Texas Winter 2013-2014

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The latest RAP is increasing the precip amounts for north Texas and southern Oklahoma.

[Portastorm]

31 deg in McKinney with light freezing rain mixed with sleet. My Webber has a coating of ice on it.

Don't feel bad... happens to me all the time when I forget to check my fly.

Kludge, please delete this post and save me the trouble of doing it. Thanks.

[gboudx]

Update from jeff:

Arctic front clearly being felt across the region this afternoon with Galveston a balmy 72 and College Station 40.

Boundary has continued its southward push today and will reach the coast and pass offshore in the next few hours. Temperatures have been heading down quickly behind the frontal passage with many areas N of I-10 in the 40’s and the sub-40 degree line moving into the College Station and Huntsville areas. Freezing line is just nearing Dallas at this time with accumulations of ice and sleet ongoing just NW and N of Dallas and this will overtake much of N TX by this evening….things are going to get really bad in this part of the state tonight into Friday.

Expect to begin to see light to moderate rainfall develop later this evening as overrunning process begins to ramp up. Warm moist air will flow northward from the Gulf of Mexico over the top of the cold dome at the surface producing periods of rain. Surface temperatures will continue to fall all night as cold air advection brings the colder air from the north into the region. Could be very close to freezing by early Friday morning from College Station to Huntsville with some light icing possible. Given warm grounds do not think this is going to cause any major problems, but even a little ice on a bridge or overpass is dangerous. Much bigger concern is across N/NE TX where significant ice accumulation is almost certain at this point with major disruption to surface travel, air travel, and power expected.

NW of Columbus to Conroe to Livingston:

Cold air continues to filter southward on Saturday with high temperatures ranging from a couple degrees above freezing around College Station to 35-37 metro Houston to 39-42 along the coast. Next jet disturbance moves into the area late Saturday with another batch of light rain and drizzle. Surface temperatures are expected to cool to freezing NW of a line from Columbus to Hempstead to Conroe and this brings more of the area into the potential for freezing rain and light ice accumulation. A couple of factors we must consider:

1) The air above the surface is going to be very warm (40-50 degree range) and this will result in “warm” rain falling into the near surface freezing layer. With surface temperatures very marginal (30-32) from NW of Columbus to Livingston not sure we will see a whole lot of ice as the falling water itself is warm and will have to cool to the freezing point.

2) Ground temperatures are warm from the recent warm spell and will only slowly cool. Not expecting any ice at any time on surfaces in contact with the ground. Elevated surfaces such as trees, power lines, roof tops, bridge, and overpasses, vehicles stand the best potential for light icing

3) General precipitation amounts are expected to be light running in the .05 to .20 inch range. This precipitation must also fall when the surface temperature is at or below freezing to produce ice which will mainly be from roughly 700-900pm Saturday to about 900-1000am Sunday NW of a line from Columbus to Livingston.

The Harris County and the metro Houston Area:

Based on everything I have looked at this afternoon the surface temperature is forecast to be in the 33-37 degree range Saturday into Sunday morning which does not support any ice accumulation. Would not be totally surprised to see the far W/NW/N parts of the county drop to 32 or 31 Sunday morning, but think any icing will be very minor and short lived.

There remains uncertainty as to where exactly the freezing line will be at any given time period throughout the next 72 hours and this will have an effect on the potential impacts across the region. While this is technically the “magic line” between rain and ice, even locations that fall to freezing will likely only see minor impacts given the light amounts of precipitation expected and the warm grounds. With that said it does not take much ice to cause problems on bridges and overpasses.

I made it home to Rockwall with no issues. As I was outside making some final preps, it started sleeting. There was some rain mixed in, but it was mostly sleet. If only it could stay this way. I took some "before" pics.

[Annie Oakley]

Yes we did like you............

[Portastorm]

ISDs across the Metroplex are announcing they'll be closed tomorrow ... I'm sure there are many kids rejoicing at the moment! And parents putting their heads in their hands.

