Texas Winter 2013-2014

[gboudx]

that's not the cold weather most people here want to experience. Think more Buffalo-type westher:

Tonight Snow showers likely, mainly after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 17. East wind 5 to 8 mph becoming south after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Tuesday Snow showers, mainly before 1pm. High near 25. Breezy, with a west wind 11 to 16 mph increasing to 19 to 24 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tuesday Night A slight chance of snow showers before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 21 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

New Year's Day Snow showers likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 20. West wind 5 to 9 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 14. Northeast wind 9 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 15. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 3. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 12. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

[Ntxw]

60 days? More like 90 days plus

We're done for trying to poke his majesty of warmth and fire.

Back to science. NOAA's December forecast is a complete bust for Texas and that's putting it friendly. Out of this world wrong. As far as freezes this morning's freeze made it DFW's 23rd freeze tying the record between the first freeze and Jan 1st. Tomorrow's freeze should it happen (likely will) will make it the 24th and surpass 1989/2000. If January can manage another 15-20 freezes then we can start looking at 77-78 but still a way to go before then.

[srainhoutx]

I wish I was as hopeful as wxman57 that this cold pattern will be a distant memory in 60 days. Unless we see a big SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event in the next 15 days or so to eventually pulverize this never ending Polar Vortex, the pattern may continue repeating well into February or even the first 10-15 days of March. I dread getting my next natural gas heating bill.

[Ntxw]

CFSv2 suggest that will be case. Persistent warm waters in the NE Pacific allows semi permanent 500mb ridge in the region thus conversely a trough over the Hudson and Central Canada along with the rest of central NA, not going anywhere.



Europe and Asia is still waiting for their cold. -AO isn't doing squat for them all of it has drained to North America. Moscow is under record warmth. Antithesis of 2011-2012, 2012-2013


"Forget a white New Year.

Unseasonably warm weather that swept Moscow this week has melted much of the snow and will keep the temperature above freezing for the rest of the year, the federal weather service said Thursday.

The daytime temperature was forecast to reach a high of 2 to 4 degrees Celsius on Thursday, possibly setting an all-time record for the day.

The previous record for Dec. 26 was registered in 2011, when the temperature warmed up to 4.1 C, it said, Interfax reported.

Moscow hit a record 4 C on Dec. 25, passing the previous 3.1 C record set in 1910.

The warm weather is expected to last at least another week, with no significant precipitation, possibly spoiling the hopes of anyone looking forward to including snow with their fireworks and Champagne as they ring in the New Year on Tuesday night."


http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/record-warmth-to-stay-in-moscow-until-years-end/492135.html

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

YOU IDIOTS!!! I think your punishment should be to head to the corner of Portage and Main in Winnipeg tonight!!!

Did I not warn them??? Did I not tell them their wildlife would suffer (poor sea turtles)???? Did I not tell them their pipes would burst?????

[Ntxw]

YOU IDIOTS!!! I think your punishment should be to head to the corner of Portage and Main in Winnipeg tonight!!!

Did I not warn them??? Did I not tell them their wildlife would suffer (poor sea turtles)???? Did I not tell them their pipes would burst?????

Mere friendly casualties of war (the war we constantly wage on wxman57). Pfft it's only 25 below in Winnipeg, we're not happy until they are 50 below. Same for you in Assiniboia! The Yellowknife stuff in your back yard. Good job on the fans this year! We sha'll award you the golden boot!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

YOU IDIOTS!!! I think your punishment should be to head to the corner of Portage and Main in Winnipeg tonight!!!

Did I not warn them??? Did I not tell them their wildlife would suffer (poor sea turtles)???? Did I not tell them their pipes would burst?????

Mere friendly casualties of war (the war we constantly rage on wxman57). Pfft it's only 25 below in Winnipeg, we're not happy until they are 50 below. Same for you in Assiniboia! The Yellowknife stuff in your back yard. Good job on the fans this year! We sha'll award you the golden boot!

Yes I know it's -41 up there already. The Canadian boards are turning blue with joy *cough* over that little piece of news.

The windchill however in Winterpeg is supposed to hit -50 tonight. EC and TWN are having a difference of opinion right now.

Where we go may you fellows follow............

