Portastorm wrote:I'm going to respectfully disagree. I think the Greenland block is pretty darn important in terms of "gumming up the works" and shutting down a progressive flow (like we have now). Yes, it could potentially create a ridge-trough pattern over the CONUS which keeps us west of the cold, stuck trough and in milder air. But that NE coast ridging you speak of can happen, ideally, when you have a Greenland block which retrogrades ... the mean trough position can be in place to continually dump cold air into Texas while keep an active jetstream/storm track in the vicinity. Don't forget it snowed in Amarillo this past spring (May 2013), courtesy of a Greenland block pattern.
Personally, I prefer a weakly positive PNA with negative AO/NAO. I think those setups end up great for us ... well,
most of us. Not including Heat Miser and his minions.
Yes the NAO does clog up the pattern and can dam up cold for us, but that's not a bet I'm willing to take. Preferably a west based -NAO that moves over the Hudson is preferable over just plain Greenland block. As mentioned the very -NAO funnels cold over to Europe and we lose it with leftover cold dumped to the east coast underneath the trough associated. The May snowfall in Amarillo can also be attributed to the very -EPO that brought anomalous cold not only in May in June and July as well. That was the anomalous feature more impressive than the -NAO which began with the Pacific warm waters appearing in March and we saw the record blocking.
It's pretty simple for Texas, if you want cold you need the -EPO this winter proved it, if you don't have it just will be stormy and mild. If you recall most of last winter was dominated by -AO/-NAO but +EPO. But I agree, all three negative like in 2009/10 is the best.
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