[gpsnowman]

DISD schools closed tomorrow. Looks like Porta beat me to the punch. Only a matter of time before GPISD closes. Now, who stays home from work to watch the kids, me or my wife?

[ludosc]

Freezing rain just west of downtown fort worth. Can see I-30 just west of Montgomery from my house and traffic is moving vert slowly.

[gpsnowman]

And GPISD is closed. Lovely.

[ndale]

Way to go, weatherdude ... you beat me to it!

Gotta give credit when I think it is due. EWX did a nice job on their forecast discussion. I agree entirely with their thoughts and they have enough cautionary language in their AFD to give them room to upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning if and when it is needed. They also have thrown out yesterday's silly idea that early next week would be moderating and warmer and dry. Models clearly show otherwise now.

Have to agree they made a lot of sense with their write-up.

[ludosc]

And GPISD is closed. Lovely.

come on FWISD...don't hold out on me now...

[aggiecutter]

Looks like Texarkana will be an ice house by this time tomorrow. It's currently 36 degrees and dropping steadily. Freezing temperatures should be here between 10 and midnight. The latest models suggest around an inch or so of rain will fall into below freezing temperatures. The latest update from the NWS in Shreveport is below:

"URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
409 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

...ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN SEGMENTED INTO TWO DIFFERENT START
TIMES FOR THE INITIAL COUNTIES...BEGINNING THIS LATE AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND AT MIDNIGHT FOR
ALL LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM TYLER AND LINDEN
TEXAS...TO LEWISVILLE AND PRESCOTT ARKANSAS...

THE ARCTIC COLD AIR CONTINUES DEEPEN...MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG
I-30. SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO FREEZING
AND BELOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS. BELOW FREEZING READINGS ARE EXPECTED WARNING AREA
WIDE BY MIDNIGHT. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL SEE THE INITIAL
IMPACTS BY THIS EVENING AND MANY OTHER CHILLED SURFACES...BUT
WARMER ROADS SHOULD BE FINE UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT...ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NORTHWEST OF THE I-30
COULD TOTAL NEAR THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. WHILE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-30...ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN COULD APPROACH ONE
HALF TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE WARNING."

[orangeblood]

The radar returns should really start to light up southwest of the Metroplex over the next few hours and then really get cranking around 9-10pm. SREF models have completely changed their tune, almost doubling their precip output across North Texas - most areas 0.75 - 1.25 of an inch next 12-15 hours according to the Short Range Ensembles

[Portastorm]

I know you well enough to know you've taken the proper precautions already, aggiecutter. That being said, good luck, please be safe, and keep active on the board here and let us know how things are up there in the birthplace of Michael Wacha.

[gpsnowman]

The light rain we have had in south Grand Prairie is starting to freeze. My metal table on the back porch has a layer of solid ice on it. Uh-oh.

[ludosc]

freezing rain has switched over to all sleet at my house near I-30 & Montgomery

[cheezyWXguy]

man the radar is really starting to fill in. looks like were getting ready to enter the main event.

[SouthernMet]

man the radar is really starting to fill in. looks like were getting ready to enter the main event.

Main event comes tonight after Midnight, before 6 am , per guidance & nws. All this is in addition, as some pointed out by saying the models underestimated the coverage.

[ludosc]

Samantha Davies ‏@SDaviesNBC5 4m
#Grapevine approx 15 vehicles in an accident on 121 SB blocking ramp to 635 EB. #DFWTraffic @NBCDFW

[ColdFusion]

man the radar is really starting to fill in. looks like were getting ready to enter the main event.

Hm, I was just about to post it looked like we were in for a bit of a dry spell, since its moving off the NE, there doesnt seem to be a whole heck of a lot to SW to cover us in a little while. Not saying it wont redevelop later, but to me it looked like a pause in the precip was coming for Dallas.

_______________________
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[Ellsey]

My mailbox was frozen shut and has small icicles. The sidewalk was still ok though. Looks like things are going downhill pretty quickly though.