Texas Winter 2013-2014

[TwisterFanatic]

18z GFS has about 1.00 QPF for Dallas. Give or take a little.

[Portastorm]

IMPORTANT

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[Ntxw]

18z GFS has about 1.00 QPF for Dallas. Give or take a little.

Between 1 and 1.5 total QPF

[TwisterFanatic]

18z GFS has about 1.00 QPF for Dallas. Give or take a little.

Between 1 and 1.5 total QPF

Ok, give a .5 inch. Jeez

[Texas Snowman]

18z GFS has about 1.00 QPF for Dallas. Give or take a little.

Between 1 and 1.5 total QPF

Ouch, that would not be good.

[joshskeety]

Now if the 18z GFS verifies.. DFW is in trouble... 1.10 QPF from Mineral Wells to 1.20 in the Metroplex..

Now if that is ALL ice.. It would be pretty devastating..

At this point its just how much mixing there will be in the atmosphere and waiting for GFS surface temps..

Josh

[orangeblood]

18z GFS has about 1.00 QPF for Dallas. Give or take a little.

Between 1 and 1.5 total QPF

Depicts the exact scenario the FW NWS office discussed this afternoon....bringing heavy precip from west to east across the metroplex early Friday Morning.

[Kelarie]

From Shreveport NWS...

Ice Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
313 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013


...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM TYLER AND LINDEN TEXAS...TO LEWISVILLE AND PRESCOTT ARKANSAS...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. RAIN WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO DROP BELOW FREEZING BY THURSDAY EVENING...NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. WITH RAIN INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE SUBFREEZING AIRMASS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE COLD RAIN BECOMING FREEZING RAIN. ICE ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR COULD EXCEED ONE HALF INCH. WHILE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR...ICE ACCUMULATION FROM
FREEZING RAIN COULD APPROACH ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070-071-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124-125-136-051200-/O.NEW.KSHV.IS.W.0003.131206T0000Z-131207T0000Z/

SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-SMITH-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...GILMER...TYLER

313 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY.

* EVENT...FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN ACCUMULATING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH ICE ACCUMULATION NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF ONE HALF INCH NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR...ICE ACCUMULATION NEAR ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...6 PM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY EVENING.

* IMPACT...DUE TO GROUND WARMTH...ICE ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE ON ELEVATED OBJECTS SUCH AS BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...TREES AND ELECTRICAL LINES. HOWEVER...IF THE TEMPERATURE CAN STAY BELOW FREEZING LONG ENOUGH INTO SATURDAY...A FEW SECONDARY ROADWAYS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT ADD TO THE DANGER.

[Ntxw]

Lets not forget the temperatures. Hard freeze and no doubt the roads will not survive these temps urban heat island or not.

DFW forecast

****
Thursday Night: A chance of rain before 7pm, then rain or freezing rain. Low around 26. North wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New ice accumulation of around a 0.2 of an inch possible.

Friday: Rain or freezing rain before 7am, then a chance of sleet between 7am and 1pm, then a slight chance of freezing rain and sleet after 1pm. High near 29. North wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Friday Night: A slight chance of freezing rain and sleet before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: A slight chance of sleet between 7am and 1pm, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a steady temperature around 22. North northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday Night: A chance of freezing rain and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday: A chance of freezing rain and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 23. West northwest wind 5 to 15 mph becoming north northeast after midnight.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 34.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 15.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 34.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 19.

Still questions about how low it will get early next week depending on ice/snow on the ground

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

I am in McKinney and the wind shift just occurred. Don't have a thermometer, but taking my car to get new tires, temp dropped 5 degrees in the few minutes I was inside.

[Cuda17]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
352 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
BRISK ONSHORE WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST AND AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY
AS THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY AT DAYBREAK WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE HOUSTON METRO AREA BY
MIDDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S BY SUNSET. LIGHT
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS
THE REGION AS A JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND WE FALL
INTO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE
SITUATION IS STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN...THERE IS A CHANCE TO SEE
SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION MIXED IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ACROSS
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM...TO
CONROE...TO LIVINGSTON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN THE
PRIMARY WINTER THREAT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW
AND LIKELY TOO WARM FOR SLEET...GIVEN THE VERY SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT REACHES THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
JUST A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM 24 HOURS AGO BUT IT WILL STILL
SUPPORT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE
FORECAST LOWS FOR TUESDAY MORNING ARE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...WHICH WOULD BE SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN IN NEARLY 3 YEARS...SINCE FEBRUARY 2011.

