Texas Winter 2013-2014

[dhweather]

I'm envisioning a glancing blow of cold air with no little to no precip. Maybe the 12Z runs will offer some hope.

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile DFW registered another freeze, last one of the year and the important 24th milestone. With at least another 5 or 6 to start January, on pace for most since 2000.

[srainhoutx]

I'd keep an eye on the early to mid next week time frame. The 06Z GFS suggested some wintry mischief potential across a lot of Texas into Louisiana after the cold air arrives.

[dhweather]

Despite all the cooler than normal weather this month, CPC continues to stick to their guns for a warmer than normal winter. At least they are consistent.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Despite all the cooler than normal weather this month, CPC continues to stick to their guns for a warmer than normal winter. At least they are consistent.

Wow, what a bunch of rubes.

[Portastorm]

Euro and GFS continue to advertise a brief glancing blow of Arctic air early next week, followed by a gradual warm-up. The really cold air is heading for the Midwest and northeast U.S. next week. 00Z Euro does have the D-FW area in the 20s next Mon/Tue with highs 32F or lower, but warming to 60 degrees later in the week. Might have a shot at some snow up there early next week.

Ah yes, Heat Miser's daily attempt to burn up the hopes and dreams of winter weather lovers here. I was waiting on this.

You better hope your "gradual warm-up" happens because the hordes here are angry and I cannot keep them at bay should winter unleash its hounds next week in Texas. You may need to get on that bike of yours and pedal fast!

[wxman57]

Despite all the cooler than normal weather this month, CPC continues to stick to their guns for a warmer than normal winter. At least they are consistent.

I continue to hold that office hostage, forcing them to make forecasts of warmer weather...

[Portastorm]

Despite all the cooler than normal weather this month, CPC continues to stick to their guns for a warmer than normal winter. At least they are consistent.

Wow, what a bunch of rubes.

Yeah ... it's clearly a terrible forecast and one which will not verify. But why let actual data get in the way of a forecast, right?!

And now we know the evil clutches of Heat Miser are playing a role too!

[TheProfessor]

Despite all the cooler than normal weather this month, CPC continues to stick to their guns for a warmer than normal winter. At least they are consistent.

I continue to hold that office hostage, forcing them to make forecasts of warmer weather...

Are you holding Accuweather hostage too. They have 5 straight days of 60 degree+ weather. Though there long range predictions are terrible so I hope it will 50 degrees colder than what they are predicting.

[Portastorm]

Interesting little snippet from this morning's AFD (area forecast discussion) out of NWSFO EWX (National Weather Service Forecast Office Austin/San Antonio):

WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER ECMWF FOR EARLY NEXT WEAK
WITH A REINFORCING BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. THE GFS INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION
IN THE HILL COUNTRY LATE MONDAY-EARLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
TRACK ACROSS S TX WITH THE COLD SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE.

[gpsnowman]

Never use the Accuweather forecasts. They are nothing but garbage everyday all the time. They have no business putting that crap out IMHO. I kook at them only if I am feeling down and need a good laugh to brighten my day.

[Portastorm]

Never use the Accuweather forecasts. They are nothing but garbage everyday all the time. They have no business putting that crap out IMHO. I kook at them only if I am feeling down and need a good laugh to brighten my day.

And this brings up a good point which I think should be shared ... these Accuweather "forecasts" are nothing more than machine-driven data which is then filtered through a seasonal average algorithim. Imagine a GFS data run which is then run through another filter to keep the anomalies at a minimum and you have what Accuweather produces. I read several explanations in the near past from those who would know about how AccuWx derives these forecasts.

Now, their 3-5 day forecasts are actually done by staff mets. But beyond that ... you get the number buffet.

[wxman57]

Are you holding Accuweather hostage too. They have 5 straight days of 60 degree+ weather. Though there long range predictions are terrible so I hope it will 50 degrees colder than what they are predicting.

I must do all I can to rid Texas of this unbearably cold air. A little sunshine now and then wouldn't hurt, but that appears to be too much to ask for. Another overcast day with highs in the 40s here.

[Portastorm]

Some interesting items this morning. I'll share the graphic below of the latest predicted teleconnection indices. Some changes are afoot with the PNA progged to go from negative to slightly positive and both the WPO and EPO to go from strongly negative to neutral. I honestly don't know how accurate these forecasts are beyond several days as they do tend to change. But remember it was just 3-4 days ago when they suggested a strongly negative EPO going into mid January.

I'll also share the longer-range discussion out of the DC national weather desk for NWS. The author is the famous Paul Kocin, highly regarded as one of the best longer ranger forecasters out there. A winter weather expert as well. There continues to be challenges for forecasters as the computer models are not in agreement. Below normal temps for Texas seem likely to continue for the most part though with the worst of it to our north and east. However, there is some discussion and some model suggestion that our weather could end up more anomalous. Using srainhoutx's favorite phrase: we shall see.



