do think the models will eventually adjust back to a -EPO regime in large part due to formation of a strong Aleutian low and of course the pesky hot waters. It's a reload pattern but at least a moist one with shortwaves galore.