Texas Winter 2013-2014

[TexasF6]

Porta, why are the models trying to underwhelm this next burst of cold air? I saw a local team illustrate their run with frontal passage doing zilch to temperatures??

[Portastorm]

Porta, why are the models trying to underwhelm this next burst of cold air? I saw a local team illustrate their run with frontal passage doing zilch to temperatures??

I honestly don't know. But I do know that while many of us were focused on the event at hand, the models were doing a slow uptick in temps for early next week as compared to what we were seeing late last week. They're obviously seeing something. Don't forget though that they may be off somewhat in their temp progs. As I wrote earlier today, none of the models showed Austin staying at or below freezing for 38 consecutive hours. We have a healthy snow/ice pack to our north and northwest and perhaps that will help keep the next front as cold or colder than progged.

Maybe our friend wxman57 (or one of our other pro mets) will opine.

[katheria]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 081735
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1135 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

.UPDATE...
WILL ALLOW THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. GUIDANCE NOW
SUGGESTING THAT FOG WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT PRIOR TO MONDAY
MORNING/S COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WILL INCLUDE
THAT IN AFTERNOON PACKAGE. 84

[Rgv20]

Joe Bastardi posted the 11-15 day 500mb Anomalies for 0z ECMWF Ensemble Control Run....Looks like we could see another cold snap just in time for the Christmas Holidays!

[orangeblood]

Matches up fairly well with the GFS ensembles day 12

I realize it's still in LaLa land range but Last Night's Euro EC couldn't paint a better setup for winter weather across the southern plains right before Christmas

[Ntxw]

I've beaten this idea down like crazy but it's worth noting yet again. The Northeast Pacific continues to experience something special, once in a life event for this region. It is yet still the warmest anomalies relative to average in the winter months that I can find, up there with 1899 and getting warmer.

[katheria]

yep just saw that myself....

know this is a little off topic maybe...
has anyone kept track of what actually happens compared to what both farmers almanac shows for that time period? always wondered how they come up with the forecasts....


24th-27th. Stormy for Christmas from New Mexico into Texas
the other one:
Dec 20-25: Snow north, rain south, then sunny, cold;

jan
8th-11th. Heavy rain or wintry mix.
12th-15th. Storm from Gulf of Mexico brings moderate rain and snow for eastern Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Frigid air brings significant freeze as far as south Texas.

[gboudx]

Off topic, but the Lions/Eagles game is being played in sneaux most of us dream of.

[orangeblood]

For you winter weather lovers - Check out the Lions - Eagles game on Fox

[aggiecutter]

For you winter weather lovers - Check out the Lions - Eagles game on Fox

I've never seen it snow that hard in my life, just incredible.

[katheria]

-removed-:

north texas will wake up with 15" of snow on the ground x-mas morning

dang it, i guess my trip to the dark side did not last too long.it was just tooo hot... sorry wxman57.......

already ready for more winter

[Portastorm]

For you winter weather lovers - Check out the Lions - Eagles game on Fox

I've never seen it snow that hard in my life, just incredible.

You guys beat me to it ... I just hopped on here to tell everyone to turn their TVs on to Fox. What an amazing game, huh?! Who doesn't love snow games. Old time football, baby. Now ... we just need to get something like that to happen down here. Then we can have a Snow Bowl -- Heat Miser and his crew versus the rest of us!

I actually was a fan at a game one time with snow like this ... late 70s up in Cleveland against, ironically enough, the Houston Oilers.

[orangeblood]

For you winter weather lovers - Check out the Lions - Eagles game on Fox

I've never seen it snow that hard in my life, just incredible.

What's crazy is that cold air will get eroded away and all of that snow is supposed to change to rain later this evening.

[wxman57]

I saved those GFS meteograms for Austin, Portastorm. The GFS actually did quite well with its Austin forecast. On the 4th, it had sub-freezing temps from 9PM Friday (6th) to near 6AM Sunday (33 hrs). And on Thursday morning at 12AM, the 5th, it had Austin temps dropping to 32F at 6pm Friday and staying below freezing until 8am Sunday (38 hrs).

[iorange55]

Went out to the woods today and took some pictures.

http://imgur.com/a/FlDN5

[TheProfessor]

Off Topic but there is a show on ion called christmas tornado where tornadoes strike north texas on christmas.

[Portastorm]

I saved those GFS meteograms for Austin, Portastorm. The GFS actually did quite well with its Austin forecast. On the 4th, it had sub-freezing temps from 9PM Friday (6th) to near 6AM Sunday (33 hrs). And on Thursday morning at 12AM, the 5th, it had Austin temps dropping to 32F at 6pm Friday and staying below freezing until 8am Sunday (38 hrs).
(images deleted)

There you go again, using factual-supported arguments against my anecdotal-driven drivel! Stop that!!

Actually and all kidding aside, thanks for posting that. I am impressed by the GFS and what you showed there. I should have looked back at the information prior to opening my big mouth.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Off Topic but there is a show on ion called christmas tornado where tornadoes strike north texas on christmas.

I will only watch if there are sharks swept up into the tornados.

[katheria]

ahh dang it ur a little late its a movie that started at noon

[ravyrn]

Just south of Alvord on 287