[BigB0882]

The 0z GFS must have been very boring, haha

[gpsnowman]

I was just going to ask when the late night models come out. I am bored at work and am here until 1 a.m. Hoping to get updates before going home and then to bed.

[orangeblood]

With not a lot of help from the Upper Levels, the frigid arctic cold front makes it through Texas on almost density alone according to the latest GFS. Builds a massive 1057+ HP in NW Canada and sets the stage for a ton of winter weather potential starting early next week. This is due to the arctic cold slowly building into the area over time instead of plowing through if it had a lot of upper air support with it. The latter scenario would normally dry the atmosphere out too quickly but by slowly building it can create numerous overrunning events through westerly flow.

[Jarodm12]

actually the 00z gfs looks amazing for cold weather and winter storms multiple chances and many days below freezing in n tx

[TheProfessor]

With not a lot of help from the Upper Levels, the frigid arctic cold front makes it through Texas on almost density alone according to the latest GFS. Builds a massive 1057+ HP in NW Canada and sets the stage for a ton of winter weather potential starting early next week. This is due to the arctic cold slowly building into the area over time instead of plowing through if it had a lot of upper air support with it. The latter scenario would normally dry the atmosphere out too quickly but by slowly building it can create numerous overrunning events through westerly flow.

How long has the cold air been building? Or has it not start building yet.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

With not a lot of help from the Upper Levels, the frigid arctic cold front makes it through Texas on almost density alone according to the latest GFS. Builds a massive 1057+ HP in NW Canada and sets the stage for a ton of winter weather potential starting early next week. This is due to the arctic cold slowly building into the area over time instead of plowing through if it had a lot of upper air support with it. The latter scenario would normally dry the atmosphere out too quickly but by slowly building it can create numerous overrunning events through westerly flow.

How long has the cold air been building? Or has it not start building yet.

Texans:

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Those prairie (Saskatchewan) winds are sure taking a round and about snakey trip way down there:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... 37.65,1919

[vbhoutex]

I wish I was as hopeful as wxman57 that this cold pattern will be a distant memory in 60 days. Unless we see a big SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event in the next 15 days or so to eventually pulverize this never ending Polar Vortex, the pattern may continue repeating well into February or even the first 10-15 days of March. I dread getting my next natural gas heating bill.

Yep, I fear my electric bill savings will be wiped out if the trend I think is setting up continues.

[TheProfessor]

Are the models hinting at any sub zero temperatures for North Texas?

[Ntxw]

Mr Cavanaugh lays it out pretty well for all of us. Bears watch, more model watching...frame clicking...screaming at the screen for the 0c line to cross your little patch of home with greens and yellows to pop over! There will likely be several potential winter storms to track, possibly down to I-10.


Snippet

THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN INDICATE THAT THIS WEEKENDS TROUGH SINKS
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WITH SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...BOTH MODELS ADVERTISE RELATIVELY STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850 TO 700 MB REFLECTION
OF THE COLD FRONT HANGING UP ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS THE RED
RIVER DURING THIS TIME. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW...DEPENDING ON
HOW COLD IT IS BELOW THE 850 MB LEVEL.

AT THIS TIME JUST WENT AHEAD WITH A RAIN OR SNOW MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IN EXACT THERMAL PROFILES 5 DAYS OUT IS
FAIRLY LOW. EITHER WAY...THE BEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA...SO CHANCES FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
LOOK LOW AT THIS TIME. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO ITS
TRACK COULD MAKE ACCUMULATING SNOW MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD
START TO THE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS OUR WEEKEND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
NORTHEAST AND INTERACTS WITH A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PROGGED TO SINK SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT A SECOND STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...SENDING SOME
FORM OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT WE WILL START OUT NEXT WEEK WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF NEXT
WEEKS ARCTIC AIRMASS FOR NORTH TEXAS REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS PRETTY QUICK TO
MODIFY OVER THE CWA WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE INITIAL
ARCTIC FRONT...BUT HANGS ONTO THE ARCTIC AIRMASS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. EITHER WAY THE BULK OF THE REALLY DEEP COLD AIR LOOKS TO
REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BASED ON 00Z MODEL RUNS...AND
MOST GUIDANCE IS DRY...SO THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.

