Texas Winter 2013-2014

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im ready for the next blast. Lets try this again!

[weatherdude1108]

All of my pipes were fine. It was actually two degrees warmer this morning than yesterday morning at the same time, instead of the 2-4 degrees predicted colder. I think the clouds kept the radiational cooling in check, despite the fact that my dewpoints ranged from 6-11 degrees F at my house. I'm fine with that! Now I can uncover my Sagos and see how they did.

[TheProfessor]

If these cold blast continue to be bone dry, than I'm going to start looking forward torward spring and severe weather season.

[Portastorm]

Im ready for the next blast. Lets try this again!

The only "hope" I see on the horizon this morning is that the PNA is progged to go sharply positive and the AO is progged to go fairly significantly negative. Around mid month. Perhaps that'll provide us something. But the actual operational runs of the GFS and Euro show nothing to get excited about, outside of some rain, in the next 10 days.

[CaptinCrunch]

All of my pipes were fine. It was actually two degrees warmer this morning than yesterday morning at the same time, instead of the 2-4 degrees predicted colder. I think the clouds kept the radiational cooling in check, despite the fact that my dewpoints ranged from 6-11 degrees F at my house. I'm fine with that! Now I can uncover my Sagos and see how they did.

Yea, it was 13 yesterday morning at the house, this morning it was 17 with just patchy frost on the car, not even enough to run the defrost.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

That would be our OVERNIGHT temps (without A/C here) and with 90% humidity and NO A/C and it often stays that way for weeks!!! You fellows have your A/C's going so hard your glasses fog up when you go outside. Now I think a fair comparison would be for you folks to have 3 weeks of your current (with your thermostat turned down to 62/58 overnight!

[Rgv20]

Wow! My heater at the house is 71..

[TwisterFanatic]

I was negotiating with mother nature about sending some of this true cold down your way.

Monday High: 22
Monday Low: 1

Tuesday High: 13
Tuesday Low: 3


It's 32 right now, so I'm about to jump in the pool.

[gto67]

As a retired City Mgr who's city had its on electrical distribution system, winter temps cause a greater demand on the electrical grid because: heat pumps have to rely on heat strips for heat when the temps get to freezing and below (not enough heat in the air to heat fluid in the coils); on demand wind power is generally not available in the late night and early mornings due to no wind; most generation has steam to drive the turbines (except for combined cycle generators which the main generator is driven by a jet engine) and sub freezing temps cause nothing but trouble because the cooling of the steam; due to EPA regulation generation units are being taken out of service due to cost to comply; and generation capacity is just barely keeping ahead of demand due to population and industrial growth in Texas. Coal unit takes 10 years to build and a combined cycle unit takes 4-5 years to build (permitting is the what causes the delays).

ERCOT is intrastate grid and El Paso, Lubbock north, and parts of East Texas aren't part of ERCOT.

This is a very general explanation and there more factors that I could point out (ie: Nodel System).

Great blog site and this site helped out as a City Mgr. Keep up the good work.

[wxman57]

I don't like the look of the European (deterministic & ensembles) for past mid month. Another Polar vortex rotating southward west of Hudson Bay by the 17th. I'll enjoy the above-freezing temps up until then...

I suppose that since Joe Bastardi posted the 240hr EC 500mb chart for the general public on twitter that I can post the image here (from WeatherBELL).

[Texas Snowman]

Joe B: "@BigJoeBastardi: 5 kt temps brutally cold yet again after the thaw. the hounds of winter howl again http://t.co/4YIeNd2Z0V"

m.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I don't like the look of the European (deterministic & ensembles) for past mid month. Another Polar vortex rotating southward west of Hudson Bay by the 17th. I'll enjoy the above-freezing temps up until then...

I suppose that since Joe Bastardi posted the 240hr EC 500mb chart for the general public on twitter that I can post the image here (from WeatherBELL).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BdZx9ulCcAAGomm.png

All speculation at this point, but would this position of the Polar Vortex send a more direct shot south vs the "swipe" we are currently enjoying?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

What is the strength of the HP's around that time? The path of the 500 MB looks to be a bit more brutal for us vs based towards east coast with the last front.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I don't like the look of the European (deterministic & ensembles) for past mid month. Another Polar vortex rotating southward west of Hudson Bay by the 17th. I'll enjoy the above-freezing temps up until then...

I suppose that since Joe Bastardi posted the 240hr EC 500mb chart for the general public on twitter that I can post the image here (from WeatherBELL).

[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bd Zx9ulCcAAGomm.png[/img]

All speculation at this point, but would this position of the Polar Vortex send a more direct shot south vs the "swipe" we are currently enjoying?

I think so, that bad boy would be west a bit it looks, right down the spine, how we want it. Siberian source as well it looks. Someone just posted -70 temps in siberia right now too

[wxman57]

What is the strength of the HP's around that time? The path of the 500 MB looks to be a bit more brutal for us vs based towards east coast with the last front.

1040mb in western Canada and the 1046mb NE of Alaska. It's still in the development stages at day 10, however.

[ravyrn]

[wxman57]

Good news! Beyond day 10 on the Euro ensembles, the vortex shifts straight east across northern Hudson Bay and doesn't drive all the cold air south toward Texas! That grease I applied to Greenland to prevent any blocking did the trick. Progressive pattern continues.

[Texas Snowman]

You will pay the fiddler before long my Heat Miser friend.

[Portastorm]

You will pay the fiddler before long my Heat Miser friend.

Meh, I'm not so sure anymore. This progressive flow is a commonality this winter. Hard to ignore its consistency. If we could only line up some southern stream disturbances with the strong, yet brief Arctic blasts.

[weatherdude1108]

Interesting EWX blurb regarding potential "evaporative cooling" tonight. That would make sense given moisture falling into the dry column of air. Could potentially be interesting, but just a blurb at this point.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
313 PM CST TUE JAN 7 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ALREADY SURGING BACK NNEWD THIS AFTERNOON AS
INDICATED BY THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK SPREADING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT
AS CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING VERY MUCH. HOWEVER
WITH THE CHANCE OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...EVAPORATIVE
COOLING WILL SEND TEMPERATURES MUCH LOWER. ALREADY SEEING A TIGHT
DEW POINT GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST...SO ADVECTION FOG COULD ALSO
DEVELOP WITH THE RISING DEW POINTS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES.
A DEVELOPING DREARY DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN THE MORNING...AND CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE TRICKY WITH
THE LIGHT DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD FROM
THE COAST. EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES TO THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE FAR NE
AND HILL COUNTRY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO WEST CENTRAL
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND APPROACH THE HILL COUNTRY BY MORNING. LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WILL REDEVELOP OR PERSIST
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MUCH WARMER
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.