[joshskeety]

Twisterdata not available yet for 18z GFS.. Hopefully soon.. But if I input the NAM numbers for the same time period the warm nose towards the end looks more like sleet than freezing rain.. Temps west of the Metroplex are 25-26 degrees.. 27-28 in the Metroplex during the time of most of the moisture.. Not good...

[Kelarie]

and the write up from Shreveport NWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
336 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER NICE WARM DECEMBER DAY ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. THIS WILL BE COMING TO AN ABRUPT END LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS A SHALLOW BUT FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS SPILLS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY AS OF 21Z WAS LOCATED
FROM NEAR FSM TO DUA AND MWL BUT THE REAL FRIGID AIR LAGS THE FRONT A GOOD WAYS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME POST FRONTAL RAIN OR SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN THIRD. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. ALL BETS ARE OFF THURSDAY NIGHT HOWEVER.

RAIN REALLY PICKS UP IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER FROM A VERY COLD RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR EXTREME NW ZONES THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE COLD SHALLOW WEDGE OF SUBFREEZING AIR BLEEDS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR. JUST SOUTH OF THE CORRIDOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE POSTED AN ICE STORM WARNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A TYLER...LINDEN TEXAS...TO LEWISVILLE...PRESCOTT ARKANSAS LINE FROM 00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT. IT WAS REALLY BORDERLINE BRINGING THE WARNING DOWN TO SMITH COUNTY BUT AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...IT WAS JUST TOO
CLOSE TO CALL. FEEL LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WILL STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TO CALL THE WEATHER TYPE JUST RAIN BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED BY FORECASTERS AS I`M NOT FAR FROM FREEZING RAIN TEMPERATURE WISE AT GGG AND SHV. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT AREAS EAST OF THE WARNING MAY SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE MOISTURE
PULLS OUT. TEMPERATURES REALLY PLUMMET FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

I WISH I COULD SAY THAT WE ARE DONE WITH THIS EVENT AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT BUT UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE NOT. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUBTLE RIPPLES IN THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE TO RAPIDLY RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AREAWIDE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL WATCHES/WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR THE SECOND EVENT THAT HAS THE POSSIBILITY TO ENCOMPASS MUCH MORE OF THE REGION THAN THE EVENT WARNED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY...THUS SHUTTING DOWN OUR MOISTURE RETURN
BUT COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION TODAY FWD...TSA...LZK AND JAN. FORECAST PACKAGE ALREADY SENT.

[iorange55]

Saw this comment on one of Steve McCauley's post and thought I'd share it here. Some good advice...

Hello from Vermont. For those of you with fireplaces I suggest you get a few bundles of firewood, fill your bathtub with water so you can flush your toilet, basically make preparation as you would for a hurricane. Also, obtain some nice Islay single malt, schnapps, B&B liquor or brandy if you like it, and/or a nice bottle of port.

With ice assume your power will go out, possibly for hours. Lots of rock salt will be handy, and large bags of cat litter will enable you to get your car unstuck.

[TrekkerCC]

Remember -

While Sleet has less of impact than straight freezing rain (less trees/power outages), if it is mostly or all sleet, then it can still be significant enough to be major trouble for the area. In Feb 2011, we had sleet in the Dallas side while Ft. Worth got sleet and snow mix. It was still significant enough (0.5" to 1" of Sleet in Dallas) to encase the roadways with ice and shutdown the city for about four or five days (plus a helping of snow on Friday before the Super Bowl), especially if the cold sets in like it did in Feb 2011. So don't be dismissing sleet if it turns out that is the predominate precipitation type for this event.

[South Texas Storms]

The 18z GFS is indicating that several hours of freezing rain is possible in Austin, San Antonio, and College Station on Saturday.
It even shows sleet possible for Rgv on Tuesday morning!

[TheProfessor]

So if the qpf is all ice, what would 1.2 in of ice do to the metroplex? If it occurs it looks like schools could be canceled on Monday and maybe Tuesday

[Portastorm]

Need some help from y'all ... do you remember what page of this thread had that great chart about impacts on the public during a winter weather event? I'd like to pin that chart so that we all can use it as good information.

[Meteorcane]

Need some help from y'all ... do you remember what page of this thread had that great chart about impacts on the public during a winter weather event? I'd like to pin that chart so that we all can use it as good information.

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[Portastorm]

Need some help from y'all ... do you remember what page of this thread had that great chart about impacts on the public during a winter weather event? I'd like to pin that chart so that we all can use it as good information.

Page 21

Much obliged ... thank you!