CAVANAUGH

[srainhoutx]

Not a lot of changes overnight via the various operational/ensemble guidance. The next cold front arrives late New Years Day into Thursday with cloudy/cool conditions remaining entrenched across most of our Region. Some slight moderation this weekend before the next front arrives late Sunday into Monday. There may be a chance of rain and snow mixing across N Texas Saturday night into early Sunday, but more likely N of the Red River Valley. There is about a 24 hour timing spread via the models with the Euro being faster -vs- the GFS. Typically the faster solution is more correct with cold dense air draining S, so think the Euro has the timing somewhat right. Next Tuesday into Wednesday could be very cold offering the coldest air of the season...so far.

The coldest air still looks to be to our NE, but that will make little difference because it looks to be very chilly here in our Region as well. The cold looks to linger well into the mid January time frame with multiple short wave/upper air disturbances in the northerly flow dropping S and bringing re enforcing cold fronts and precip chances every few days with a progressive pattern of a parade of storms rotating around the Polar Vortex and a strong Gulf of Alaska High Pressure Ridge holding steady allowing multiple 1050-1060mb Arctic High pressure cells to drop into the Inter Mountain West and Plains. It may be time to escape to the S Pacific or the Florida Keys for those looking for warmer weather.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I know this is the Texas board but this relates to everyone getting in on the possible artic outbreak. Our local nws office here in se LA had a very uncharacteristic and unusually long, although good long term discussion about it this morning, whereas yesterday wasn't even mentioned. I'm not getting my hopes yet, still in the I will believe it when I see it camp.

LONG TERM...WELL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST THIS IS ABOUT
AS ROUGH A FCST AS ONE CAN GET. BASICALLY THERE IS NO AGREEMENT B/T
THE GFS AND ECMWF BY SAT EVNG. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT WE WILL SEE
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME (AND TIME
MEANS YEARS IN THIS CONTEXT) AND COULD APPROACH RECORDS. THIS IS
STILL 6 AND 7 DAYS AWAY AND EVEN THOUGH THE MDLS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON DAY 5 WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS.
THAT SAID WE HAVE PUT MORE WEIGHT FROM THE ECMWF AS IT DOES HAVE
STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE CMC ALONG WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY. THE DGEX
IS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE MAIN CULPRIT AS WE HEAD INTO SUN WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION
OF A STRONG S/W COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WHICH WILL ONLY BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER AIR NETWORK FRI NIGHT. THIS APPEARS
THE BE WHERE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHARPLY DIVERGE. THE ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH THIS S/W AND DIGS IT ACROSS INTO THE 4 CORNERS DURING
THE DAY SAT AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUN AND THUS HELPS THE L/W TROUGH DIG ACROSS THE
ERN CONUS. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER WITH THIS LEAD S/W AND MOVES
IT THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY BY SUN MORNING.

IF THIS S/W IS STRONG AND DIGS AS FAR AS THE ECMWF SUGGEST IT WILL
LEAD TO A STRONG SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ARKLATEX AND THEN DRIVE
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUN AFTN/EVNG. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND IT BUT THIS WOULD ONLY BE THE BEGINNING AS A FRIGID
ARCTIC AIRMASS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS THE BORDER AND INTO THE PLAINS
WILL BE ABOUT 24 HRS BEHIND. THE L/W TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH A POLAR VORTEX EVENTUALLY SITTING OVER THE
GRT LAKES REGION AND NRLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. THIS WOULD
DRIVE THAT ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTH AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SOME
OF THE LL TEMPS THAT ARE BEING SUGGESTED BY THE RAW ECMWF ARE RATHER
COLD AND COULD SPELL SOME SIGNIFICANT COLD TEMPS FOR OUR AREA SUN
NIGHT THROUGH TUE. WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS AND
HOPEFULLY THE MDLS WILL GET MORE INLINE WITH A SOLN. /CAB/

[wxman57]

Euro and GFS continue to advertise a brief glancing blow of Arctic air early next week, followed by a gradual warm-up. The really cold air is heading for the Midwest and northeast U.S. next week. 00Z Euro does have the D-FW area in the 20s next Mon/Tue with highs 32F or lower, but warming to 60 degrees later in the week. Might have a shot at some snow up there early next week.