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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1058 AM EST TUE DEC 31 2013

VALID 12Z FRI JAN 03 2014 - 12Z TUE JAN 07 2014

A VERY WINTRY SCENARIO IN THE EAST STARTS OFF THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST WITH A QUICK WARM UP IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE
WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED AS A NEW AND SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF COLDER
AIR BEGINS TO ENTER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS BY DAY
4/SATURDAY AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD BY SUNDAY DAY 5. WITH LARGE
UNCERTAIN IT STILL APPEARS THAT SOME FORM OF PRECIPITATION EVENT
WILL FORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS NEXT OUTBREAK OF COLD AIR ON
DAY 5 INTO DAY 6/MONDAY...WITH A HUGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FROM A
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO A MAJOR CYCLONE. BY DAY 7/TUESDAY...MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BELOW TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A CUTOFF UPPER RIDGE OVER GREENLAND/NORTHEAST CANADA WILL HELP
RETAIN AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THAT CONTINUES TO
FORCE A TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE EASTERN US TO REMAIN ON A PATH
CONDUCIVE TO SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US ON DAY 3.
WHILE THE DETAILS OF THE TROUGH EVOLUTION SEEM FAIRLY
STRAIGHTFORWARD DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
FOR THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE EVOLUTION OF A COLD CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ARE ALSO
STRAIGHTFORWARD...THE DETAILS OF THE ACTUAL TROUGH EVOLUTION AND
RESULTING SURFACE BAROCLINIC STRUCTURE REMAINS COMPLEX.
SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERAL CENTERS
OF LOW PRESSURE OF VARYING STRENGTH COMING TOGETHER TO EVENTUALLY
FORM A CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MAKE THIS A
CHALLENGING FORECAST EVEN AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. IN
GENERAL...CONTINUITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS MAINTAINED
BASED ON THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH INPUT
FROM THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS...BOTH OF WHICH MAINTAIN A SIMILAR
SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH NEARING THE EAST COAST. WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH NEARING THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING...A MULTIPLE
CENTER SURFACE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED WITH THE REMAINING
QUESTION BEING HOW INTENSE THE WESTERNMOST SURFACE LOW RESPONDS TO
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE OTHER SURFACE CENTER OR CENTERS SCOOT
FARTHER EASTWARD. IN ANY EVENT...WHATEVER SNOW IS FALLING ON
FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD OUT TO SEA DURING THE DAY
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD.

WITH A MEAN UPPER RIDGE TRENDING TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
FROM THE SHORT RANGE INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EASTWARD OVER WESTERN
CANADA WHILE ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW OVER NW CANADA ALSO BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH AND EASTWARD AS WELL. BY DAY 5...ANOTHER LARGE VORTEX
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH A HUGE MASS OF
ARCTIC AIR POISED TO MOVE SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ALSO CHARACTERIZE
THIS DEVELOPMENT WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWING THE LARGEST
AMPLITUDE AND GREATER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE ARCTIC AIR WITH
GFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY FLATTER
SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY BY DAY 6. WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF CREATES A
POTENTIALLY HISTORIC SCENARIO BY DAY 6...IT REMAINS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY SOLUTION AS IT REMAINS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE
CORRESPONDING ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION. THE 06Z GFS ACTUALLY
LOOKS MORE LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION AND IS
SOMEWHAT FOLLOWED WHILE STILL SHOWING A VERY LARGE COLD OUTBREAK
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US ON DAYS 6 INTO 7...WITH THE
DETAILS OF HOW LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ULTIMATELY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR STILL VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN
AT THIS POINT WITH A VERY MODEST SYSTEM SHOWN AT THE PRESENT TIME
BUT WILL LIKELY CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE DAYS GET CLOSER.
CHANCES ARE THAT THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ALSO BE A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT SOMEWHERE FROM THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST.

KOCIN

[Portastorm]

FWIW, the 12z GFS is suggesting wintry mischief for portions of West Central and North Texas by the middle of next week.



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[hriverajr]

12z Run of the GFS continues to show the possibility of some winter precip over central texas next Tuesday. Second run in a row that indicates this. Of course things will change but interesting. (ah portastorm beat me to it.

[wxman57]

12Z meteograms for Dallas area do indicate some freezing/frozen precip chances next Tue-Wed but no bitter cold:

[Portastorm]

12z Run of the GFS continues to show the possibility of some winter precip over central texas next Tuesday. Second run in a row that indicates this. Of course things will change but interesting. (ah portastorm beat me to it.

Yeah ... if the GFS is showing these pretty colors on the map by this weekend ... then we can get our hopes up!

[hriverajr]

It's goes against my personal experience, that if a 1050+ High pressure forms in western Canada that the cold air is going to go more east then south. Oh well will see what happens

[wxman57]

It's goes against my personal experience, that if a 1050+ High pressure forms in western Canada that the cold air is going to go more east then south. Oh well will see what happens

It depends on the upper-air flow. With a more progressive pattern (as we've been experiencing), these cold air surges tend to track off to the east and southeast rather than straight south to Texas.